Member Info for mbarnholdt

I guess my question now is:

1) Given the private placement

2) Given the retail placement solicitation

3) Assuming both are successful

4) Assuming Cascadura 5 comes on line at a decent rate

5) Assuming Cascadura 4 produces something

Do we have a self-funded, sustaining drilling/capital program going forward? Can we repay debt without further calamity? Can we avoid, going hat in hand, to the market for more money every time we need to do drill a well, install a compressor, etc? I'd appreciate all opinions on this. I have also thought in the past that:

1) We need a new CEO

2) We need a CFO that is well known and connected into the financial markets

3) WE need a drilling manager who is either a master at drilling gas/condensate wells or has substantial experience drilling in Herrera or Herrera like geology.

I am a long term holder who is very far underwater right now (acq at $1.05 U.S.). I debate daily whether to cut and run and try to find something else, or hold out in hope of getting something back at some point. I'd appreciate thoughts of all on any of the foregoing.

I have always thought we should place someone on the board from the group, if just to encourage that information be more readily shared with shareholders than these periods of silence. Don't know the exchange rules, so may be speaking out of my rear end.

I did start playing Electronic Arts NHL during covid, but I don't think I'm a real gamer. Just a poseur gamer....

I thought was very well done (the set of questions), extraordinarily thorough. Well done MJ and all who contributed. I appreciate the lead on discord (aptly named?), thank so much. Just out of curiosity, if you are at liberty to discuss, how many shares do you think the group represents? Apologies if I missed earlier on.

Mj, is there a link you can share? I'd appreciate it. Not familiar with discord.

Mike

There is so much to like about this little company, but its been hard sledding for awhile. I am reminded of a company I held earlier in this century, Arrakis Energy. There, had lots of oil (but in Sudan...) and needed a fairly long oil pipeline (eventually did get built), but my recollection was that most of the long term holders like myself got rear ends torched, and Petronas and the Chinese ended up the winners. Here we are in Trinidad, one very short pl to be completed. One EIA that nobody seems to have a clue what is going on (or just me) standing in way of the promised land. I don't know who advises PB on shareholder relations, but I think they need some help and/or new ideas. Need way more transparency than we have had lately, good or bad. The uncertainty is killing the SP. My humble opinion, and you know what opinions are like....everybody has one....have always wondered if these guys were great explorers, but falling way short on turning exploration into cash. I saw a bit of that at Shell. I'm just sad on a Saturday afternoon, probably best to ignore me. I probably won't be happy until college football comes back and Iowa has its opening game of the season in early September.

Wholeheartedly agree Mr. Minister. Now its time to back up talk with action.

Poor wording on my part Scott. Don't see much point in Kraken, Steelhead etc when fluids can't be moved for awhile. I don't like idle rig either, hence question on obligation. Believe it is 120 days and we owe 4 development wells this year; my thought was four legacy + the ST, leading to oil volumes, all which could be immediately monetized. A Guyana sized kraken well would really juice the shares, but not sure POS on that or mean success volume. Save the cash for something that produces immediate return. I think PB risks a crucifixion if cash runs down and he has to go back to market for capital with the share price in the tank for the moment. On the lack of urgency in moving the gas on Trinidad, I have been scratching my head for a long time now.....

Don't see much point of further exploration drilling this year, unless some cheap oil wells to keep drilling obligation. Not sure status of this. Need to see Coho and Cascadura first I would say. Maybe move forward on Royston sidetrack/new EWT. Put money that can realize return quickly while oil is still high. Won't stay there forever, and the worm will turn at some point.

Not yet. But wondering when the end of the tailspin is in sight. I don't see anything that will stop the drain right now. Someone please tell me i am overreacting.

Im in with the group.

Yes, and Germany has already idled or is in process of idling nuclear plants. They bet on Russian gas heavily, and now its going to bite them back unfortunately.

Agree my friend. There is a boatload of money to be made in LNG. Hope T&T doesn't miss said boat.

Babies, not sure about that. But a lot of pretty knowledgeable people that are dissatisfied with the pace, Coho being the poster child, rightly or wrongly.

