Member Info for meshtrader

Agreed with fleccy, RR is massively over valued.

Castle in the sky chasers. Good luck to them, cause at these levels they need all the luck in the world.

Savage

"I too just booked a sale for profit. 7218x shares sold off for 71.712p each"

--

That doesn't even cover the tip I paid for lunch! Lol

Good luck!

Goldman Sukks are in it to make money. They thrive on volatility like the rest of the vulture investment banking sector.

The dominant strategy for Vodafone right now is to use excess cash to buy back shares.

Here is my prediction - 1.60+ in the next 18 months.

Renewals are evenly distributed across quarters with slight skewness in the last quarter of the year. Don't see that as an unreasonable assumption.

The big picture is that the company has turned a corner. Thats my focus.

I dont have the numbers to fall back on, but I would be rather surprised if contracts are not evenly spread across the year with a slight skewness in q3.

Vodafone is not a retailer with volatility in seasonality. A steady ship. Of course, the report in may will offer a better overview of the year. QoQ is a leading indicator whereas YoY is a lagging indicator. See them as a first and second derivative.

Beo,

MDU impact on german revenue occurred in start of july last year. This is the reason year over year performance comparison doesn't make any statistical sense. Even at the next reporting german numbers will show poor performance relative to prior year. Only by this time next year will the comparative performance have normalised when they report on q3 numbers for germany.

For you, I just compiled QoQ comparison for this time last year. The data is supportive of MD - She has turned the ship around!

https://rapidshare.io/Ad5/IMG_1927.jpeg

IMO $uckers are being shaken out for a last time. All metrics are moving steadfastly in the right direction.

For a better view of actual progress: https://rapidshare.io/1qeG/IMG_1926.jpeg

Compare Germany's performance from last quarter to the year over year performance. The latter was the focus of all major headlines decrying the horrible German performance, which is evidently not supported by the actual in-year business development.

Vod needs to work on their market reporting skills. Markets are driven by headline scraping algos for short term gains.

Yes and no - AI accelerates the processes where manual workflows can be automated at greater speed, but it wont replace the know-how and the organisation required to transform a thesis into a product on the shelf. With that logic the likes of Microsoft, google and amazon would be penny stocks today, instead they are keen to see these AI models (by making direct investments) to prosper as it will help them to shave off opex.

The challenge in the market right now is that those with no background in computer science and science in general suddenly think they know it all.

Gartner to update their magic quadrant for 2025 shortly. Here is the report from last year: https://www.vodafone.com/business/news-and-insights/analyst-views/a-decade-of-success-vodafone-again-named-a-leader-in-the-2024-gartner-magic-quadrant-for-managed-iot-connectivity-services-worldwide

As for TAM by 2032:

1. Fortune Business Insights:

• Reported that the IoT market is projected to grow from USD 714.48 billion in 2024 to USD 4,062.34 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 24.3%.

• Source: https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/internet-of-things-iot-market-100307

2. Allied Market Research:

• Estimated the IoT market will grow from USD 956 billion in 2023 to USD 5,332.3 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 21.3%.

• Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iot-market-to-reach-5-332-3-billion-globally-by-2032-at-21-3-cagr-allied-market-research-302239131.html

3. Zion Market Research:

• Forecasted the IoT market size to grow from USD 373.38 billion in 2023 to USD 1,855.51 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 19.5%.

• Source: https://www.zionmarketresearch.com/report/internet-of-things-industry

Https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/vods-solution-streamline-global-iot-connectivity-stock-gain#:~:text=Vodafone%2C%20Inc.,connect%20with%20any%20network%20worldwide.

What she says at the end is spot on:

https://youtu.be/AY4JcufDawM?feature=shared

"Current gen Starlink sats have bandwidth of 96gbps. LArger Gen 3 which Starship can launch have 1000gbps.

VOD should be getting defensive. Disruption is coming."

---

Scientology is fascinating.

Looks like it. I was using the currency converter on ios and only now noticed it converted the 5.5% to gbp which gives the result of 4.5😅

Ace,

Not correct - The dividend yield is ca 4.5%!

Indeed, at the current share price, the remaining £2.5bn allocated for share buybacks would reduce the float by approximately 15%. It’s only a matter of time before the market responds accordingly. As the total number of outstanding shares decreases, dividend payouts per share should progressively increase, enhancing shareholder returns. Given the improving return on capital (ROC) yields, the Board of Directors (BOD) should continue pursuing buybacks as long as the returns exceed bond yields—an obvious value-creating strategy.

That's strange! I added today and no issues. I don't use HL but sounds like a platform-related glitch in your case.

Fair point, which I have pondered myself. My take on a realistic outcome is simplistic: should JFK impose super-strict vaccination rules, cases of infected people are bound to rocket, at which point demand for a cure will swing to the other extreme. In the short term, speculators appear to be too bearish, hence my thesis that it’s best to keep accumulating. There’s no silver bullet, but when it comes to science, “populists” can’t treat it with wishful thinking.

My gut feeling tells me that the EU and the UK may start pushing for and incentivising pension funds to prioritise European assets to a much higher degree, should Trump implement his tariffs, etc. Off the top of my head, I believe UK pension funds have only a 7% allocation to UK stocks. It begs the question if these funds are aware of their counter productive strategy?! US markets are going exponential thanks to the rest of the world transferring their wealth to the Americans instead of investing in their own regions. Yet Trump is keen to impose tariffs, as if the US isn’t already benefiting from the USD’s status as a reserve currency. This is a long topic, so I’ll leave it there, but something will have to give if they carry on with the trade framework threats.

Sorry typo - was referring to the DCF method

Unless you’re aiming for a significant short-term gain, the current market situation offers the best opportunity. You can keep accumulating shares while the market remains unaware of the company’s true potential. After analysing all product categories, the DFC stands out as a compelling buy at these levels. Here’s why:

- Dividend Growth: As FCF increases, dividends will rise accordingly, given the company’s strategy to pay out 60% of FCF.

- Share Price Potential: The share price is likely to increase as the dividend yield becomes more attractive.

- Market Revaluation: Eventually, the market will recognise the value and adjust the price-to-peers delta accordingly.

Mole, what is your take on the flat earth theory?