Member Info for MCNol

The most important thing for a PI is to distinguish between Price Action (which can be manipulated) and Volume (which cannot)...

Over 250 million shares (nearly 4% of the company) have traded. This is a historic handover of the shareholder register. This volume at these prices is typically the "foundation" for a major trend change...

The February 12th update confirmed that integrated processing at the Pinon Canyon Plant in Colorado was scheduled to begin "this week."

The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of 0.704p remains the most important metric. The Whale is effectively pinning the value here. In a massive capital structure like this, the Whale needs this high volume to build a position without causing a "spike and collapse" that would alert other predatory algorithms....

Right now, the Whale is likely in "Observation Mode." They have no reason to chase the price higher while volume is low...

By allowing the price to drift or stay flat at 0.70p, they are waiting for retail traders to get "bored" or anxious and sell their shares back into the bid...

They will likely use small Iceberg orders at 0.69p or 0.70p. These orders hide their true size, only showing 50k or 100k shares at a time, but automatically refilling as soon as someone sells...

They created the morning activity to "prime the pump." They have successfully turned the sentiment from "Panic" (0.65p) to "Stabilisation" (0.70p). Now, they are simply waiting for the supply to dry up so they can launch the next leg of the recovery...

It’s a classic, frustrating paradox of the internet... the more value you provide, the bigger the target on your back. In the high-stakes arena of the UK stock market, especially with a volatile mover like HE useful information isn't just "data"; it’s a threat to someone else's strategy...

Investing is deeply emotional. If a trader or CFD gambler just sold their entire position in a panic at 0.65p, and you post "useful info" explaining why the 0.75p sweep means the stock is heading higher, you are effectively telling them they made a massive mistake....

Rather than admit they were wrong, it is psychologically easier to attack you as a "pumper" or a "shill." By discrediting the messenger, they protect their own ego from the pain of a bad trade..

Online communities can suffer from the "crabs in a bucket" syndrome: if one crab tries to climb out (by being knowledgeable and successful), the others pull it back down..

On boards like LSE "reputation" is a currency. A new or highly accurate poster threatens the "alpha" status of long-time posters who might not actually know what they’re talking about...

....and then there is "The Paranoid Troll" They believe nobody provides useful info for free. They assume that if you are posting high-quality data, you must be "paid by the company" or trying to "dump your bags" on them. They attack as a form of "pre-emptive self-defence."

I would pay them little heed, read the posts if you find them amusing or filter them, they hate being ignored however and often pipe up more until they get a reaction....I am looking at you @Blubay :)

Notice the "odd" price points like 0.73478p. Retail platforms usually round to two or four decimals. These five-decimal prints are the signature of institutional algorithms (like "VWAP" or "Iceberg" orders) that are slicing a massive multi-million share order into smaller, precise pieces to avoid alerting the rest of the market....

@Brookieboy69. As I have said many times, I have a core holding which is free carry. I also trade this (and many other shares) and I have traded this constantly over the past few years...

I never said it was a "large hedge fund' however it could be, it is someone getting a "Toe-hold" which could be for many reasons, like a Strategic partner, takeover, nominee holder hedging...

There is a significant shift in velocity and execution style. The 09:22:07 sequence is particularly revealing; seeing dozens of trades print at the exact same millisecond across two different prices (0.70p and 0.75p) suggests a massive "sweep" of the order book....

...There is a filter button...use it?

The "Whale" is clearly in control of the 0.69p - 0.70p range. They are not chasing the price up to the 0.75p asks yet; they are waiting for the sellers to come to them...

If that 716k print is followed by another million-share block at 0.70p, it’s a sign the "hoovering" phase is ending and the "markup" phase toward 0.75p is about to begin...

It is just Trolls trying to silence people because they do not want knowledge shared, it goes against their CFD betting this morning...

Based on trades in the last 10 minutes there is a specific sequence, it looks like accumulation via manipulation...