I am with you, I don't think the company has intended to deceive. When I corresponded with Mr. Baay some months back, he indicated that we did not appreciate how difficult its been to operate during Covid, nor how difficult Shell has been in slowing down Coho. Having had worked for Shell as an employee and contractor for 35 years+, I can appreciate how annoying the sometimes glacial process of getting decisions made there is. I think the jury is still out on Cascadura. We have separation facilities seemingly enroute for installation, and processing the EIA. Having never been to Trinidad, I cannot probably appreciate the culture, and maybe life is taken at a slower pace than here in the states, and perhaps that is not such a bad thing. I like others vent from time to time, because we see above average potential, starting with Coho some years ago and then Cascadura and wish that for once Touchstone would catch a few breaks and something would proceed with the urgency that I think is warranted.

I think the answer is, depends on a couple of things:
1) What does Shell reckon the prospectivity of the Ortoire Block is. If it is somewhere in the 9 TCF range that has been kicked around in the past, and they think that there might be something to it, I would say yes. Atlantic LNG is short of gas, and has been for awhile. Shell makes good money on LNG cargos, and depending on if the Russians use the "gazprom weapon" Europe could be short gas in the next few years. 60 mmcf/d from Cascadura doesn't get Shell's blood up, but if they think there is potential for 500 mmcf/d + out of the whole block, onshore, then it gets more interesting. If they can extend the Guyana oil play into Onshore Trinidad (long shot I think), then it becomes more interesting. Remember, Shell bailed out of Guyana before XOM and others hit the long term jackpot there. I would if it were to happen, it would be a corporate sale (not asset or block sale) that TXP would insist upon. Shell would turn around and sell the small oil blocks to other operators to recoup a bit of cash, and then I would think try to get out from under the gas contract, so they can direct the gas where its needed.
2) I think the green thing is overdone. They moved HQ to London recently, and out of the NL where the problem is. And Gas/LNG is getting greener in the Shell world.
3) Any move by Shell will likely be a long time coming and thought out. They definitely need gas locally, or they wouldn't have tried to pipe in associated gas from Venezuela, which was pardon the pun, a pipe dream in the first place IMHO.

Hard to say where it would go, might be some other Atlantic partners who might take a look at, but less likely.

I'm with you Scott, not getting this at all. Faster gas to market, taking advantage of really good refining margins which may hang around for awhile but not forever, putting people back to work at the methanol plant, new refinery jobs perhaps, filling holes at Atlantic LNG etc....greater tax revenues, royalty payments, etc. Seems like would be good coming out of (hopefully) COVID. Obviously the politicians have some far-seeing wisdom that I am sadly lacking...

I am an older fellow like Scott, and wondered if I'd live to see Coho producing. Now I am living on hoping to see Iowa win the NCAA Football Championship before I go, and maybe Cascadura online.

Yep, I wish that PB would be a little more open with what is going on. Clearly they are outmanned and outgunned on the drilling & development side and need some talent here. The stuff they have discovered thus far should be able to generate a nice cash flow, and self-fund modest drilling, development, and exploration for some time to come, if a sense of urgency is applied to it. Some of the managers and directors options I think were granted around 2$ a share, so there should be sufficient management motivation to get things moving in the right direction. I suppose its easy to sit here on the sidelines, and imagine how we'd do things differently if we were the big dogs here.

I still have hopes that this company is like Atlantic Richfield in 1967, 6 months before Prudhoe Bay State 1. Maybe if Kraken proves the Cretaceous trend concept in Trinidad, this happens. Given my track record, for those who remember it, its another Arakkis Energy. Good prospects, poor execution, insufficient capital and management skill to capitalize on.
Potential huge upside frittered away.

I'd be curious to see how this turns out as well. Refresh my memory, is this the one that people were worked up about a high water cut? I looked back at some of the announcements, but didn't see anything obvious but neither did I look that hard. High WC not necessarily bad, have seen uglier wells than this (miss lime) produce boatloads of water in the wells, and still do ok. Strong aquifer/water drive might make the 17% conservative as far as ultimate RF, but will be more costly to handle the water volumes. Can be managed if you work your water handling strategy up front and not be surprised later on. I'd really be curious to see some of GLJ's work papers, would probably be very instructive/informative from an RE standpoint to see what they are thinking. On the other hand, have also seen projects where not thinking about water handling and disposal can really bite you later on.

Yep, I noticed that as well. Based on the what I looked at some years back, I noticed Shell also had a lot of drilling/completion problems working this area. Think they need someone who is really skilled at D and C in tough areas and problem wells. That stuck pipe at Royston has negated what could have been a very lucrative extended well test at current prices if the lower sand was as good as advertised. I have often wondered to myself if this company has too much exploration talent, and not enough in drilling/development. That said, I am a fan of XM.