Member Info for meshtrader

What a fantastic opportunity to accumulate this stock. It’s a cash-generating machine, trading at a significant discount compared to other global pharmas. No guarantees, and always do your own research, but this feels like a gift.

Narcus, thanks for your kind words.

No need to project your investment missteps onto avatars like me—it won’t magically upgrade your decision-making skills. If the store owners have legitimate claims, they’ll be compensated. That’s how the justice system works—pretty straightforward, right?

Maybe channel that energy into improving your own ROI instead of obsessing over others’ outcomes… unless, of course, you happen to be one of those store owners. That would explain the passion.

Also, tossing around phrases like “unsubstantiated comments” usually hints at someone nursing a financial wound. Next time, consider consulting professionals before parting with your hard-earned cash. Just a thought.

Most likely an opportunistic move by incapable store managers. In an environment where external factors have played havoc on telcos, they expected to be shielded from all such impacts, if changes were made as a result of effects from the pandemic and inflationary pressures etc. I have no insights into any of this, but it comes across as a sort of last life-line kind of move by these owners to recover lost business.

Oh, silly me! I was under the impression the agenda was about less regulation and fostering competition. Must’ve missed the real memo. Turns out it’s “deregulate where there’s competition, regulate where we can corner the market.” Got it now. I’ll be sure to read the fine print more carefully next time.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/dec/10/tesla-uk-to-carbon-emissions-cars-lorries-elon-musk-semi-truck

Citi seems to have navigated today’s news flawlessly, with no gaps appearing either in the U.S. market or locally. From a technical perspective, this is a bullish signal, and I believe we’ve officially turned the ship around.

BAGHDAD, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Iraq's cabinet on Tuesday approved a decision to give Vodafone Global Telecommunications a licence to operate the country's first 5G network and said the government would start preparatory steps for the project, the Prime Minister's Office said.

However, Vodafone said it was discussing a role advising on the design of the network rather than operating it.

"Vodafone's partner markets division is in talks with the government of Iraq about a possible consultancy contract to advise on the design of a new 5G network planned by the government," a spokesperson said in a statement

"Discussions are still ongoing, and we do not yet have an agreed contract."

(Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad and Paul Sandle in London; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

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This situation is indeed interesting and appears to be laying the groundwork for a potential subsidiary or expanded presence in Iraq for Vodafone in the medium to long term.

Iraq, with a population of around 46 million, is currently dominated by three leading mobile operators:

1. Zain Iraq: A subsidiary of Kuwait’s Zain Group, Zain Iraq offers extensive mobile voice and data services, including 3G and 4G, and holds a substantial market share.

2. Asiacell: Owned by Qatar-based Ooredoo, Asiacell is another major player providing 3G and 4G services across the country.

3. Korek Telecom: A privately owned operator, Korek also competes by offering 3G and 4G services, going head-to-head with Zain and Asiacell.

Given Vodafone’s prior collaborations with Asiacell, this connection is certainly advantageous. However, there’s no denying that Qatar’s significant stake in Vodafone (via the Qatar Investment Authority) adds another layer of strategic importance. This relationship likely facilitates Vodafone’s advisory role in Iraq’s 5G rollout and could lead to a more formal partnership in the future, especially as regional telecom influence becomes more critical.

The responsibility lies with UK pension funds, not external forces. The government must impose stricter caps on how much capital these funds can allocate to foreign assets. Currently, employee pension funds are inadvertently undermining domestic job security by channeling significant investments into competing markets, thereby strengthening competitors and contributing to job losses in the UK.

Once the news is out, there will be a significant move in the stock price. To expect anything else is incomprehensible. The downside is limited due to buybacks and the improving fortunes of the company. The estimates suggest that Vodafone Group will gain an additional £750 million to £1.5 billion in free cash flow once all synergies have fully materialized. This figure only takes into account Vodafone’s share of the synergies. As a result, the potential upside in terms of the stock price movement is likely to be between £3.75 billion and £7.5 billion over time. I expect at least 30% of the total synergy impact to be reflected in the stock price in the immediate future following a positive outcome.

Don’t overlook the government’s recent announcement requiring pension funds to allocate the majority of their investments within the UK. This policy shift is expected to have a substantial impact on the FTSE and UK assets overall.

"Honestly asking questions like where do you put the money? Do you people know that there is a stock market on the other side of the pond that is largely flying? Do you suffer from Stockholm syndrome or are you masochists still talking about dead beat Vodafone?"

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Nvidia struggled to gain any meaningful traction for over 20 years. However, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results; it serves as just one of many input variables to consider.

Here’s hoping the Gods have a moment of mercy and the uninformed decide to sell off their shares tomorrow, driving the stock price below 67. Planning to bump up my position by around 5%—fingers crossed for a little chaos🤞🏼

"Will we see RR recover after this reset. Have we seen the bottom of this reset as we appear to be around the 525 share value."