By driving the price through 0.70p down to 0.65p, they created a "liquidity event." They essentially forced the market to give them millions of shares at a discount. The fact that the price is already back at 0.70p suggests that the selling pressure was "artificial" or exhausted, and the real demand is now supporting the price again...

If they have finished their "shake," they will want the 9 AM auction to uncross at or above 0.70p to signal to the rest of the market that the bottom is in...

Oh dear...

"I’m open to persuasion. I’m just observing that there was no 8.2 million trade at 4.30pm. There was no 7am RNS today. There was no whale trading behaviour. But there was a lot of exit liquidity spiked by a creatively worded RNS and supported by a well curated narrative"

Source - @Blubay

As I clearly stated at the time this 8.2M was a sell limit order...I can explain what this is for you @Blubay if that helps?

I have insisted a "Whale" is present because the data demands it. The forensic evidence of the last days specifically the 745 Million volume on a SETSqx friction-heavy market...makes it mathematically impossible for this to be just "retail churn."

If I see a footprint that is 5 feet long, I insist a giant was there, even if I haven't seen his face (the TR-1) yet...

Here is why I stand by the "Whale Theory" 100%, even if no TR-1 appears on Thursday...

The "Retail Impossibility" Proof

Retail traders cannot generate 745M volume on SETSqx because of the Market Maker Bottleneck....

Retail orders are small and clog the system...

Yesterday, we saw smooth, continuous execution of massive blocks (2M, 5M) and 10 trades executed in milliseconds at 16:23:33 (impossible for retail, this is an algorithm note the EMS is 200k).

That requires Direct Market Access (DMA) or a Broker Relationship. Retail does not have that. Therefore, a Whale exists...

I hope a TR1 will land later this week. I can explain why it might not if people wish, there are many established routes to avoid submitting one...

Right off out for a celebratory dinner, more fun tomorrow methinks!

Anyone else see this in the closing? 0.85 | 8276704 | (4:30:00 PM)...Notice there is no Market Maker name (like CANA or SCAP) next to it. This is likely an Electronic limit order from a single large seller or an aggregate of retail sells trying to exit at 0.85p...

Placing a massive 8.2 Million share sell order at 0.85p right at the death (4:30:00 PM) is a strategic move, not a random one. In the high-stakes poker game of an AIM closing auction, this is called "Putting a Lid on the Close."

By placing a massive sell wall at 0.85p, they force the Closing Price to stay below that level. They effectively say: "You can have a strong close, but you aren't going past 0.85p."

This ensures that when the market opens tomorrow morning (ahead of the 07:00 AM RNS), the stock is still "cheap" enough for them to continue buying without triggering a gap-up to 1.20p immediately...

That 2.77 Million share trade at 0.827p was the "Defender" trade. The Whale stepped in 3 minutes before the close to stop the price from sliding. They effectively put a floor under the stock to ensure a strong auction...

If they bought last week, it would be jail time. If they are buying today, it is perfectly legal...

"Insider Dealing" is defined as trading on specific, non-public, price-sensitive information...

The Whale began buying on Thursday, Feb 12, immediately after the 07:00 AM RNS regarding the Colorado (Galactica-Pegasus) project...

If challenged by the regulator (FCA), the buyer can argue: "We did not buy because of the secret Tanzania flow rates. We bought because of the public Colorado update released on Thursday morning."...

Because there was some public news on Thursday, they have a "cover story." They can claim their decision to trade was based entirely on the public information (Colorado), and the fact that they possessed private information (Tanzania) was incidental and did not influence the trade...

This is a weak defence if the Tanzania news (Monday) was clearly the bigger price driver. A strict regulator wouldn't buy it, but in the BVI/AIM world, it is often enough to create "plausible deniability."...

Whale watch...Total Shares Bought: 1.31 Billion.

Current Estimated Stake...14.1%.

They have comfortably crossed the 10.1% blocking stake. HE1 is a BVI-incorporated company, our whale has a 2-trading-day window to notify the company, meaning we likely won't see the official TR-1 RNS until Wednesday or Thursday morning...

