Member Info for meoryou

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/bp-azerbaijans-socar-make-maiden-bid-israeli-offshore-gas-sources-2023-07-17/

Hi Mark

As owners of an Oil Company we have to hope that when the physical market starts to lead the paper market,then the paper market starts to overcompensate to the up side.

Would be nice then to see OPEC defend $100 on the upside as a top price, as do not want to see anything higher, as it will only encourage demand destruction.

Mark

This is starting to be a problem.

That’s at least 3 times I am aware of.

It’s starting to become “The Wild West “ of oil.

News wires have a duty of care to confirm stories.

Like you say someone’s making lots of money

Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4617426-aker-bp-stock-operationally-phenomenal-but-relevant-interest-creep-reiterate-hold

Https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/business/bp-investing-100-million-in-upgrades-at-indiana-wind-farm/article_7dd82fe2-21c7-11ee-8d09-fb3d355bf008.html

BP/renewables: German breeze wheeze saves face — and capital

https://news.aqrefx.com/2023/07/16/bp-renewables-german-breeze-wheeze-saves-face-and-capital/

Only the % of employees who have a medical reason for being pensioned off will receive full pension.

Otherwise you probably have to be over 55 and would only get a pro-rata % of your pension related to years of service.

Thanks Mark

Sometimes it’s nice to just take it back to basics.

We are still up more than them

Tinker

Would just like to add that’s the best headline in ages.

Think the only one that could beat it is

BP Now Sick Squid

Tinker

I see it as an America effect, as it starts at 2:30 ish.

Think US maybe taking profits on crude before the weekend, as crude has dropped also.Even as crude headlines suggest that prices are going higher.

DOW is still,okay, and it’s affecting all oilers

I suspect it’s just a derisking.

Time will tell.

Don’t Panic Mr Mannering!

WP

2 other things I took from the article

Were

1)

But the fact that sector veterans Orsted (ORSTED.CO) and RWE (RWEG.DE) quit the bidding process at an earlier stage should give cause for concern.

Maybe BP has just bought a seat at the table, as the threat to walk away if things get too expensive might just buy a better price.

BP is used to walking away so the threat would be real

2)

It says under graph BP don’t have to start paying the 90% till 2 decades after project first generates power, potentially 2030.

Obviously there is something wrong with their timeline,I suspect they mean 2 years after first power, but it does have the potential to self fund.

Hayward would be ordered to walk the plank,

I think money talked too much before safety during his time in charge.

I believe he was in some ways at least 10% to blame for the oil spill.

There is an article on Reuters about the latest wind purchase which is interesting.

It basically says if electric prices stay high there may be much more cash to be made, and if they don’t stay high, BP may just walk away and only loose the deposit.It’s structured so most of the rest of payments come out of operating cash.

It also had a graph showing costs of the buy ins for off shore wind and the first couple were very cheap.

The article is at

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/bps-german-wind-option-risks-multiple-blowbacks-2023-07-13/

For anyone who wishes to read for them selves

1300 GMT - BP's key themes for 2Q results will be the quarter-on-quarter degradation in global gas prices and refining margins, while market focus will inevitably be on shareholder distributions, Citi analysts write in research note. "Under the variable formula we would see 3Q buybacks at somewhere around $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion, down from the $1.75 billion of 2Q, and in-line with the softer macro trend," they say. No changes on the other two key guidance items--quarterly dividends and capital expenditure--are expected, they add. Citi maintains its buy rating on the stock, but lowers its price target to 575 pence. (christian.moess@wsj.com)

Come on Charlie stop bringing Logic to the party.

It’s much more fun when we moan irrational about sp.

Only kidding, sometimes little bits of movement in sp do make sense.

Then we try to make sense of the other times and only end up confused.

I remember a time when oil oil price and how much oil was available were almost the only thing driving sp, and I’m sure that was only 4 years ago.

Thanks Halma

It’s always nice to find out little bits about posters on here.

BP div usually pays for the holidays

The following is about half way down the article ( and deals with a legal fight over decommissioning costs)

Forties: Apache in lawful battle with Neo, Esso, Shell and BP

End of existence particulars have emerged in a lawful case among Apache, as operator, and current and former collaborators or owners on the field. These firms incorporate Neo Energy, Esso Exploration and Production, Shell and BP.

The divide of current decommissioning obligations among the companies is unclear.

Apache and the additional firms are arguing the conditions of a decommissioning protection accord (DSA) helpful Apache and Neo to provide protection for the price of decommissioning.

The Apache Forties Delta platform.

Under UK law, should the current owner of a platform fail to convene decommissioning costs, the obligation cascade to additional collaborators or former owners.

Part of what led to the disagreement – and the rationale cited via the evaluator for the sped up timeline to end assembly – is Apache including a calculation of inflation, quoting a £779m cost, in the plan. This used to be factored into its estimate of the leftover prosperity on Forties.

Esso, Shell and BP argued effectively this increase estimate is at anticipation with the DSA.

Judge Mark Pelling governed an autonomous proficient should appear up with an replacement plan.

Apache’s Forties field layout.

Asked whether the judgement will change its intentions for Forties, Apache established it is creation an appeal.

A representative said: “Due to an continuing address of the decision and secrecy provisions in the decommissioning protection agreement, we cannot comment.

“Decommissioning protection agreements prescribe assumptions and formulas which necessitybe applied via the operator for the purposes of calculating security.

“Whilst they should, therefore, normally reflect operations, this will not continuously be the case.”

Shell and BP received the ruling, while Neo and Esso did not reply to requests for comment.

Https://aqreter.xyz/uk/apache-blueprints-for-earlier-than-expected-end-to-colossal-forties-oilfield-206215.html

WP

I was retired in 2002 at age 42 ( on full pension).

Simultaneously I was also made redundant after 25 year’s service.

So financially not too bad.

BP sold the Refinery about 5 years later, so timing wise not too bad.

Been a shareholder since early 80s due to employee share scheme.

Still learning after 40 odd years of owning BP shares

I can understand why a return of. 6-8% does not excite.

We used to have to be able to show a return on capital of at least 16% to get board approved for CapEx at Grangemouth Refinery.

However a 6-8. return does at least allow for a predictable return and would allow you to smooth out the earnings peaks and troughs.

It’s easy to say oil projects aim to get better than 16 % return , but sometimes that return is closer to zero.

Boring, predictable lower earning however are never a vote winner.

WP

Last year about this time sp was very similar with general weakness.

Then suddenly 16 th July we were back in fashion.( £1 jump over a couple of weeks)

I don’t really subscribe to history repeating itself, but we can sure hope so.