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Depends on what their revenues have been so far this year NewcastleForever. If those revenues have been as poor as usual, first half of the year in particularly, then they're out of cash end July latest. If all the activity flagged up by posters on this board actual translates to a material revenue increase, then that would give them several months more runway at least.

Bear in mind their running costs are now around £8 million per annum. There is no debt / no debt finance costs.

Really we await the next RNS. Will it indicate some monetisation of their technology and improving revenues ? Will it indicate the need for a cash raise and how said raise might be achieved (usually via institutions) ? Will it indicate some sort of strategic partnership with a player in this space ? Your guess is as good as mine and any of the posters on this board.

Great find 2phevs - but I doubt there's going to be a company RNS now relating to news from a summit that happened on the 25th February ? I'd guess if there was going to be one it would / should have happened a while ago ?

There's certainly no specific "news" or events driving down the share price, but a lot of negative momentum fuelled by concerns over demand in China, tariffs in the US, and potentially a weak final quarter overall (J P Morgan's "negative watch" move a couple of weeks ago). The share price has fallen by over 25% in March.

The year end is just a few days away, so Burberry should be pretty clear where they're going to finish. The results announcement is in 7 weeks and as of yet they've seen no need to issue any announcement indicating any deterioration in performance, but we'll see.

What's expected in the results ? I'd guess everyone wants to see a profitable H2 that takes them above break even for the year, improving demand / slowing rate of decline in the main markets, evidence of their cost cutting going to plan, and successful renegotiation of any debt facilities. Fingers crossed.

Hi Ksundaram59,

One thing to bear in mind is that the the offer is cash and AXL shares, and when the offer of "85p" was made, that was based on an AXL share price of around $5.82 per share.

The AXL share price has dropped to a current figure of $4.55, and this would then value the offer for Dowlais at around 76p.

American Axle's share price has been undoubtedly hit by all the tariff back and forth, with autos and complex auto supply chains involving several moves across borders being one of the most badly affected sectors.

Having said that, American Axle's share price was back at $5.80 just after it announced its results, so no reason why it can't go back up again, especially if the tariff confusion eases and analysts can sensibly calculate future earnings and cashflow.

Beyond that there has been a persistent gap between the Dowlais share price and the offer price, whatever the value of AXL shares - maybe a suspicion remains that the deal won't happen ?

Col27,

LOTM is right in that the share price could rise sharply from where it is, indeed by several multiples.

The current market cap is under £3 million, probably a discount to the cash the business has left. Worth remembering that he company has raised around £79 million through its initial IPO and subsequent multiple cash raises, the equivalent of 7.9p per share (roughly), or 30x the current share price. The vast majority of that cash has been raised from institutional investors who, you would presume, would want to see better return on their investment than the current -97% or so.

But bear in mind that the share price later this year could be zero. We have no idea whether the activity involving Mirriad will translate into sales - historically it hasn't - and the current cash will last only to midsummer.

Mirriad's share price could multibag from here, or it could become worthless.

Certainly is. I sold some shares at £12.37 just after the Q3 update in late January, just bought them back 7 to 8 weeks later for a little over £9.

Hoping that the selling momentum is running out and that the share will rise into the FY results in just under 8 weeks - though given the fall / rise / fall again over the past 6 to 12 months who really knows ?

.....It will indeed LOTM.

Hi LOTM,

For me "material" = dollars / pounds.

After all this time it really is all about bucks. The rest is conversation.

Maybe it's not a news blackout, maybe they have nothing material to say ?

Yes, there seems to be a lot going on as 2phevs and LOTM's research suggest, but the question has to be - as it long has been - what does any of that do for Mirriad's finances ? To date the answer to that question has been "very little, if any".

If I was a betting man, I'd guess that at present the BoD are either 1) in discussion with institutional investors about another cash raise, or 2) in discussion with other parties about some sort of alliance / merger / takeover that might monetise their tech, or 3) both of the above. Any of these might explain to some degree the lack of comms.

Certainly been clobbered today along with several other "luxury" stocks - albeit more severely than most.

Fears continue about the USA economy slowing down, tariffs driving prices up, etc. Given the US was a bright spot in the results presented in January then the risk of anything that could choke off recovery there is probably going to impact Burberry - and vice versa if sentiment improves.

Agree its volatile and will likely stay that way through until the final results in mid May at the least.

The lack of shares held by the board has long been a bone of contention. Sure, there will be closed periods when they cannot buy, but the last purchase was, I think, in July 2023. That's not exactly a vote of confidence in the company.

