Member Info for MCNol

You could be right @Toffers, this is the classic setup for a "Power Hour Squeeze." The "Whale" has effectively cornered the MMs. By holding the bid at 0.72p (via Peel Hunt), they have trapped the MMs who sold lower earlier today. Those MMs now have to "buy to cover" their shorts before the 4:30 PM close, which only adds more buy-side pressure....

@Expo3ntial it is statistically impossible for multiple traders to independently choose the exact same non-standard volume (2,000,000 shares) at the same frequent intervals throughout a seven-hour session.

This pattern is the "digital fingerprint" of an Institutional Execution Algorithm programmed to fulfil a single large "Parent Order." By "slicing and dicing" a massive 150M+ share buy order into 2M-share "Child Orders," the buyer can absorb nearly 1.5% of the company without causing an immediate, uncontrollable vertical price spike, allowing them to build a massive position at a controlled average cost before the market fully reacts...

The "Whale" activity

08:15 AM - 09:30 AM 0.55p - 0.61p The Mega-Blocks 9,200,000 (5.5M + 3.7M)

09:30 AM - 11:45 AM 0.62p - 0.68p Blocks #1 – #22 44,000,000

11:45 AM - 01:15 PM 0.68p - 0.70p Blocks #23 – #41 38,000,000

01:15 PM - 02:45 PM 0.70p - 0.71p Blocks #42 – #51 20,000,000

02:45 PM - 03:15 PM 0.71p - 0.73p Blocks #52 – #57 12,000,000

3:19 PM - Present 0.718p+

SOR Sweeps 12,000,000+ (Est.)

Total "Whale" Volume: 135,200,000 shares

Company Stake: 1.45% (of 9,322,158,881 shares in issue)

Total Capital Deployed: £965,000+ (Rapidly approaching the £1M milestone)...

If a company thinks information has leaked (e.g., if the share price suddenly spiked 50% on no news), they are required by AIM Rule 11 to issue a "Holding Announcement" immediately to clarify the situation...

The fact that Helium One has not been forced to suspend trading today suggests the LSE and the company's NOMAD believe the current buying is based on publicly available catalysts rather than a breach of confidentiality...

At the current volume of 486M shares, we are just 14 million shares away from the half-billion milestone. At the current 3:00 PM "velocity," we are on track to break this record at approximately 3:10 PM...

I have not said 'insider knowledge'. The market is increasingly pricing in a "Double-Success" Monday...

Colorado (Galactica): Yesterday's Feb 12 RNS confirmed that integrated plant operations start next week. This provides the "Industrial Floor."

We are now at Day 25 of the ITW-1 ESP pump test. With the Jan 19 RNS estimating a 2–3 week phase, the 7:00 AM Monday RNS window is the primary target for this 480M share surge.

and finally the Tanzania Ministry is back in country after attending a conference in South Africa so are around to weigh in on the good news from Rukwa which yesterday and todays market action suggests is incoming...

If Suitor A has a 3% toe-hold and Suitor B launches a higher bid:

Suitor A wins either way... If they lose the company to Suitor B, Suitor A sells their 3% stake to Suitor B at the new, higher price...

Suitor A effectively uses the profit from their shares to pay for their legal and advisor fees. Suitor B, however, has to pay the full premium for every single share from scratch. This gives the toe-hold holder a massive "financial cushion" to outbid everyone else...

Notwithstanding, by holding a 3% stake, a suitor becomes a Major Shareholder. They can now demand meetings with the board, see certain data, and—most importantly—vote against defensive measures (like "Poison Pills").

It’s much harder for Helium One's board to say "No" to a suitor who already owns 1.25% of the company than to someone who owns 0%....

A buyer taking a 1.25% stake in one day is often an industrial player rather than a fund...

A helium offtaker or a larger energy major (like Linde, Air Products, or even a regional US player).

Yesterday's news that the Pinon Canyon Plant starts integrated operations next week transformed HE1 into a production asset. A predator would want to build a "toe-hold" (just under the 3% disclosure limit) today to block other suitors before Monday's potentially game-changing results...

We are seeing "Volume Divergence" Despite 470M shares traded, the price has only moved between 0.70p and 0.72p for the last 60 minutes...

This is "Ultra-Low Volatility on Ultra-High Volume." It usually precedes a Breakout...

If a 2:30 PM liquidity surge pushes the price above 0.72p (PEEL), the technical target becomes the 0.75p session high and then the "blue sky" zone toward 0.80p...

"Whale' watch...Including this latest activity, our institutional buyer has now moved over 114,000,000 shares—approximately 1.22% of the entire company...