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Oh, it’s only trading at 20x the projected full-year FCF and about 3x its projected 2024 revenue. Totally sustainable, right? Obviously, this stock is primed for a massive recovery from such mind-boggling multiples. But, hey, if Tesla and those other American darlings can defy the laws of physics with their valuations, why not throw logic out the window for RR too?

Mole, let me break it down for you. Why not delegate and have your wife sell those Vodafone shares, since pressing “sell” seems to be a bit much? And while you’re at it, get in on the Starlink IPO before it skyrockets past Mars, dragging along its entourage of satellites.

Building on your comment, Beo, the achieved ROCE thus far has been over 7%, which makes buybacks a compelling choice compared to the cost of debt. Given that Vodafone’s average coupon rate is around 4% (an off-the-cuff estimate), buybacks are not only a cost-effective use of capital but also a strategic one, especially with the current share price. This approach maximizes capital returns to investors, with the additional advantage of reducing the absolute dividend payout proportionally as shares are "retired".

Fleccy, it would be helpful to get Beo’s input on this. On dividend coverage, earnings per share didn’t fully cover the payout, but keep in mind the dividend deducted was based on last year’s 9p per share payout. Moving forward, the coverage ratio, based on the recently reported earnings per share, is at 1.8.

The November dividend will be deducted from Q3 earnings. Additionally, management has been clear about their gearing strategy, targeting 2.2-2.7x EBITDA, and reiterated this morning that they plan to stay at the lower end of this range to optimize ROCE.

As for FCF, as you mentioned, the actual figures are best assessed at year-end, as investments in plants and equipment are not a linear exercise.

"So what is the net loss this quarter?"

What are you on about? The company had an ebit of 2.4bn and 0.7m net cash increase.

"Based on the H1 FY25 results announced by Vodafone, the company generally met market expectations, though there were nuances in specific areas:

1. **Revenue Growth**:

- **Total Revenue**: Vodafone reported a total revenue increase of 1.6% to €18.3 billion, which aligned closely with analyst expectations of moderate growth.

- **Service Revenue**: The service revenue growth of 1.7% on a reported basis and 4.8% on an organic basis met the anticipated growth, particularly considering the challenges in Germany.

2. **Adjusted EBITDAaL**:

- Vodafone's Adjusted EBITDAaL of €5.4 billion, an increase of 3.8%, was within the range of market expectations. Analysts had forecasted figures around €5.3 billion to €5.5 billion, so this was seen as a positive outcome.

3. **Performance in Germany**:

- The anticipated decline in service revenue in Germany (reported at a 6.2% drop in Q2) was in line with market expectations, which had predicted a decline of around 5% to 7%. This confirmed the market's concerns about the regulatory impact.

4. **Dividend Declaration**:

- The interim dividend of 2.25 eurocents per share was lower than the previous year, which was anticipated by the market. This reflects Vodafone's commitment to a sustainable payout following its strategic disposals.

5. **Strategic Progress and Outlook**:

- Vodafone reiterated its full-year guidance, which provided reassurance to investors. The focus on operational improvements and strategic investments was viewed positively, despite the challenges in specific markets.

### Conclusion

Overall, Vodafone's H1 FY25 results were largely in line with market expectations, with solid performances in revenue and EBITDA amidst challenges in Germany. While some areas could be viewed as underwhelming, particularly the ongoing decline in German service revenue, the overall results were considered satisfactory and indicated a path forward for recovery and growth."

I hope the treasury takes advantage of these absurdly low stock prices by repurchasing shares through the buyback program. Both the CEO and CFO provided clear insights into the business during the analyst call. Despite the noise, it seems Germany is positioned for a turnaround in Q4, driven not only by the 1&1 operational deal but also by the expansion of high-speed offerings to over 75% of households.

It’s disappointing that analysts missed the opportunity to ask key questions about the future, such as the role of IoT, the planned listing, mobile payment platforms, and how generative AI could drive growth in their SaaS customer base. Instead, the focus remained on the easy target: Germany.

In a bifurcated market where the sheep chase a worthless token like BTC, keep loading proper assets. It ain't over until the fat lady sings. Trust me, she will be singing louder than ever once Trump rolls out his "master" plan.

Garonne ,

You are statements are full of contradictions. That's all I can say.

Best of luck.

"Unfortunately as Germany is VOD's biggest market the shareprice has taken a hit. Back to the inevitable 60s! It's definitely time for Margherita to go. She's hopeless and has completely failed shareholders."

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You keep reiterating the same points, as though they validate your argument. How can Vodafone single-handedly counteract Germany’s macroeconomic challenges? Furthermore, if, as you suggest, Vodafone’s service were truly subpar, we would see similar underperformance in other markets, especially the UK, which we haven’t. So, what do you believe a new CEO could realistically do to solve Germany’s broader economic issues?

Based on today’s results and an extrapolated net profit of approximately €4.8 billion over the next 12 months, this stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 4-5x. Valuations in Europe are incredibly low compared to the U.S. markets. When the market disparity corrects, the rebound could be substantial.

Looking to add to my position. The market seems to bundle all telcos into one and the same basket. I guess it's a gift as we can load up cheaply.