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Completely agree on the spectacular inaccuracy of many oil price predictions. I suspect that OPEC will want to hold oil at something between $60 to $70 per barrel, maybe ideally $60 to $65. That level probably just about works for the oil based economies without making oil so attractive it starts to suck in investment for another glut of production, most obviously in US shale.
I suspect the upcoming update will be a positive one, and I suspect at least a part of that is already in the price. The update would need to be spectacular to drive the share price significantly higher, but like robdouglas77 I don't see why 235/240 is unachievable. One key thing, maybe the key thing, is to what degree increasing production x stable oil price will reduce debt in future. The financial intensive care is surely now complete, sorted by the rights issue and the debt refinancing. If the likelihood is that debt will fall more quickly than expected / priced-in, and Tullow becomes a more "normal" oil business more quickly, then that may drive a re-rating.
Carrington, agree with your thinking that there is a better platform for improvement in place at M & S. One of the things Archie Norman has said in the past about "turnarounds" is that there has to be something in place to turn around - or that "the heart is still beating" to, I think, quote him. After the career he's had I do not think he is going take the risk of a high profile failure blotting his copybook. He must be confident that some things are moving forward at M &S, that the heart is indeed still beating, and that he can add further value.
Guess a reflection of the strengthening pound yesterday. Given the predominance of dollar earnings / valuation Melrose's share price will always be susceptible to short term currency based movements.
Will be interesting to see what happens later today and over the next few days after the analyst presentation at 11am. Likely to be some two way trade as some investors take some profits, but suspect that overall the momentum in the business will continue to drive the share price higher. Certainly not selling out yet !
Anyone aware of when the pre close statement will be made ? According to Topps website the "estimated" date is tomorrow.....?
Share just seems totally friendless currently.
Not sure of the impact, but it certainly has the feel of one of the regulatory concerns that has been flagged up by the board / in the report & accounts. I think it also confirms the sense in trying to expand the reach of the business into related areas such as the recent legal acquisition rather than be dependent upon a more narrow stream of business that is probably vulnerable to this sort of regulation.
I think the September results will be key - and I think the underlying performance of the enlarged business will determine where the share price goes. Can the acquisitions enhance the earnings of the formerly core business which is and probably will continue to be in turnover (but maybe not margin) decline ? This is why the board raised the cash to buy other businesses in my view, to counter the likely decline in the original core business - both from regulatory pressures, and their focus (I think) on profitable business rather than turnover. Any autofocus settlement may end up being a bit of a sideshow / special dividend - with every £10 million of settlement equating to an increase in net asset value (or dividend) of 0.37 pence per share with the current 2.7 billion shares in issue.. I think the board have sensibly downplayed expectations, and will probably continue their recent track record of underpromise / overdeliver. My hope - a special dividend later this year to reflect a successful Autofocus outcome, and then results showing an increase in earnings / EPS laying the foundation for a rise in the share price. Fingers crossed !
I think Helphire has moved out of intensive care into a relatively stable position, and expect the share price to reflect this. I can't really see a repeat of the sort of sharp gains we have enjoyed over the past 12 to 18 months and expect future share price moves to be driven by business fundamentals. Fortunately many of these seem to be in decent shape - a core business that looks solid, what looks like an earnings enhancing acquisition still to fully work through into the results, plenty of cash in the bank to fund further acquisitions, the prospect of a boost from an Autofocus settlement, and a commitment to dividend. There are also risks, including the impact of possible further regulation, but on balance I see a share price target of 8p (or 80p post consolidation) as realistic and plan to stick around for a while longer.
Happy to see news of the share consolidation, and 10 for 1 sounds about right. I would guess this will help make the share / dividend / yield more attractive to some institutions.
It was in the "briefing" section of the databank page. I'd describe it as mildly favourable, but was really a factual review of the fall and recovery, reporting of the company's own commentary, and little offered in the way of opinion. Indicated that Helphire "is expected to report underlying pre-tax profits of £7.5 million for the current financial year, up from £4.3 million". By my rough calculation that suggests EPS of about 0.5p per share pre £60 million fund raising.
Agree on the share consolidation KNIGELK - maybe 5 to 1 or 10 to 1 creating a share price that might be considered more attractive / less risky to larger investors ?
Interesting position. At the current share price the company is valued at a fraction over it's net book value I think, and that seems harsh in relation to the work that's gone on to turn the business round. However, probably understandable at this stage. What is fair going forward ? 2x NBV (implies a share price of c.10p) ? 50% premium (implies 7 to 8p) ? In terms of dividend, 0.28p total for the year gives a yield around 5.4%, on the high side. A share price of 7p would bring the yield down to 4% which sounds more in line with the market ? Is 7p a sensible share price target ?
Unless I've misread the stats, trading volumes seem to be up yesterday / today.....
Am guessing that news last week of Neil Woodford's departure from Invesco is weighing on the shares - given the size of their shareholding ?