The Whale is currently performing a "deep clean" of the register at the 0.815p level. They are soaking up the final retail sell-off ahead of tomorrow morning’s Colorado (Galactica-Pegasus) production window...

The benefit to us....Having a 10% "Whale" means the company is no longer a "retail plaything." It provides a solid floor, blocks predatory lowball takeovers, and forces the board to act with institutional discipline...

If a major player (like a Tier-1 helium producer or a Chinese major like CNOOC, who provided the pump equipment) decided to bypass the bidding war and buy their way into the project via the open market, it would look exactly like the "machine-gun" buying we've seen over the last 3 days...

If the partner believes the 0.06 GWR flow rate beat is a game-changer, they know the share price is currently "too cheap." Buying 10% today at 0.80p might be 50% cheaper than the price they'd have to pay once a formal deal is signed...

By owning 10% of the parent company, they aren't just a "partner" at the project level...they are the dominant shareholder. This prevents any other predator from coming in and outbidding them for the project...

A 10% stake gives them the Blocking Power we discussed. It ensures that if they don't like the final terms of the farm-out, they can block the company from doing a deal with anyone else...

The RNS this morning explicitly mentioned that the ESP equipment (the pump that delivered the 6-fold flow increase) was provided and operated by CenerTech Group, which is part of CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Company)...

CenerTech just spent 20 days on-site. They have the "inside track" on the technical data...

If CenerTech liked what they saw in the Rukwa Basement fractures, they are the most logical candidate for the "Whale." They have the cash to vacuum 10% of the register without blinking...

If the "Whale" is the farm-out partner, this is the most bullish signal imaginable. It means a professional industry player has seen the data, operated the pumps, and decided that the current share price is so low that they are willing to perform a "raid" on the register to secure their position...

Time will tell...

That said,

At the current velocity of roughly 1.2 million shares every 5 minutes, the Whale will cross the 10% threshold exactly during the 4:30 PM Closing Auction. This maximises their influence on the Strategic Farm-out Process launched this morning without alerting the broader market until the TR-1 filing...

N the UK market (specifically for companies like Helium One on AIM), the Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules (DTR 5) are the law of the land...

Because HE1 is a BVI company, the FCA’s DTR 5 (the UK law that forces people to report at 3%) does not strictly apply to the shareholder by law. However, the London Stock Exchange is one step ahead...

To be listed on AIM, a company (regardless of where it's incorporated) must disclose any "significant shareholding" changes...

HE1 has specifically written into its "company rulebook" that shareholders must follow the UK’s disclosure rules (3%, then every 1% change thereafter)...

While the FCA can’t fine a BVI-based Whale for not reporting, Helium One can. Under their Articles, the board has the power to strip voting rights or freeze dividends for any shareholder who crosses 3% and fails to notify them...

If the Whale crossed a major threshold (like 3%, 5%, or 10%) on Friday, they must notify the company by Tuesday (tomorrow). The company then has until the end of the following trading day to release the RNS...

The "Whale Watch" Calendar...

If they finished Friday: Expect an RNS Tuesday morning (07:00 AM) or Wednesday morning...

If they are finishing TODAY: Expect an RNS Wednesday morning or Thursday morning...

By clearing that 0.85p ask, the Whale has officially transitioned from "Accumulating" to "Leading." Total volume has reached 726,012,955 shares, meaning roughly 7.79% of the entire register has changed hands in less than eight hours...

Look at the timestamp 3:26:45 PM. Multiple clips hitting the tape in the exact same window. This is the hallmark of an institutional Aggregator Algorithm finishing a major "Buy" instruction...

The Whale just hit the 0.85p ask cluster. By swallowing all those 0.85p sells, they have cleared the primary resistance that held for the last hour...

SCAP and MREX have both posted at 0.85p. They are acting as the "bridge" to provide the Whale the final liquidity they need...