Member Info for meoryou

Things we now know

Economics crap at predicting inflation

Brokers crap at predicting BP sp

Half of oil analysts crap at predicting oil price( sometimes it’s the it will be lower half that’s wrong ,sometimes it’s the it will be higher half that are wrong)

Boris crap at telling the truth.

Putin crap at invading other countries.

Trump just crap

Very interesting.

The power of this board at its best

The only problem with what you suggest is by selling % to make up your income,next time your income has already dropped by 9% so to get the same income you need to sell even more.

That was my position ( and many others) after oil spill.

At that time my div was over £4,000,per quarter, then suddenly zero.

So had to sell some shares to pay a bill ( it was a holiday final payment).

Then some more needed sold each year as income much lower

Even now having managed to buy back shares I sold ,div is still half of what I was getting 13 years ago.

We each as you say have different personal finances

Agreed we always have looked at what Shell are doing.

Although often BP was a leader,not just a follower ( eg first Super Major etc).

It’s also very good that a larger div will be more affordable due to reduced share count.

Debts are low enough to be no longer a real concern.

New financial framework

Debts to drop $1 b per year.

Share count to drop by at least 1% each year.

Rest to be paid in div based on $60 oil.

Surplus to be used for extra buyback events,as and when board feel it’s worthwhile.

Div always to be affordable at $60 oil,and break even always to be at least $10 lower.If oil below $60 for more than 1 quarter we accept that div should drop,you need to earn to pay out,not just borrow.

So we never undo the good work that has been carried out on balance sheet.

Just my wish list

It’s time to ignore the politicians,they have made it plain the don’t care about us.

With age on your side it’s truly amazing what compounding will do for you,if you manage to only reinvest divs.

10 years of reinvesting and the number of shares is so so much larger.

The only trick then is to hope that value of sp has not dropped so total value not still the same.

There must be some winners in that group of shares.

Sometimes it’s pot luck.

In the early 2000s I had 4 shares that were taken over out of 12.

I would happily have kept them(S&N,SP,ICI ,Boots)as was happy with them.

Like your posts,keep up the good work

Happy

Nobody wants to quote inflation adjusted oil price figures,that would spoil the whole media and politicians spin on windfalls and big bad oil companies

Happy

Although oil has been weak of late.

In reality it’s a very average oil price historically so not really too bad( just not as good as the good times).There does still appear to be support when oil price struggles,and the two oil price camps still appear as far apart as ever.

I’m looking forward to finally getting some financial figures on renewables, promised in next quarter results so we can finally start to judge how good or bad theses decisions have been.

Probably about 3 opportunities to sell out at £5.70 during that time period

But I’m sure you already know that.

Currently the good times as far as sp is concerned still appear to be an illusion.

The underlying business however is still a cash cow.

I’m sure you don’t miss the frustration of watching the BP sp.

Theaky

Some reply’s from earnings call

Our bio production capacity across the business is about 27 KBD at the end of 2022, and we continue to grow that through the decade as we bring online biofuels plants and expand the efficiency of the existing ones. Of course, an awful lot of the profit we make inside Bios inside trading as well. And we'll start to bring disclosures on the bio side and 2Q results. We'll show you where we're getting to on EBITDA from our transition growth engines. So there'll be more to provide you with their Irene as opposed to today. I hope that's okay.

On current performance, it's a bit of an anomaly in the quarter, where the fuel margins were in refining as opposed to in the inside mobility, a fairly sizable number. So that's what makes it look a little bit suppressed. Additionally, we're really pushing hard on the bio space, and we're really pushing hard on the electrification space. So those create losses, again, we'll come show you a bit more granularity on that at the second quarter results. So because you've got growth engines inside that, it creates a little bit of a suppressed number along with the fuel margin that we saw.

Okay. Great. I think in Archaea, as you said, I mean, it's a little bit early to be saying anything. We'll update the markets at our event in October in Denver, where we'll go through Archaea as well. I think that will be a more appropriate time. I think we remain pleased with that 50 operating plants, 80 to build. When we bought it -- when we put the economics together for the bid, such on Archaea, the IRA really wasn't in place and we were unclear in it.

So it looks like they are slowly starting to give out a little financial info on all these renewables.

I agree it time we understood a lot more about them ,so we can understand what is actually delivering.

Https://www.petrolplaza.com/news/32959

On very simple maths since buybacks last few months have been buying back at about a 20% discount to the recent high,just maybe we could self finance a 20% rise.

It’s getting time for the worm to turn and start a bigger move on div.

But don’t want buybacks to just cease ,still want to see share reduction year on year

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Assessing-Labours-Energy-Agenda-Does-It-Meet-UKs-Needs.html

Div meant to rise 4% from same quarter a year ago.

So will see different year to year but not quarter to quarter.

Try putting into google the following

bp partners for hydrogen production

It’s a good start for who they are linking up with.

BP has lots of experience in Hydrogen,they have been producing it in refineries for many years.

They have roughly the same expertise as anyone at present as it’s all new technology.

But they have about a dozen mega Hydrogen projects world wide, and a stated aim to capture 10% of the world market.

If Hydrogen is the next big thing BP is placed to be a big part of it.

Nightpusher

I don’t think in itself the strategic reserve has the same relevance as before,but as part of all the reserves,I think it still has a part to play.

The moment total world reserves get below a critical level ( whatever level that is), you just know some event will come along and cause a problem.

Too many countries are currently energy complacent even after the whole Russia Ukraine thing.

Sod’s Law says a problem always arrives at the worst possible time.

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 7 June 2023 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2023 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 3,841,565 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 2 May 2023 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:

Highest price paid per Share (pence): 475.50

Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 467.15

Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 471.611

To be honest, maybe the strategic reserve would be more likely to come into play if Iran decided to play games.

They always appear to be taking calculated risks, and already US has boosted forces in the Persian Gulf due to their games ( and they are still pals with Russia)

I would hazard a guess that the 353.6 million barrels are not all available barrels,as doubt all can be pumped out,( unless that figure is only available barrels).

So if at least 10% ( a guess)has to be left in storage are we getting close to the end game?

This week, SPR inventory dropped for the tenth week in a row as another 1.8 million barrels of congressionally mandated crude oil was sold during the week ending June 2. There are now 353.6 million barrels—the lowest amount of crude oil in the SPR since September 1983.

So there is the answer to Theaky question.

US still,paying politics,and their reserve is getting rather low