Member Info for meshtrader

AI can't accomplish much without a solid IoT platform. Here is another good article about Vod's position in this space: https://www.telecomtv.com/content/digital-platforms-services/is-the-economy-of-things-a-new-telco-revenue-opportunity-vodafone-thinks-so-47628/

This is an interesting expansion deal demonstrating how Vodafone is leading this segment:

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2023-06-15/hyundai-motor-group-and-vodafone-business-expand-partnership-bringing-new-in-car-infotainment-services-to-customers-in-europe

"Potentially overvalued still, and will people going for cheap mobile deals and keeping handsets longer, plus the dominance of BT/EE in the B2B space, we could see this enter the 60's soon."

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That could be said about literally any services or products regardless of sector. Furthermore, you mention BT and EE, implying as if Vod is as limited to only one market as BT is. A poor and misguided argument.

Jax05

I think you will like this one: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Money-Men-Startup-Billion-Dollar/dp/0552178462/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3KF4WRB0TSKKR&keywords=Money+men&qid=1686813639&sprefix=money+men%2Caps%2C79&sr=8-1

A good example of a massive pump followed by a collapse.

In a way the current pricing action is ideal as there won't be any gaps left on the US side for algos to chase in the future.

Nuri123a

But you are happy to go long the bask case asos?

PS looks like Vod is attracting garbage traders just because it has dropped below 1.00. Hilarious stuff😂

Mulder

Shorting it doesnt make an iota of sense imo. You said it yourself, low volumes etc. It's equally plausible that private investors are driving this like headless chickens. Believe me, there are many who panic as soon as their investments start dropping.

For hedgies to make decent money there has to be meaningful volumes relatively low risk. At these levels, shorting is like playing with fire. It won't take many buy orders to send the sp up closer to 1.00.

A mere 2bn would buy back ca 10% of the outstanding shares if executed around the current levels. Still leaving almost 10bn in the bank.

BOD should now seriously consider this option as it would boost cashflow by ca 300m/year. A great investment imo and value to shareholders.

"The daily drip drip down on low volume is the classic sign of a short selling attack, probably by multiple overseas hedge funds and so not declared by the FCA short tracker."

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No hedge fund worth their salt would short vod at these levels.

If anything, it may be a play by some market makers to force the hand of Liberty Global as he got a 5% stake on leverage. If you look up their accounts you will see their cash position isn't that terribly strong. So a few margin calls may trigger a forced sell. I would not be surprised if we see an RNS shortly saying exactly that - Liberty has sold out.

You know something ain't right when Vodacom is trading at 50% of Vod and Vantage towers at almost 100% of Vod.

As of today, Vodacom's market cap is ca 10.5bn, of which Vod owns 65%.

Mr market deem the rest of Vod isn't worth more than 15bn lol.

You just know this will snap back super hard and fast.

"With artificial intelligence shares all the rage at the moment, the 'boring' shares are unlikely to go up.

It was like this in the year 2000, they only wanted high tech shares, 'boring' shares all went down"

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So you don't assume Vod will be deploying and automating the customer experience thanks to AI? How do you think they are managing their IoT infrastructure, digital payments (MPESA), Customer service, back office etc moving forward?

There is such a vast misattribution as to who will gain and lose in this market. The biggest chunk of telco costs aside from the pure tech investment, lies in the white collar tasks that can easily be automated. With over 100k employees, I suspect at least 1/3 of such roles to vanish in the next 5-10 years.

Now its the time to invest big in telco and vod in particular, not when it's 2.00+. The fad and meme stocks will come crashing down soon enough. DYOR

Ca 1hr left to US open. Let's see what it may bring.

A lot of gamblers - no wonder 90%+ lose their shirts.

Who in their right mind would short at these levels? They deserve all the ensuing losses.

Would be for the merger news to be announced soon after the US open.

What was communicated in yesterday's update that pundits did not pay much attention to concerned the debt allocation instead of cash payment. In a nutshell, my take is that instead of previously aired arrangement for Hutchison to pay Vod in cash over a number of years to make up for the difference in valuation, it seems they will allocate a larger portion of the existing liability in the combined group to Hutchison instead.

This means vod net debt is likely to drop by, I guess, 2-4bn depending on the final valuation of each entity. In a best case scenario net debt will be less than 30bn post merger. That would put vod as the leading major telco with best debt/EBIDTA ratio. They are already a leader on that metric.

"Why is this transformative year different to the 10 that have gone before it?

I seem to remember them having a similar plan, VOD 2016 they called it or something. Cut cost, reduce staff, sell assets, to keep paying div. "

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Three major inflection points come to mind:

1) The Indian government royally screwed vod and as a result the business had to be written down

2) Acquisition of the German entity leading to a higher leverage

3) Covid happened

Why dont you want to see the price being ramped up ahead of the ex-div?

Couldn't resist and trading as per my own conviction. A substantial holding now.

All true fleccy. However, in the world of high finance anything and everything is possible. There used to be only a handful of rotten eggs like Michael Milken and Ivan Boesky back in the 80s. These days the likes of those "profiles" are running the global trade - regrettably.

Fleccy, agreed but it's kind of like the Schrodinger's thought experiment. It would only work if they executed it secretly and in a shock and awe move, otherwise MMs and hedgies will front run them in nanoseconds, rocketing prices to 1+ in a flash.

Even if they acted in secret, they still need to have the buybacks executed by their broker, who always have ways to spread the identity of the buyer.

I believe we are already at the inflection point where a buyer with intent may either take up a substantial stake or a complete takeover. Liberty global took out leverage to get in at 90+ levels!

PS in my previous i meant to say i hope its NOT like the Serbia moment