Member Info for mbarnholdt

If I recall, the twin well to Royston was drilled, logged, but never tested in 1965 or thereabouts. This was before the era of liquefied natural gas and development of the larger world gas market, so back then it would have been a situation of "stranded gas" I would think, with probably not a whole lot of demand on the island either.

This is helpful information Scott. Thanks for the update and forgive the impatience of my tone.

yep, that is what frustrates me. this shouldn't be that difficult.......has the delay ever been adequately explained? What do we need do to make it happen? I remain a believer, but this erosion of time is really trying my patience......

This is starting to remind me of a share i held many years ago, Arrakis Energy. Good reserves but couldn't get to market because needed 250 mile pl. In this case, the pl is much shorter......

I agree totally. Would staunch the bleeding we have had on the price lately. Has the delay there every been adequately explained? Seems like that pipe has been sitting there quite a while.

I am hopeful that the new minister will bring a sense of urgency to getting more gas to market. Hopeful.......

It would be nice at the next session to see if we can pin PB more down on timeline for Coho/Cascadura developments. Help us understand what the obstacles are (EIA, Shell, NGC?) what can we realistically expect. If we could get a firm time schedule for these developments that is realistic and can be met, even though they might not be as fast as we wish, I think would do wonders for the share price. The market is looking for execution and delivery now.

I'm still a big fan, but its all about delivering the goods now.

Well done. I was going to suggest a collaborative effort to have some pointed questions asked at the next session, and I think you have covered all the bases here.

A good point, I had also wondered about that. I would think Shell would want to take the gas to Atlantic. I didn't work there when I was with Shell, but I was told that LNG cargoes are quite good moneymakers for Shell.

The odd thing with Shell, is that they were in the Guyana blocks at first, and exited before the big discoveries hit as I recall.

Yes, i think there are longer term supply issues for Shell wrt Atlantic LNG. I had heard awhile back that they were looking at trying to pipe in associated gas from Venezuela to feed into Atlantic. I think trying to make a deal with Venezuela will be problematic at best. I expect given what TXP has done onshore nearby, they will be taking a look at their data to see if something similar of a turbidite play can be had onshore?

I could see that. They may have used a heavier drilling fluid if they were expecting to have well control issues which they may have expected from the Casacadura wells. May have encroached into the formation. Forgive my tone in my earlier notes, i still have a significant position in TXP and will continue to do so, just a bit of venting about Coho being promised for so long and often.

Second hard question: Its pretty clear the market has taken a view that nothing economic will result from Chinook. Does PB wish to comment on this?

I won't attend, but if someone could give a report out later, it would be greatly appreciated. Suggest someone put hard question to PB about setting a schedule and managing expectations (from a s/h standpoint).

I'd sure like to see Coho online. Might give a boost in confidence about TXP, and we sure seem to need it lately.

Anyone hear anything about Coho start up? We could sure use some kind of positive news....

Very true. Have always respected Livermore, despite how it ended for him.

Ah, this is why I like this board-its for the thinking investor. Well done piece of work. I used to do a lot of this sort of modeling for Shell, so it will give me something to play with. I would suggest perhaps a decline rate of 5-7%, I think this is the sort of thing I used to see used on gas wells. I think perhaps also since it seems to be overpressured, that you might be able to maintain peak rate for a somewhat longer period. Some level of operating and g&a costs should be factored in, but I haven't looked that closely at to do a good think on. On cost of capital, I think I have seen used in the industry around 7% for development costs, plus 2% inflation, unless the local inflation rate is different. 15% was used more in exploration projects. Touchstone is fairly small, so perhaps a weighted average cost of capital can be used, but I am not sure if I remember how to calculate it. A risk discount is probably also appropriate as one gentleman suggested, perhaps expressed as a probability of success until on production. Later on, as the wells have produced more, you may need to introduce periodic workovers for scale removal, clean out, but that would be added as you learn more about the wells' production characteristics. Just some of my initial thoughts, let me look at closer in next few days.

Not sure if I am going to make it or not; can someone take some good notes to share later on? Appreciate it, Mike.