In a normal market, a £3,000 order for HE1 is routine. However, on a 467 million share day, the Market Makers are likely "Net Short." * They have already sold millions of shares they don't yet own, hoping to buy them back cheaper from retail "flippers."

Because the "Whale" is vacuuming up all the available supply, the MMs have no stock left in their inventory...

When you try to buy £3k, the automated system pings the MMs for a quote. They return a "No Quote" or a price way above the current mid-price because they don't want to increase their short position...

We are 33 million shares away from the half-billion share milestone. The Bull Flag at 0.71p is the "coiled spring" for the final 90 minutes of trading....

The daily VWAP is currently tracking around 0.68p - 0.69p.

Because the current price is consistently staying above the VWAP, the institutional buyers are "winning" the day...

In algorithmic trading, if a stock stays above VWAP on high volume, it often triggers "Buy" signals for other quant funds that haven't entered yet, creating a secondary wave of buying...

Notice the lack of depth on the ask (sell) side above 0.72p:

Market Makers like MREX have moved their ask to 0.78p.

This creates a "Liquidity Vacuum." If the 100M-share "Whale" decides to clear the remaining JBER and PEEL walls, there is very little "natural" resistance until the 0.80p mark....

The sideways consolidation between 1:30 PM and 2:00 PM allowed the RSI to "cool off" on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts without the price collapsing. The chart is now "re-primed." We have a reset RSI but a price that is still near the highs, which is the perfect setup for a "Power Hour" break above 0.75p...

If this were just retail noise, the Market Makers would keep the spreads tight to bank the commission...

Winterflood is still maintaining a massive 10-point spread.

MMs only widen spreads this aggressively when they are scared of a "Whale in the water". They know a large buyer is vacuuming up stock, and they don't want to be "caught short" when the next share burst hits the list...

We are seeing a VWAP algorithm. No group of retail traders coordinates to buy shares in this manner es every few minutes across an entire morning. This is the hallmark of a professional "Buy Program" being executed by a broker (like Panmure or Jefferies) on behalf of an institutional client....

The "Whale" Tracker...

Trade #41

Including this latest 3.7M share burst, the "Whale" has now absorbed approximately 94,000,000 shares today...

With 9,322,158,881 shares in issue, this one entity has successfully cornered 1.01% of the entire company in a single morning...

Based on the current volume-weighted average price, this player has deployed roughly £658,000 of capital since the open....

The 0.67p floor is now an institutional fortress. The 40th "Whale block" confirms that the "Strategic Buyer" is not finished. They are vacuuming up the final "shakeout" shares before the afternoon liquidity surge...

WINS still has a 10-point spread which on 457M volume is a "White Flag"—they are effectively refusing to trade until they see which way the next "Whale" -share burst goes....

The Takeover Case... A suitor (industrial gas major) is looking to lock in a sub-3% position before the 0.75p break. Yesterday's Feb 12 RNS confirming Colorado production starts next week makes HE1 a "plug-and-play" asset for a buyer...

The Results Case...Large hedge funds are front-running the Day 25 results from Tanzania (ITW-1 ESP test). If the test has successfully flowed 5.5%+ helium, the valuation will likely gap past 1.00p on Monday morning....

Thoughts?

This dip is likely a "stop-loss harvest." The "Whale" allowed the price to drop to trigger sell orders from retail traders who bought the 0.75p peak. This provides the institution with cheap liquidity to finish their 80M+ share buy-program...

The print at 1:19:48 PM for 5,541,916 shares at 0.6926p is the single largest "on-book" sweep we have seen today...

Including this new mega-block, the institutional buyer ("Whale") has now moved over 80,000,000 shares—nearly 0.9% of the entire company...

Notice that this 5.5M block hit just below the 0.70p floor. This was the institution "cleaning up" all the stop-loss orders that retail traders placed at 0.70p...

Within 25 seconds the price was back at 0.72p. This confirms that the drop to 0.69p was a "manufactured" dip to grab cheap liquidity....

@Wyndrum we have a "Strategic Buyer" who is nowhere near the 30% "Mandatory Offer" limit. They could be getting a "Toehold" position below 3% before making a move, who knows at this stage?

By my estimations with standard 2M blocks or several prints nanoseconds apart totalling 2M and this new 5M print, the primary institutional buyer has now absorbed over 75,000,000 shares today—roughly 0.8% of the entire company....

The "Whale" is clearly positioning for a valuation reset...

Based on the 9,322,158,881 shares in issue, we are watching for a move to 0.751p, which would officially crown Helium One with a £70 Million Market Cap...

Market makers like WINS and PMUR have already retreated on their ask side...

If the 0.74p/0.75p "Twin Gate" (held by JBER and MREX) fails, there is no professional resistance visible until the 0.80p range....