Member Info for meshtrader

Jensen had the opp to withhold divs for much longer. It was his chance.
The results are just OK, but paying out div isn't justified when he has increased liabilities by some 600m. If this was your own business, you would have not taken on more debt to pay yourself, unless of course you were starving:)

Again, my own view is that the company should have taken a more prudent approach in beefing up its cash position and continuing paying down its debt. But it was not to be. It could very well be that this decision was influenced by Drahi.

Really a nonsense article, sorry!
It acknowledges that 50% of the debt is as a direct result to Vods acquisition of Liberty Global a couple of year's ago. It's basically a re-hash and re-phrased of the key wordings of the Vod quarterly and annual report. No analysis. Zilch!
A quick googling of the author revelas the following: A bachelors of art degree from 2016-2019 and has since changed jobs 3 times as a writer. Go figure.

"Mesh - You could always just google VOD dividend cut to read what is current common knowledge or Pfens recent post. Head out of the sand mate a cut is on the cards. Please don’t get me wrong I think it would be a disaster for the SP but these boards are read by people who want information before they invest. If dividend income is important to those potential investors then they can make a balanced decision based on accurate information."
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So still no link?! A div cut is a likely scenario for any div paying entity.

Let's assume they cut the div to 0 for 2 years. What do you think is likely to happen to the sp? It may wobble initially, but it's bound to rise as capital is accumulated. Look what happened to the BT sp when they announced an overhaul last year. It doubled!

I analyse my investments both on a fundamental as well as a technical level. I am always open to opposing views, but please present facts and figures and not wishful thinking.

Looking at the long term chart. It appears the dive commencing in June 2015, reversed this time last year. We appear to have completed the 2nd wave down (time will tell!) and the 3rd wave (multi/month if not year) up kicking in soon, taking us way beyond the 140 levels.

Again, if the 104 level holds and we bottom out, the technicals are supporting the above as there are tons of bullish divergences in play.

We also have the underpinnings of the fundamentals to support such aggressive reversal. All in all this is a proper accumulation opp IMO.

Good luck!

"I read that a dividend cut here is now rated at 50/50, sadly as I posted about some weeks ago. I am strongly of the opinion that the market knows something we don’t & this is driving the SP down. And yet our highly paid BOD’s remain silent !!!!"
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Seriously all this nonsense misinformation. Where did you read that the likelihood of a dividend cut is 50/50? Where?

No wonder we have the castle in the sky pricing in the form of Tesla's $1.2 Trillion valuation, because delusion reins supreme in the markets.

After having skimmed through the report, it appears they throwing the kitchen sink into the fire to wash their hands off risk and damage to earnings moving forward.

On the topic of mark to market write downs, it appears under the IFRS guidelines, companies are obligated to provide the current market value of the derivative trade (AKA the hedge element), but not the main long term contract, hence the discrepancy and a rather large reported "loss" without accounting and counterbalancing this trade with its opposing trade.

As with RDS results, this is an accounting measure, however, BP seem to have entered into some riskier trade or are these 100% hedged trades? I doubt these are 100% hedged as trading, traditionally, makes up a significant portion of BP's earning. At least they way it appears and I haven't back tested this with prior years' movement in current asset/liabilities movements. If you look up this section, you will see each side has grown by a whopping 20billion since the last quarter. It's just the sheer size of such change that stands out to me and warrants further inspection IMO. All in all, Looney is making a case that these are fully hedge positions and not trades gone wrong.

As investors, one has to be hyper sensitive to anomalies, so would welcome opposing views.

Disclaimer; I am fully invested in BP and RDS, but really dislike when curve balls are thrown such as this one.

Here is a link in case: https://www.vodafone.com/business/news-and-insights/analyst-views/vodafone-named-a-leader-in-2021-gartner-magic-quadrant-for-managed-iot-connectivity-services

"I'm heavily invested in Vodafone too, there wont be just one Mobile provider benefiting, VMO2, BT, Vodafone will all benefit. Because of BT's incumbent advantage, I believe they will benefit most in the UK."
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Agreed, but if you look at tech vendors in need of connectivity, i.e. tsla, then it makes a lot more sense for these sign up a global deal with those who can offer a global coverage rather than a local one only. No doubt BT will be getting into this sector shortly. Right now vod is the global leader according to the Gartner Magic Quadrant report.

Fleccy, on the IoT side of things and TaaS, Vod is the leader by a mile. They are investing heavily in these emerging technologies.

Surreal world we live in. As of today's closing share price, vod is priced at the incredible 2xEBITDA.
This share is gagging to be snapped up.

