Member Info for MCNol

The Whale has successfully "filled the gap" back to Friday's close (0.78p). They have cleaned out the register of almost all midday sellers...

Because the 0.90p Wall is now so weak (only 2 MMs left), once the Whale decides to "lift" their buying to the 0.85p ask, the price could snap back to 1.00p extremely quickly. They are simply waiting for the lunch break to end to ensure maximum "FOMO" impact...

The volume is now reaching 660 Million shares, representing a turnover of 7.05% of the company register in just under six hours....

Which is exactly what the Whale is doing...

...and for those who are feeling it, please remember that once the Whale has bought their 7%, 10% or higher stake, they want the price to go up immediately so their position is "in the money."

The Dam: By preventing a slide, they keep the price pressed right up

Just as an explanation of why the Whale is holding the price here at present.

If the price stays steady as at of now, retail traders who bought at 1.00p this morning get bored or frustrated and sell to "break even" or take a small loss...

If the price drops too much, those same traders might "panic-hold" or "average down," meaning the shares stay locked in retail accounts. The Whale wants those shares now. By holding the price steady, they provide a "comfortable exit" for sellers, allowing the Whale to hoover up the volume...which is exactly what we are seeing in the Lunch Lul...

Thats why us minnows need to follow the Whales, as soon as you spot one latch on for the ride...

@BigBeasty I have dumbed it down for you as it is clear you do not understand the market terminology...

When we say a "Whale is soaking up the register," it means the big whale is sitting at the bottom of the pool with its mouth open, catching every little piece of food (shares) that the goldfish are dropping. They are doing this so that eventually, they own a huge part of the pool....

Smaller fish (retail investors) often try to swim right behind the whale. They think, "If the whale is swimming that way, there must be something yummy over there!"

I hope this helps your understanding...

We are currently in the typical midday lull. If the volume stays high (currently 627M) but the price doesn't break 0.90p by 2:00 PM, short-term traders may take profits, causing a minor dip before the Whale resumes buying into the 4:30 PM auction...

If an RNS (Price Movement Statement) or a REACH (CEO Interview/Presentation) drops before 3:30 PM, the dynamic shifts from accumulation to a "Squeeze."

The current velocity is categorised as "Absorptive Accumulation." Unlike the 08:00 AM open, where velocity was high and price was volatile (spiking to 1.05p), the current velocity is high while the price is relatively stable at 0.84p. This suggests a "Whale" is using the high turnover to build a massive position without "slipping" the price too far upward—effectively "soaking" every share that hits the bid...

They would use the term 'Institutional Convergence.'

An RNS could be imminent because confidentiality can no longer be guaranteed. When 6% of a company’s shares move in three hours, the regulator assumes that "Inside Information" has leaked....

Unlike a takeover (where you get a fixed cash price), a Joint Venture announcement typically leads to a re-rating. If a major partner (like a Tier-1 energy firm) is the Whale, the "JV Price" isn't a payout—it's the market re-valuing your shares from 0.85p to potentially 1.50p - 2.00p based on the new project's NPV....

We are currently at 5.9% turnover. If we hit 10% (1 Billion shares) without an RNS, the London Stock Exchange Group surveillance team will likely contact the company's broker to ask if they are "aware of any reason for the price movement." This often triggers a "The Board notes the recent rise in share price..." announcement....

Given the volume is nearly 60x the daily average, maybe the "cat is out of the bag." The market is pricing in imminent news?

f the Whale is building a stake to propose a JV, the company might not even know who the buyer is yet.

The Whale has two days to disclose their 5% breach. They might wait until they hit 10% before approaching the board...

In many UK success stories, the buying happens first (the "Stake build"), and the JV announcement follows 2–3 days later once the TR-1 (major holding) and the strategic news can be released together...

in short, something is going on....

Since the Whale crossed the 5% threshold their legal and strategic standing has fundamentally changed...

At 5%, this entity can now formally requisition a general meeting or require the company to circulate statements to other shareholders. This is the hallmark of "Active Stewardship" or the first phase of a Hostile Takeover...

The clock is ticking on the TR-1 notification. The fact that they are still buying share clips at 0.83p suggests they are likely pushing for a 10% stake (the threshold for blocking special resolutions)...

If this Whale is a "Trade Buyer" (a competitor), hitting 5% often signals the start of a "Stake building" exercise. By law, if they reach 30%, they must launch a mandatory cash bid for the whole company...

At 5%, they can't block a special resolution (which requires 25%), but they can now demand a shareholder list and start "wall-crossing" other institutions to form a voting bloc...

Estimated Position: ~416 Million shares (approx. 5.6%)...

The Macro Volume Stats

Total Daily Volume: 573,948,573 shares...

Register Turnover: Approximately 5.74% of the entire company has changed hands in 155 minutes...

Estimated 412 Million shares (roughly 71% of all today's volume) is attributed to a single institutional buyer...

Current Pace: ~2.1 Million shares per minute...

At 5.64% of the register, the original liquidity from the morning "Waterfall" has been entirely recycled. Every share being sold now is likely coming from institutional desks, not retail....

To understand the Whale's current profit/loss standing for the session, we calculate the average cost of the accumulation during the "Waterfall" and the recovery:

High end Soak, 100M shares at avg 0.98p...

The Waterfall Soak...150M shares at avg 0.78p...

The Current Recovery...136M shares at avg 0.82p

Estimated Session VWAP: ~0.8465p...(for those who want to compare)

With the last trade at 0.8484p, the Whale is now officially in the green for the entire day’s accumulation... They have successfully used the 0.70p dip to "fix" their cost basis. They are now playing with "house money" as they assault the 0.86p open....

N the ecosystem of the financial markets, a "Whale" is an individual or institutional entity with enough capital to move the price of an asset single-handedly. They aren't just "big traders" they are the gravity around which the rest of the market orbits...

A Whale cannot simply "buy" 370 million shares at once without the price verticalising to 5.00p. Instead, they use passive accumulation—waiting for Market Makers to "flush" the price (like the drop to 0.70p we just saw) so they can soak up massive volume without moving the "Ask" too far against themselves....

The Market Makers have formed a Unified Front. Seven major brokers (CANA, PEEL, SING, WINS, JBER, SCAP, MREX) are now all bidding the same. They have effectively "locked" the spread to 10 points to manage the Whale's final 5% push....

SCAP jumped ahead of the pack to bid top the bid. This is a "Front-Running" move. MMs only do this when they believe the next leg up is imminent and they want to capture any retail sells before the price gaps...

Look at SCAP again—they moved their ask up to0. They have effectively "abandoned the field" between 0.82p and 0.90p....