Member Info for meshtrader

Nvidia Year over year growth was a negative 13%! Manipulation by CEO of trigger happy algos at best by uttering words the markets wants to hear.

If anything I would short the heck out of this stock. Almost a 99% chance of losing your money if you go long at these levels.

Interesting when you start looking at the actual numbers which are rarely mentioned. Have a look at net cash and equivalents at the end of period. Going back 4 years, they have never generated more than, on average, ca 2bn each year.

The sp is trading at a whopping 20+x total assets!!! Lol

Such a gigantic disconnect from reality and now the meme in the market is generative A.I. The American greed never disappoints.

Just had a look and it seems these are the ones they are looking to retire:

XS1888179477 --79--3.1%--2bn

XS1888180640 -- 78--6.25%--1.3bn

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This should have a net positive annual cashflow impact of at least 140m/year.

Not exactly the most expensive coupons, but I suspect they have properly assessed and ranked as per risk/reward to retire. I don't have access to Bloomberg terminal, but I suspect 92857TAH0 at 7.88% ($750m) is trading at a significant premium, hence not prudent to retire. I bet the likes of this will be retired as soon as there are jitters in the corporate bond markets.

Scaredycat

Lol I need to check but I believe these are exactly the ones we proposed last week on this board to buy back with cash😄

You forget an important parameter. Currency pair adjustments. Sterling gets stronger in relative terms to a number of other currencies, reducing the import costs and strengthening the purchasing power.

Brexit really killed the economy and the purchasing power of GBP and that has zero to do with BOE. At least now we are gaining some momentum on the currency side. Best thing a competent government could do is to turn the UK into a super friendly country to setup and conduct business in.

Robleo

Investing isn't an exact science as the path to price discovery is a rocky road riddled with significant noise where meaningful majority shareholders are absent. Even when they are active and committed to the long-term strategy of the company, price discovery and true value is debatable. Just look at the large gulf between the asset valuation multiple in the US vs the rest of the world. American "apples" are valued and appreciated more than non American apples. Its truly contradiction in term as an investor should seek to maximise ROI and to actively seek to profitably close the value gap where one exist.

There are multiple teams who have analysed past stock performances and their findings were that a significant appreciation in a security some years, i.e. if viewed over a 20 year period, is the main contribution to the aggregate performance. In a nutshell, as tempting as it may be to compare prices on a daily, weekly, monthly basis, it's best to have a longer term perspective as there is almost no possibility to time the right infliction points as to when the major moves are about to take place.

Going back to your question about how to achieve a 10% gain - there is no one formula!

Look at things with a longer time horizon. How can you judge which marathon runner will win the race after 10min of running, or even 30min? Especially if they are not ranked off the gate.

Is 3.70% --> implied vod sp to reflect such a yield ~ 2.11 ; [a yield of 5%]-->sp ~ 1.56

I suspect the recent selling may be as a result of the liberty global's derivate vod holding and potential margin call.

Just added another 7.7% to my holding.

Have a look at their financial performance: https://s201.q4cdn.com/262069030/files/doc_earnings/2024/q1/press-release/Earnings-Release-2024-Q1.pdf

Check out their EBIDTA, cashflow and PE ratio😅 Compare that to Vod. I know I know, I am comparing different sectors, but the argument here is valuation multiples. If you don't believe me, look up Verizon, AT&T etc. Verizon is loading up on debt consistently to pay dividends. In Deutsche Telekom's case, their debt to EBIDTA is 3!

We absolutely live in a multi-polar world. Just sit tight as the tide is bound to go out. The likes of Vod are seriously undervalued relative to the rest of market.

"Both the CFO and CEO would have to agree on that, hang on the CFO is the CEO, problem solved. "

😃

Given vod's substantial cash pile, I would not be surprised if they spent 20-30% of it to settle a few of the long list of outstanding bonds with the highest coupon rates. That would be a prudent measure.

Looking at the list of various bonds, by buying back the top three most expensive ones to the tune of 4billion, cash flow would improve by at least 240m/year. Still leaving 7billion in cash at hand. These bonds carry a coupon of 7.86%, 7% and 6.25% .

Any thoughts?

Its called automation. An increasing number of business workflows are becoming automated and its just the beginning. You simply need less need people to do mountain of manual activities.

As an example, ca 90% of finance people at organisations spent their time processing and manipulating excel sheets, where it can easily be automated.

Xxxaccountant

Agreed. Those who understand the intricate details of investing, business and accounting will appreciate this one. We should be happy that we have the opportunity to top up at these levels.

Lol the sp is trading less than 5x forward cash flow

Added another 8.6% to my holding. Ridiculous price level so happy to sit out this one.

Fun fact is that as the CEO is Italian, this may lead to a positive outcome for the Italian unit. She is bound to get a lot of headlines in Italy and so she should and Italians should be proud of her success. We may experience a flywheel effect shortly.

Debt levels down significantly - leverage is now 2.5 x EBIDTA. Massively undervalued and oversold.

Africa + IoT powering on under the radar.

Its beyond me how anyone can bring up these clowns as bidders for vod. Have you bothered to look up their finances? Their debt ratio is exactly like that of vod. In fact, all telcos carry the same debt burden. Its baked into their business model.

Iliad hasnt even got 1billion in cash.

I advise you to read their statement https://s3.fr-par.scw.cloud/iliad-strapi/slideshow_FY_2022_160323_991a030a4f.pdf
Pay particular attention to page 29.

Their tiny stake in vod is to simply glance at numbers and potential part sale ahead of competition.

At a price point of 2, I would be a seller not a buyer!

Added 9% to my holding at 90.47. Will keep adding if sustained at these levels. A no brainer.

At least the gap is closed.

This stock is massively undervalued and any weakness should be picked up with no questions asked.

We rallied on large volumes and the decline is on significantly lower volumes. Its a classic tree shake.

We are in an upward trend and corrections should be bought and not sold.

Fleccy,
The market is acting like a headless chicken. Vodafone just increased their broadband prices for all customers by 10% in the Netherlands. The ramifications of such price hikes are massive as perviously noted. so happy to accumulate. A 10% increase of prices for 50% of annual revenue will result in additional 2.5biilion pure cash. Happy to keep adding at these ridiculous levels cause once the repricing comes, it will leave many in its dust.