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"Markets won’t be making any moves today until job numbers are revealed. A lot of mixed messages as to what the numbers will do atm."
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You are correct and it's all a scam (sadly).
These days, markets are HFT-driven and events such as employment, inflation etc are hard coded to maximise transactional profits as a result of induced Pavlovian behaviour. This is one part.
Another part, whatever happens with these numbers whether it's PMI, Employment, the FED and the rest of the central bankers are cornered. There is absolutely nothing they can do to escape the mess they have created. If rates are increased, they will create a crash. And even if they could reduce asset purchases, which they can't, because US government wouldn't be able to fund its budget otherwise, the market collapses leading to more joblessness.
So the bankers, big trading houses, governments, through their clown proxies like CNBC , Bloomberg & Yahoo Finance are all trying to create a narrative that fits their agenda and to keep milking the cow for as long as they can.
Hyper inflation and a loss of trust in monopoly currencies is inevitable in my opinion. In essence we are in an unstable state and the bankers and governments are trying to play God with endless money printing.
We have never witnessed a global money printing at such scales, but historically, currencies' shelf life is around 50 years. And guess what? 15th August is the USD's 50th anniversary since it came off the Gold standard. Look at the historical US m1 money supply and what happened to it as soon as Nixon was pushed by bankers to decouple the USD from Gold - the rate of change went exponential! https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1#:~:text=Money%20Supply%20M1%20in%20the%20United%20States%20averaged%201360.36%20USD,Billion%20in%20January%20of%201959.
And here is the historical purchasing power of the USD. Pay attention to the tail-end, meaning 1971 onwards; https://www.statista.com/statistics/1032048/value-us-dollar-since-1640/
Stay safe!
"Vodafone are buying up there shares because they fear a bid stateside but good luck to getting rich on your Vodafone stake they will be 81p on New Year’s Day"
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Let's assume you are correct in your prediction - Will you be buying at 81p?
As I am always eager to learn, could you please explain your calculation as to what 81p represents that the current price doesn't?
Thank you, Mesh
haha, just hit the wires that the HOOD insiders have filed to sell 100m shares to the sheep. You couldn't make this nonsense up - really! Only in the country of the wild wild west is a company allowed to literally front run both its customers and shareholders lol
The SEC should really bring these cowboys down, but then again, these bureaucrats whose role it is to ensure the rules are followed and investors protected have a vested interest. Many of these people end up working for hedge funds and banks, therefore, they will never bring down the hand that keeps feeding them. Sadly, the system is corrupt beyond repair.
https://www.ft.com/content/93ed950e-4420-420f-9ad5-0a932230468b
A week or so old article, but it sheds light on the hidden gem - M-Pesa and what the market is currently underpricing.
Just keep accumulating and embrace these low levels.
PS all based on my own opinion so DYOR.
lol it came out as H&M instead of H&S hehe. Apologies.
Nice little H&M developing on this time frame and I am not referring to dandruff :) Target if it plays out is ca 292, which is right at the gap at the close before the results were published.
Sounds like the entire article was funded by the collective competition to the oil majors.
Completely lacks any evidence other than that the dividend is half of what it used to be and somehow ties this variable with his doubts over oil majors ability to pivot and shift, while painting a glorious picture of their greener competition.
I would not be surprised if this author is a major contributor to pump and dump legion of Reddit sheeple crowd. Utter rubbish and pointless article for the sake of whatever money the author and the Telegraph have received to cook up this story.
Robinhood shares
HOOD's market cap is now almost as big as that of BP. The mind boggles.
Offloaded 1/4 of my swing holding at the gap fill. 100% of long term in tact.
Increasing Swing holding in Vod by an equal amount.
"Role of chance versus skill
Chance or randomness is one of the features of gambling that has been historical used to distinguish it from investing and/or speculation (e.g., O’Malley, 2003; Reith, 2002). However, as mentioned earlier, while randomness is a central feature of many gambling games (e.g., lotteries, scratch tickets, electronic gambling machines, bingo, and most casino table games), skill does have a significant influence on the outcome of some gambling activities (i.e., horse race betting, sports betting, and all person-to-person games such as poker, golf, etc.).
