Member Info for Merciaman

As a shareholder I hope you're right JoeBlog.

There's so much going on in this advertising space - the many posts from LOTM and 2Phevs can an indication of this. The question is will Mirriad benefit financially from it ? Here's hoping.

A certain sense of deja vu this morning - as the share price drifts down somewhat after yesterday's excitement. We have, after all, seen this several times over the past year or more - most recently in late January. It's what Mirriad's share price tends to do.

It will be interesting to see whether the share price continues to drift down back to its pre-jump levels as per "same old Mirriad", or whether it strengthens and holds - that may be a sign of something positive in the offing. We will see.

I remain skeptical with a tinge of hope. Mirriad could do anything from collapse, to accepting a bid, to seeing its share price skyrocket.

LOTM, I calculate that from the IPO back at the end of 2017, and the 4 subsequent cash raises, Mirriad has raised (principally from institutional investors) around £79 million. With 1 billion shares in issue, that fairly obviously works out at around 7.9p per share.

Mirriad has generated a few million of revenue over the years, so not unrealistic to estimate that Mirriad has raised / spent around £85 - £90 million to get to its current position.

Agreed, it's a tricky call.

I'm probably going to hold and see - unless the share price shoots up above 80 quickly (unlikely) in which case I'd probably sell.

Interesting to see / hear what the Dowlais board have to say with the FY results on March 5th.

Indeed - American Axle's share price up today to $5.24, at which level the value of the bid for Dowlais is worth 81.2p per share.

Still unclear as to why there is still the significant difference between the value of the bid and the current Dowlais share price ?

Hi Gruyere,

I've traded in US stocks on the Dow and NASDAQ for a little while now. I use HSBC Invdirect to trade for both UK and US equities.

When I requested to be able to trade in US stocks, Invdirect sent a few forms through to enable me to do so, and then subsequently flagged up that I needed to complete another form - W-8BEN "Certificate of Foreign Status of Beneficial Owner....." I think - to ensure I was identified as being outside the US tax system and therefore not liable for any US taxes.

All done ok. Invdirect sent all the forms through to me, I just completed them, scanned them, and returned them. Suggest you contact your broker accordingly ?

Agreed NQM.

At current share price of $5.12 the value of the bid for Dowlais has reduced from what it was when announced by around 5p per share to roughly 80.4p per share (at £1 = $1.24).

American Axle's share price certainly hasn't been helped by the risk around tariffs either. It'll be interesting to hear what they have to say on their FY24 earnings on the 14th Feb, and then what Dowlais has to say when they announce their results on March 5th.

Agreed - another factor making the case for a higher price for the merger / takeover than is currently on the table ?

Niles, welcome to the board and good luck with your investment.

There is indeed lots of positive sentiment / speculation on this board, driven by several posters who've indicated they have significant shareholdings - fair play to them for backing up words with action.

I've been a shareholder since mid 2022, and for that period of nearly 3 years there's usually been plenty of positive potential around Mirriad. Unfortunately, this hasn't been matched by anything concrete in terms of monetising their technology. This is one key reason why the share price is as bombed out as it is.

Another is that Mirriad will, come the summer, most likely be out of cash. The company has raised cash from shareholders 4 times since the business listed in 2017. Will the major institutional investors support the business once more ? A fair question. Can Mirriad develop any other way of supporting itself through to being able to successfully monetise its technology ? Also a fair question.

So DYOR and take a view accordingly. Why am I still holding my shares ? Because mentally I've written off my investment, if Mirriad goes bust the loss will be useful to offset signficant capital gains I'm sitting on elsewhere, and who knows, maybe, just maybe, Mirriad does deliver something - even though I have to say I doubt it.

Last week's events did indeed create a sense of deja vu. Some share price movement, the presence / return of a few posters to the board, several comments about big news due soon to move the share price significantly upwards.

The usual continuation of this is radio silence from Mirriad, a fizzling out of comments, and the share price drifting back down to where it was. I think I've seen this at least a couple of times over the past 18 months or so.

I very much hope that I'm wrong and that there is some positive news that does move the share price upward, but I share LL's skepticism. Despite all the informed speculation the facts remain that Mirriad is burning cash, will run out of cash in June / July, and in the absence of any positive / dramatic news will need to arrange to raise money over the next couple of months to stay in business.

Here's hoping, but not expecting.

Jam69p, saw some other replies so for what it's worth some thoughts as follows.