"Absolute joke...... I think the markets are now run by crypto traders who expect companies to quadruple their earnings over night...."
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I would love to hear how the stock market is run by "crypto" traders? I just hope you are not referring to the same ilk at Robinhood who have on average around $200 in their accounts.

"RDS released some bad news 6 weeks ago when they tried to warn investors not to get their hopes before the Q3 results."
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Seriously, what was bad about these figures?? FCF not good enough? Headline grabbers like profit is all about accounting. Look at the number of years Amazon went without posting a single dime of profits and the baam. Once you start appreciating how complans and KPIs are attached to certain financial key metrics you will realise how some listed companies game the stock market to the detriment of investors. Shell and Unilever are two great examples of how management should behave and handle other peoples money.

"I focus on Cash Flow from Operations (CFFO), as I believe, do most analysts and large investors because it is the cleanest measure that strips out any accounting adjustments and shines light on cash flow conversion."
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Spot on!
Based on adjusted earnings the ROCE is ca 8.5%
Current ratio at ca 135% significantly higher than last Q
Ned debt reduced by a whopping 8billion!

The headline missed net profit is misguided as the company is cleverly navigating to minimise its tax liabilities while paying down debt and increasing div. I was listening live to CNBC, whose reporters have no clue how to read the financial raw details lol

"Tele2 came out with a decent set of results this morning, and is currently down 3.5%.
The Telecom Sector is getting hammered whoever the provider is. It's just a matter of waiting out the market, irrespective of whatever Ted, Red, or whoever says. I'm just going to keep topping up as and when funds are available, until such time as the sector takes an upward turn."
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Fleccy, tele2 is way pumped compared to Vod. A disjointed orchestra of price action in the continent. Then again, Tele2's major shareholder(s) are the heirs to Stenbeck, who will simply top up if and when the sp drops below their own pre-defined fair value.

Vod and BT lack the backbone that many of other companies, where a substantial potion of the shares are owned by private families - with great interest in propelling the business forward.

Re. US direct investment abroad. Would love to read the updated version of this: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/RS21118.pdf

The dynamics certainly have changed since 2017.

"Vodafone currently sitting around 111p, Lloyds back down to 44.87. UK stocks popular with retail investors are getting hammered. BT stock may be in the midst of a shakeout, but it isn't the only one. The big players game the psychology of investors; Many who invested, thinking an end in sight to the Pandemic would see stock prices normalise, will have their confidence shaken. Personally I've glued myself to my investments, or holding with Diamond hands, or any other metaphor for holding through thick and thin. They just mentioned BT on CNBC, with the presenter saying he didn't see any obvious reason for BT's drop today; Finishing by saying, no doubt something will come out in the news later."
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Fleccy not sure if I agree with the statement about UK investor's being loyal to the backbone enterprises of the country. Actually, quite the contrary. I recall I only recently read an article that over 70% are invested elsewhere, mainly US.

Such is the hype and mania of the US markets that many risk losing their shirts three times. They lost huge sums during the financials crisis, from which many of these staple UK stocks never recovered, and when the NSDQ collapses, which it will, it'll be the third destruction of wealth in 14 years.

IMO the biggest strategic mistake by many UK funds is their lack of commitment to their own native eco system(UK). An American would rather commit suicide than commit to pumping up other nations. Yup, they are very nationalistic in case pundits were unaware of it.

"Why bother posting a negative post about another investor's strategy. I don't see the point. Snide comments are never clever even if you think you will look so in posting them."
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Simple really, the only winners of volatility and frequent trading are brokers. They populate these boards and have an army of lieutenants through the likes of CNBC, Bloomy etc nudging you to become trigger happy. Their pay checks are 100% correlated with how frequently* you trade as a punter/gambler.

So yes, It does bother me when I read irrational comments and reasons why one should go long or short based on no data and not facts to back these statements up.

*there are ways to consistently profit from high frequency trading, but then again, you won't be a human. Machines do that.

How a gambler evaluates his performance; "if Magnus Carlsen had never played chess, my bet on Fabiano Caruana becoming the world champ would had yielded a big return"

Funny to read all these desperate "traders" who are trading beyond their capacity and means through leverage.

How do you know you have nothing better to do, and in fact, not making any real returns? You are logged in here all the time and post comments frequently.

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

"Buy more, hold etc. this is still a very cheap share price - we'll be seeing £7+ moving foward"
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lol based on what, wishful thinking? You do realise there are now almost 10 times more share in circulation?