The CEO's compensation is another bone of contention - I think Stephan Beringer's salary is around £450k per annum, or more than 40% of last year's revenue.

It is understandable that many shareholders are frustrated with the company and the board - lack of skin in the game, high salary, lack of comms to shareholders and a poor shareholder's website.

Given that Mirriad will have to rely on the willingness of institutional investors to stump up another cash raise - since non financial institution is going to lend them money, and a retail offer wouldn't generate interest - you'd have expected better.

I doubr you'll need to wait a few years to see if Mirriad comes good.

I think that given its cash position and cash burn, there should be some sort of announcement regarding its future in April / May. No idea what the subject matter of that announcement would be, I guess that will depend on what level of sales they've been able to realise from the ongoing activity.

The future could be bright, there could be no future, but I'd guess we'll find out sooner rather than later.

Hi LOTM,

Not something I'd seen before. Dates from late 2021 which is before my time as a shareholder.

Can only speculate that it's one of those initiatives that, for any number of reasons, didn't gain any traction.

Hi LOTM, wouldn't argue with your analysis. A key point to take from that there may well be no "big news" or "announcement", because there isn't an announcement to make. Those posting on this board about buying ahead of said news should be aware of that.

Mirriad may be gradually increasing its sales / turnover and client base as you suggest. Fingers crossed on that. I guess we'll find out whether that is indeed that case through March / April / May - by whether or not they need to raise cash again, and if so how much.

Makes a lot of sense Sir Hector.

To my mind AML despite the high ASP and £90k of gross margin per car, doesn't make enough operating profit (gross margin, less opex, excluding D&A) per car - it therefore can't fund its capex, let alone its finance costs.

And a lot of the opex costs seem pretty fixed. Whenever AML have a low sales quarter the opex cost per car shoots up, and opex per car often plummets in Q4 when they push through all the sales they can.

They are in horrible half way house - not selling enough cars to justify the opex that could probably build a lot more cars than they currently sell.

To break even they'd need to either raise sales significantly (to maybe 10,000 cars) or trim costs accordingly. Continuing as they are won't work. Perhaps Hallmark is onto something, although I guess it will take (a few more) years to deliver.

Agreed 2phevs, the trading volumes so far this year are probably greater than for the whole 2nd half of 2024, and maybe for pretty much all of 2024. No question that there is some momentum here - has to be in the absence of any company news.

We wait to see if anything material (and positive) comes through to justify the momentum.

I don't think it is a given Fonzi.

If anything had been signed last week, anything that would have been material to the share price, it should have been flagged up via an RNS pretty much immediately ? No RNS......

Might the activity lead to something being signed - yes. But there's no guarantee of that. We've seen plenty of activity in the past lead to nothing concrete financially.

"How long until we see a major RNS......" is the key question.

Is there any reason why Mirriad would not issue an RNS next week describing how this week has gone if nothing else ?

Hi LOTM,

Fair question, you may be right in your reasoning, and there may be a positive tipping point on the horizon - maybe in the near term.

That potential positive needs to be balanced against Mirriad's track record - of multiple associations that have essentially come to nought financially, for a variety of reasons.

Fingers crossed you and 2phevs are right - we'll only know if and when we get a positive RNS.

LOTM's post defines the potential here.

Lovable's posts from earlier today demonstrate the history / reality of / for Mirriad.

It seems clear that this advertising space is in a fast changing flux, and Mirriad is involved in this. That, to me, is something concrete from that the linkedin posts and related research indicate.

Something else that is concrete is that without a rise in revenue or a cash injection Mirriad runs out of cash in the summer. They have an £8 million annual cost base. They've never (to date) generated more than £2 million in annual revenue.

It is unclear (to me, and maybe many others) to what degree Mirriad can monetise their technology and their involvement (as highlighted by the linkedin research) into anything like the numbers that LOTM outlines.

The next RNS could signal anything from contract announcement, through cash raise, to advice of administration. Anyone and everyone who invests needs to be aware of all the possibilities, positive and negative.

Mirriad may not be on some investors' radar because they truly are not aware of the company or the potential. Or they may well be aware of the company and choose not to invest. Most of the Institutional investors who've been around for a while remain invested I think ?

I continue to hold for reasons I've outlined at least a couple of times previously. Good luck to anyone who chooses to invest, in full knowledge of the range of possibilities ahead, and as always DYOR.