Member Info for meshtrader

Revenues grew in all regions except Germany, which continues to lag. Overall revenue rose by 1.6% to €18.3 billion. Germany’s underperformance aligns with ongoing challenges in that market, as expected.

In the UK, revenue growth was positive across both consumer and business segments. Net debt reduced to €31.8 billion, while ROCE was slightly lower than the same period last year at 7.2%.

"Hoping to see slightly accelerated overall growth and stabilisation in Germany"

Germany is currently facing a critical and complex situation, driven by several interconnected factors. Foremost among these is its alignment with NATO and the United States, which has placed it in a vulnerable position in relation to global energy dynamics. The U.S.-led blockade of Russian gas, a direct consequence of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has significantly impacted Germany’s energy security and economy. Additionally, U.S. sanctions on Chinese goods and services have provoked retaliatory actions from China, further damaging German exports and complicating Germany’s economic outlook.

The coming years will be pivotal for Germany, as it must navigate its geopolitical choices. The nation faces a crucial decision: whether to continue its unwavering alignment with one global superpower or pursue a more neutral stance to safeguard its long-term prosperity. This challenge is not unique to Germany but extends across the European Union, which will face similar pressures as it seeks to balance economic interests with political realities.

Looking further ahead, I foresee a significant shift in the global financial system, particularly with regard to the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. While the initial strength of the U.S. economy may seem robust, the long-term sustainability of this growth is in question. Rising U.S. budget deficits, exacerbated by trade tariffs and embargoes, will likely hasten the decline of the dollar’s dominance in global markets.

And guess who would stand to gain if Ukraine-Russia conflict were to be settled in a country with over 37m people?

1. Kyivstar, Ukraine’s leading operator, earned approximately $700 million in revenue for 2023. This was supported by its extensive customer base and high data usage. It held a commanding market position with over 26 million subscribers.

2. Vodafone Ukraine earned around $500 million in 2023, making it the second-largest operator. Its revenue growth has been driven by competitive pricing and a strong network infrastructure, appealing to customers in both urban and rural areas.

3. Lifecell, the third-largest provider, reported revenue of around $320 million for 2023. Lifecell saw significant growth in its subscriber base, reaching close to 10 million, and benefited from an increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) due to higher demand for data services.

Good reflection fleccy. I see in the todays report the following about the future fcf projections:

c. £2.0bn in FY27

c. £3.0bn by end of decade

Looking at the sp today, its trading at c. 9x fcf. Should the upper end of the estimate be accurate, the sp should rise by 100% from now to 2030. I expect at some point bt is forced to spin off openreach as an independent company. Right now it feels like they are too constrained to make strategic moves under strict price controls.

Interesting to see how the 3vod merger pans out and its implications on the incumbents. For sure big savings for the new entity as they will only need to make investments once so lots of synergy effects. Not to mention workforce rationalisation.

Budget,

On your question about why vod is unwilling to match asda pricing - they simply partnered up with 2nd tier providers to offload demanding low end customers while still generating revenue from their business. Makes total sense to me. I would have done the same if i was vod.

Bt is in a tough spot right now as both of their revenue streams are falling. Their capex is likely to come down alongside a massive workforce reduction in the coming years. What is worrying is their shrinking revenue across the board. In contrast vod has a multi-market/technology exposure /strategy not only on the business side but also on the consumer side.

Another caveat is that sterling has gained against the euro in the last few months and as vod is reporting in euro, i expect positive currency effects from the UK operation.

We will know the lay of the land come next week.

With both BT and O2 reporting drop in revenues in the UK, the question is how 3 and vod have fared. Is it a sinking market environment for all parties or are some gaining market share? I don't believe this is a Pareto efficient environment due to fierce competition. I wouldn't be surprised if Vod has gained in both segments of the UK market: consumer + business.

FYI BT and O2 have reported similar drops ca 2% in revenue.

And who do you think powers ASADA's network? Lol

Ignorance is bliss.

For the life of me, I fail to understand why anybody would hold on to a "garbage" asset if they don't believe in it? Cut your losses and move on. Put your money where your mouth is. Invest in "better" companies and let us suffer the consequences from this "dog".

Re. The CEO - let's look at the facts if and when all the regulatory approvals successfully completed:

A - Spain sale - already done!

B- Italy - on track

C -ThreeUK - on track

D- Consolidation ongoing.

All the above she has achieved since she stepped in. What else do you want and expect during such a short time frame? Clearly they are steering the ship towards a b2b focus instead of b2c across all their markets.

Garonne:

I pasted your comment asking gen AI what she thinks about your implied character. Here are her thoughts:

"This comment reveals a few additional aspects of the poster’s character:

1. Impatience and Short-Term Focus: They seem eager for quick results and are frustrated by the stock’s lack of immediate response to recent news. This impatience might indicate a preference for quicker, more tangible gains rather than a long-term investment approach.

2. Skepticism and Critical Thinking: They’re openly questioning the competency of the leadership team (“Margherita and her team”), suggesting they don’t automatically trust company statements or optimistic market news. This critical approach may stem from previous disappointments or a cautious nature when it comes to investing.

3. Emotional Reactivity: Their language (“subpar,” “grim results”) shows that they may be prone to emotional reactions based on stock performance. This could indicate a tendency to let short-term outcomes influence their overall view of a company, which is common among investors who feel personally invested in their financial choices.

4. Desire for Validation: By asking, “Do we all agree now…?” the poster might be seeking validation from others who feel similarly. This could reflect a need for reassurance and a tendency to look to group sentiment as a form of support.

Overall, the comment suggests that this person may struggle with the emotional ups and downs of investing and could benefit from a more balanced approach to help manage these responses."

