Under Investment in Oil and Gas is Exaggerated5 Jul 2023 18:58
Persistent claims of chronic underinvestment in the global oil and gas industry are overblown, Rystad Energy research and analysis shows. Investments in the upstream sector have tumbled since spending peaked at $887 billion in 2014, with about $580 billion expected to be invested this year. The number of completed wells has also fallen, from 88,000 in 2014 to 59,000 this year.
As a result, many market participants predict that this trend will continue and lead to chronic underinvestment and an oil supply shortage in the coming years. However, our modeling and analysis tell a different story. Lower unit prices, efficiency gains, productivity gains, and evolving portfolio strategies have significantly increased the upstream industry’s efficiency. In other words: the industry can do the same as before, but at a much lower cost. Although investments have shrunk, activity and production remain healthy and on par with the levels seen from 2010 to 2014.
“Contrary to popular opinion, the world is investing appropriate amounts of money in fossil fuel production to satisfy demand. Cost savings mean operators can produce the same amount of oil at a lower cost, and we don’t foresee an oil supply crisis due to underinvestment on the immediate horizon,” says Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy.