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Nofear
Good article though its insights are for vod ireland only.
If this https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/telcos-media-tech/ck-hutchison-eyes-deals-fast-moving-italian-mobile-market is true, then vod should opt for a merger rather than sale. Total number of players to go from 5 to 3, leading to less cannibalisation.
The issue and concern is if the regulators will approve if 3 is also keen to do what vod is aiming for.
You may need to have a subscription to read this https://www.ft.com/content/b6a53278-60e4-4d93-b691-f575f54b27f0
Based on the recent moves by sovereign wealth funds keen interest in telcos and the blocking by orange, DT and now Telefonica, it seems plausible the beneficiary of external cash pile into the sector on the European side is Vod.
That coupled with the PE FOMO into the same sector bodes well and could signal the multi-year reversal trend.
How times have changed!! https://www.commsupdate.com/articles/2006/12/19/vodafone-sells-swisscom-mobile-stake/ The prey that became the predator. Same cycle will get repeated over and over again in the coming decades.
Another bid ;-) and coupled with https://www.ft.com/content/4d73cb8e-78ee-42d8-9121-7c47da177782, it seems as if telcos are now earmarked as undervalued assets by PEs. Let's see for how much longer the sp lingers under 100.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/swisscom-is-weighing-bid-for-vodafone-italy-early-next-year-1.2014206
I see a nice h&s forming, indicating we are about to get to 71 in short order
Ah, maybe most likely caused due to bonds being denominated in euros have the last maturity date in 2056 and the ones denominated in $ have their first due date in jan 2024, but somehow it still says 2025😀
Best then to combine the two data sets (€ & $) into one series and sort per maturity and add another dimension(yield). If you have time that is😊.
Good chart fleccy, but noticed some of the assigned dates are wrong around the middle of the graph. It says 2024 although it should read year 2056+ as this is an ascending time series.
Fleccy,
The biggest mistake Vod did was the acquisition of Mannesman at the peak of .com boom. The best deal they made was actually the sale of verizon at a price of $130bn? Today Verizon is trading at less than $160bn!
What the greedy and destructive Colao should have done was to pay off all debt first before handing out money to shareholders. Read, a disciple of Colao followed in his footsteps and now MDV is reversing their mistakes. She has for sure experience from both of these chaps and if she is savvy, she knows where the mistakes were made. This is why an outsider will have a much tougher job to appreciate the moving parts and the context.
Now, currently the Italian business has better margin than the uk unit, so I would prefer a tie-up like that with liberty global in Nl than a complete sale given the sheer size of the italian business and the future italian potential. Bear in mind Italy never managed to recover from the -08 crisis, but they will turn the bend soon enough. Its a powerhouse when it comes industrial production and a fantastic asset with a huge population. I would have not sold it off.
With the tie-up, net debt will be reduced, similar to the proposed 3 plans. The core pillars of vod in mainland europe are, germany, italy and nl. Orange dominates the eastern european side and france with DT maintaining the Dach region with some other adjacent regions.
Vod can't therefore afford to lose its strategic positioning. The world of deal making is a dirty one and agents will do all they can to force the hands of the weak ones. You think vod would get as a offer for its assets if sp is as suppressed levels or at 160+? So, yes, they will use all tools in their toolkit to achieve their goals. This is why slid shareholders are pivotal in maintaining an astute vision and leadership to fend off hyenas.
interesting times ahead.
"Jax we're still awaiting your assessment of Vodafone's Financials, suggesting they'll go bust?
You seem to go quiet when asked to back up your assertions with facts."
--
like a snowflake, as soon as the heat is turned up, they melt away😂
Also waiting for the same gang to reveal vod's publicly traded assets. First they probably need to take a simple calculus class as it may involve some arithmetic.
Apologies, meant to say how much of that market cap could be attained (in absolute €) by vod if they were to sell their complete stake.
PS @LSE, please introduce an edit feature. So annoying.
To sceptics,
Which Vod owned subsidiaries are listed and what is their current market cap based on Friday closing price(s).
How much of that is the value could attain if sold?
"What’s your counter then Mesh
The market is talking"
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You are right, the "market" is talking and I am grateful for it, otherwise I would have had to pay 160+ for each share.
The market can stay insane a lot longer than one can imagine, but in the meantime, I will grab the div and top up.
"Do not forget we’re in a general market bull trend at the moment if that turns Vod is bust bankrupt insolvent doomed
Insolvency companies will be licking their lips"
--
You are funny and take it as a pun.
Evidently with no knowledge of either other than their respective public communication.
One thing that sticks out, Tufan never mentions customers and only keen to slash costs, while MDV is low key and emphasises customer first strategy while improving operational efficiency.
Time will tell which one of these two will outlast the other.
Jax
Mind the gap. Until significant news, algos will seek out any gaps on the downside. Just look at the volume pushing it down to sub 66, compared to that which pushed it to 67+ yesterday.
What the Vod would benefit from is to delist its NY shares to remove the gap hunting algos.
Lol, how is that any different to the current set-up? 3 not being owned by Hong Kong Chinese?😂
"Oh, and meshtrader, since you are a diehard supporter of VOD, and I am a non-believer. So, you tend to see things differently from me. hahahahaha"
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How do you see today's volume compared to that of yesterday? How can such quantifiable number be subjective?
"It's an opportunity for someone to get out alive or making a little profit. Provided that they get out before the downward trend resumes."
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Utter nonsense. Have you checked today's volume? What was the total volume yesterday?
Sorry, but you have no clue about TA.
"Nick Read all is forgiven. MDV should never have been appointed. Failed as CFO.
Should have been an outsider like Seivert."
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Scientific studies don't support your assertion. It's the opposite. The most successful CEOs are recruited internally.
Jim Collins and his research team conducted an extensive project (5+ years) on the topic. Look it up.
RR has tons of huge gaps leading to the current SP. Vod the opposite.
Gaps almost always get filled.