RE: Anyone else…..25 Mar 2023 17:17
Certainly a lot of doom and gloom on here and I'll not be spending all of my weekend getting caught up amongst it, but all I will say is that there WILL be a clear path forged by the company to improve shareholder value here very soon.
They could have raised just $3-$4M to tie them over for a while but this would have raised the prospect of them having to come back again for yet another raise before boosting production enough to make them self sustainable.
My view is that this money raised is enough to satisfy a JV partner that they have sufficient liquidity, have the ability to upgrade the gas gathering system, boost production to over 5k bopd for starters, and prove up CC.
With the liquidity position of the company no longer in any doubt, I think this will quickly satisfy the due diligence carried out by our large interested partner to come aboard.
I also look forward to the imminent NED appointment and the imminent production update. At the flaring hearing they confirmed that an "over trebling of production is possible if we get this right".
TW and his crew have had a field day shorting copl, he has history through contacts of finding out about placings and other materially sensitive info before the general market does and doesn't even try to hide it. You only have to look at his tweets and articles with his disciples spreading fear and doom, while making a killing at the same time. Shorting imo should be illegal imo but that's the murky world of the mechanics of trading whether we like it or not.
So worst case is that between now and 2028 copl end up with something approaching 1Bn shares, BUT that is assuming that the bondholders convert every single bond and assuming the company don't elect to buy any of the bonds back.
But just look at the SP before the trading update. This was almost 17p having been at 35p only 12 months before that.
The market is expecting there to be 3 times the number of shares in issue eventually but that doesn't mean this will end up being the case.
Even if it did and we price a total of 1Bn shares in, then 3x 5.25p is only 15.75p which is lower than what we were trading at prior.
So the market has effectively priced ALL potential dilution in. What it hasn't priced in AT ALL is material production upgrades prior to gas gathering upgrade which could be up to 3k bopd or as much as 10k bopd with the upgrade considering this field has an INCLINE curve not decline and will be for a considerable number of years. It also hasn't priced in the effect that new bod appointments may have and indeed the main reason why many stay invested which is the potential imminent JV with a large recognised US oil company. It will obviously depend who the partner turns out to be and the terms of that JV as to the effect on the SP but, if it turned out to be Exxon as many believe for obvious reasons, then we will see this back to 15 - 20p easy.
At this point the bondholders AND shareholders will all be happy and TW