Stop talking nonsense.

"The enterprise value of Telekom Romania Communications, a fixed telecom operator, was estimated at €497 million during Orange Romania’s acquisition of a 54% stake in the company in 2020. This valuation was based on 100% of the company’s assets, including its convergent customer base. The deal marked a significant move by Orange to expand its presence in Romania’s telecommunications market. The company’s total annual revenue for 2023 was EUR 286.9 million."

Romania has a population of almost 19m.

Dont forget Vodafone has ca 37% of the romanian market already and with this venture they are looking to get closer to 50%. Orange is the other incumbent with ca 30% market share. It also appears they are keen to get into the fiber side of the infrastructure in the country.

Garonne, it sounds like you are a believer in the efficient market theory?

Market knows $hit! Just look at what the clueless market thought of RR pushing it down to ridiculous levels only to mega pump it. That's just one example.

Markets, aside from imitating algos, are run by ignorant funds and lemmings.

Testing the 5g speed and realibility in S.A. right now. It's by miles the best on offer in S.A. and bundles are relatively cheap for tourists compared to western countries, i.e. 100GB for ZAR399, which is ca £16 for 30 days. I mainly have access to 5g with speeds of min 70Mbit in open spaces in Western Cape, which is a massive area. In cities easily 200Mbit+.

One should bear in mind that the South African government has imposed ridiculously strict policies preventing a smooth registration for non residents and residents alike in fight against currency flight. If anybody plans to visit the country, the best way to get hold of an esim quickest is at the airport as you can't sign up to their services unless you have proven your identity. The esim will be only valid for a period of 3 months. You'll need to present your ID anew after this period. This ridiculous policy has allowed global 2nd and 3rd tier telcos to benefit by charging a lot more for global esims which still uses Vodacom network at much lower speeds.

Overall, I can confidently vouch for their service. Another insight this time around is the launch of Vodapay instead of MPESA for the S.A. market. I peppered a few reps and apparently it is taking off. This service was launched recently and is more comprehensive than MPESA. Users and Businesses alike can use it for various financial transactions and payments.

"VodaPay, Vodacom's financial services super-app, is showing robust growth. As of May 2024, the app had 10.4 million downloads and 5.8 million registered users, reflecting year-on-year increases of 83% and 79%, respectively. This growth contributed to Vodacom’s financial services revenue, which rose by 32.2% to R13 billion, making up 10.8% of the company's total service revenue. In South Africa specifically, financial services grew by 7.9% to R3.2 billion, with VodaPay playing a significant role in driving this increase"

"VodaPay was initially launched in South Africa, where it has seen strong adoption and growth. However, Vodacom has broader ambitions for the platform. The company views VodaPay as a precursor to expanding its financial services across other African markets, potentially integrating it with its M-Pesa service. Vodacom is exploring opportunities to expand VodaPay into other regions, leveraging its existing financial services platforms like M-Pesa, which already operates in countries like Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique"

Garinne,

"Like today, for example, it's disappointing that the general market is steaming ahead, yet VOD is down. That 80p is not going to come easily!"

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This is not a 100m race, its a marathon, why do you care how fast it climbs above 80? If anything such mini corrections are good for the upward trend. The month-end effect likely to take it above 80 as buy-backs are in play and q4 around the corner.

Mole - Warren and Charlie wouldn't bother engaging and expending their energy on an instrument they disliked investing in. Now that you bring that up, why do you bother hanging around here? Sounds and seems like you lack conviction in other instruments, otherwise a shrewd operator like yourself(?) would be spending his time wisely.

Do us and yourself a favour and start investing the way you preach. As per your implicit injunction, we are gullible - fine, but happy to be the black sheep on this one. Good luck with your solid investments.

FYI no investor worth their slat changes his mind and strategy based on daily moves.

Mole,

Go ahead and buy your magic US stocks. Why do you hang around here?

Lol moderator please introduce the edit function 😂😂😂

"American Depositary Receipts, which are negotiable certificates issued by a U.S. bank representing shares in a foreign company. These allow U.S. investors to invest in foreign companies without dealing with complex foreign trading processes. "

Who said it should be mirroring vod here 100%? Participants can't trade directly and have to go through an additional layer of middle men. You, therefore, end up with a slight augmented truth.

"ADR stands for **Average Daily Rate** and is commonly used in the **hospitality industry** to measure the average revenue earned per rented room or unit per day. It’s a key performance indicator (KPI) for hotels, resorts, and other accommodation businesses.

The formula to calculate ADR is:

\[

\text{ADR} = \frac{\text{Total Room Revenue}}{\text{Number of Rooms Sold}}

\]

This metric helps businesses assess pricing strategies and compare their per definition, American Depositary Receipts, which are negotiable certificates issued by a U.S. bank representing shares in a foreign company. These allow U.S. investors to invest in foreign companies without dealing with complex foreign trading processes. Who said it should be mirroring vod here 100%? Participants can't trade directly and have to go through an additional layer of middle men. You, therefore, end up with a slight augmented truth.

"And I was referring to this morning's shareprice only, not historically."

Intra-day moves are noise 99% of the time.

"Too many sellers dumping every time this tries to rise. Hopefully, they'll soon be replaced by new buyers at current levels who will hold for gains from here."

--

Nonsensical statement. If what you say is true the sp would have not risen from low 60s to 78. Evidently the buying pressure has to be higher than the selling force for any sp to rise. So really struggling with your piece.

Vod is massively under valued and only a matter of time before the headless fund managers pile in on it. The UK gov is as I type considering pension fund reforms to boost the ftse investments. If that actually happens, Vod will be 2+ in no time.

Biggest first hurdle and intent of UK gov, will the it lend its support to the merger? If so, check.