LOTM is right to say that he and 2Phevs are by far the most active contributors to this board. They represent, I'd guess, 85%+ of the posts. More days than not the number of their posts to each other outweigh the number of trades in Mirriad shares, so that tells you something. Fair play to both of them, they have significant stakes in Mirriad, and have considerable skin in the game.

A lot of their posts essentially speculate on social media (linkedin) links and likes and on what that may be telling us about what may be going on behind the scenes. Fair enough, but this is clearly not material in terms of having a positive financial impact on Mirriad - if it was, there'd be some RNSs to say so. The lack of RNSs speaks volumes.

I think it's fair to say that LOTM and 2phevs take an optimistic view of Mirriad - they "believe". I take a more sceptical view given the cratering of the share price over the past 12 to 18 months.

Given I've got some shares myself it would be great if their optimistic tone is rewarded by positive company developments and a rising share price. I'm not sure it will be be. Mirriad is, I think, going to fly or is going bust, there isn't really a middle ground.

I think the odds are 90/10 in favour of it going bust. The business will run out of cash in June / July, so will need a cash raise or investment shortly to keep going. I think the only realistic sources for said raise is either from the institutional investors they've tapped 3 or 4 times already, or a tech partner of some sort. The future is uncertain.

Mirriad has routinely failed to deliver over the past couple of years. Partly this is unfavorable market conditions, partly their execution, partly the difficulty of resolving complex rights issues in their (programmatic) solution.

So why am I holding ? Well 1) mentally I've written off my investment so if it collapses then it collapses, 2) if it did somehow fly I'd hate to have missed out, and 3) if it does go pop I can use the loss to mitigate some other sizeable capital gains on which I'm currently sitting.

Please DYOR, good luck with whatever decision you take.

Agree with that LL - both as a source of finance and a signal that it may be possible for Mirriad to monetise its technology.

Reading the posts on this board, it is almost surreal. There are essentially two conversations going on in parallel.

One is between 2phevs and LOTM, flagging up links and contacts between various players in the industry and how this might help Mirriad. Another is driven by Lovable, with the odd comment or two from others thrown in, focussing on the continuing poor financial numbers.

One is hope, the other is reality ? To paraphrase a previous comment from one of the "positive" posters you either "believe" in Mirriad or you don't.

What is clear from the turnover and cash position stats is that to keep going beyond the half year Mirriad will need a cash raise. I think that the institutional investors are the only likely source of funding for this. The question is are they minded to support it, do they "believe", or not ?

Agreed LL, I'd expect announcements (positive or negative) - and there have to be some - in the coming few weeks.

Whether the IIs decide to be supportive of another raise, who knows. If I was them I'd have limited confidence in the current board and what it is saying given its record over the past few months. Another investor in the wings ? Doubtful in my view, but I'd be very happy to be proved wrong.

If there is a raise, implying some confidence in the future, I'd expect a share consolidation as well.

LL, my guess based on Mirriad's own numbers and the usually slow H1 is they're out of cash in June '25.

Even if they were succesful in signing any more substantial contracts in H1 '25, and that's dubious, they'd need some cash to tide them over until any such contracts actually deliver any revenue. So I don't see how they can do without a pretty imminent cash raise to continue trading.

From where ? There must surely be very little if any retail appetite for these shares, don't see anyone lending them money, and I don't think they have any assets to sell - so Institutional Investors are the only cash raise option I can see.

Whether existing or possibly new IIs would be interested in participating is perhaps the essential question.

£10.50 is a possibility, but I guess we're speculating really. Not sure anyone would have predicted the rise of around £4 per share since it hit a low below £6 in early September, but that's exactly what has happened.

For what it's worth I'd guess that, no external shocks / events permitting, it'll trade between £9 and £10 over the next few weeks as people wait to see before the Q3 update. What that update then tells us about Christmas trading, China / asia demand, and initial feedback on the strategy / plan outlined at the half year results will all be key foci.

Hi Crystalbank67 - isn't the 3rd quarter trading update scheduled for the 24th January ?

Share price has moved up nicely over the past couple of weeks - maybe from an oversold position ? Perhaps the need for govt action to push forward the purchase of electric vehicles ? Or a bit of bid talk with TI have recently accepted a takeover offer ?

Tells you all you need to know. If institutional investors are selling out, they're not going to support any further raise, therefore the business will be out of cash during the first half of 2025.

Probably the least surprising update you can imagine. Mirriad has developed some excellent technology that it does not look like it can monetise.

Hold, but only as a tax loss when the company goes into liquidation.