What many people fail to realize is the central role that chance also has in the financial markets. Most economists agree that the major financial markets are fairly “efficient,” meaning the current bid/ask price of a stock or commodity is a fairly accurate valuation, as it is an aggregate real-world reflection of what investors know about the stock/commodity in terms of company management, cash and capital assets, and future prospects (Chan, Gup, & Pan, 2003; Malkiel, 2003; Verheyden, De Moor, & Van den Bossche, 2015). Two important corollaries of efficient markets are that (a) day-to-day directional changes in stock valuation are largely independent of the previous valuation (i.e., random) (Fama, 1995; Malkiel, 2003), and (b) the only way of obtaining higher than average returns on the general market is if the person has information that the general public is unaware of (“insider information”), and/or he/she has superior analytical powers in judging the relative importance of the publicly available information.
The evidence indicates that despite the heavy reliance on research and information to select investments, only a small percentage of professional analysts and traders are able to consistently outperform the average return of the market (Andersson, 2004; Bhootraa, Dreznerb, Schwarzc, & Stohsd, 2015; Cuthbertson, Nitzsche, & O’Sullivan, 2010; Dickens & Shelor, 2003; Fama & French, 2010; Porter, 2004). [Nonprofessional investors generally underperform the market due to higher rates of trading (thereby incurring higher transaction costs) and choosing higher-risk financial products (Barber & Odean, 2000; Barber, Lee, Liu, & Odean, 2009; Grinblatt & Keloharju, 2000; Kumar, 2009; Schlarbaum, Lewellen, & Lease, 1978a, 1978b).] The recognition that most investment managers do not perform above chance accuracy has led to the popularity of “index funds” that simply attempt to track the performance of the general market (and that have very low management fees)."
There is no doubt, scientifically speaking, that day trading is gambling no matter how one spins it.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5370364/
"etc........ heading back to £3.20 ish IMHO in next few days!!"
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gap a shade below 305 is the first target ;-)
I hear many complaining why the European oil majors are trading at such a discount compared to their US peers.
Here is an example illustrating one of the factors behind this bifurcated sentiment - The somewhat flawed ownership structure of (BP and shell in this case). It appears the Europeans simply don't have the b$$ls to be considered as serious investors, hence why they can't defend their chips.
This skewed ownership extends to other sectors also, i.e. banks, telco etc.
BP
8.70% % of Shares Held by Institutions
8.70% % of Float Held by Institutions
1,035 Number of Institutions Holding Shares
Shell
8.15% % of Shares Held by Institutions
8.15% % of Float Held by Institutions
612 Number of Institutions Holding Shares
Exxon
53.30% % of Shares Held by Institutions
53.36% % of Float Held by Institutions
3,215 Number of Institutions Holding Shares
Chevron
68.19% % of Shares Held by Institutions
68.21% % of Float Held by Institutions
3,114 Number of Institutions Holding Shares
Anyway, above all IMO and DYOR.
With such low trading volumes, the big moves won't be coming until all big institutional investors are back from summer holidays.
In the meantime, those who are short best to cover as fast as they can. The next leg up will be ripping their faces off lol
As a side note, the scam broker, Robinhood will be trading today through an IPO valuing it at a whopping $30billion. No profits in sight, and tons of law suits pending.
Yup, the mind boggles and this sort of thing seem to be a regular occurrence over there, in the land of the free, or shall I say, the wild wild west:)
"They have already said that the divi is fixed for 5 years.I can only go with what has already been made public."
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I concur, but given how fickle the investing community is and their sensitivity towards their annual payout, the yield levels will be reviewed every year. And they should in any dynamically run business. Just a good business practice.
"If they cancel £2billion worth the shares then they are not paying it in divi"
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In the same year, of course not, but in the subsequent financial year, they will have to consider the benchmark div yield curve.
"If BP buy back £2b shares then they save £100 m on divis."
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Sorry, but no!
It simply means the same total amount of Div in $ will be higher for each remaining holder. Share buybacks, serve to increase the share price as the total number of outstanding shares decreases.
As for investing in other commodity firms, strategically speaking, this isn't an effective tactic. If commodity players have investments, or stakes in each other's businesses, then you won't have enough autonomy to pivot at critical juncture. Better to develop a much stronger relationship with your core shareholders so they stand by you during good as well as bad times.
On this point, I tend to agree with mr Buffett, if a company's leadership believe they can beat the market returns, they should keep investing in their own business instead of distributing the cash. If not, hand it over to me and I will make my own investment decisions.