RE: Tullow Oil (TLW)26 Nov 2025 09:48
@Ripley I’ve traded everything - otherwise I’d lose sleep. I keep free shares when I make a decent return, or simply liquidate and wait for a retrace and rinse and repeat. I was here about 5/6 years ago when this went to sub 9p and loaded up and exited in the mid to late 30’s……only to see it go to 65p. I then more recently bought around 20p and then loaded up again around the 12/13p mark and then we had the story of an expression of interest in the business and I sold everything at 21/22 I think. Then I used profits to re buy at 16p then have traded the 10-12p mark and taken the cash. Obviously this week at 5p saw this as an excellent opportunity and yesterday at sub 4p it looked way overcooked. What makes this situation unique in my view is that with 4 billion debt and with Uganda and Kenyan assents the creditors were happy to refinance at higher rates back in 2020 and the hedges in place then with arguably higher production was around $37. Tullow navigated Covid sold the family silver in Uganda for 575m Kenya for a total of 120m and impacted production by selling Cote Ivory for what 100m also, but that debt in 5 years has worked it’s way down to $1B net (I’m knocking off $200m for the sum that Ghana currently owe the business). The oil landscape is far different to 2020 and even the pessimistic outlook is $58-62 a barrel and some have it at $68-72. We have a production well that will come online by year end and 3 production wells slated for next year. The Debt as it stands needs to be refinanced by May 2026 and if an agreement can’t be made then a roll over and standstill agreement will be in place. I think Ian Perks and Co know they need to boost production from TEN and Jubilee and they will focus on that the rate of production is acutely impacting renegotiations. The 50m saving in overheads over the next 3 years will benefit the bottoming line and the silver lining if there was one is the court case for $257m with the allegedly faulty pipes. I didn’t even know about that until yesterday and JMAX’s comments. I think if there was a settlement at $80m on the table they would accept that. Oh and the cherry on the top, if there is such a thing is production royalties from Total’s production in Uganda that commences imminently and that will bring in ).75c - $1.5 a barrell if the oil price is above a certain level - I think its 72-73 dollars but with 100k production that will be a nice passive income that brings in $25-40m a year.
Things aren’t rosy but I do see value here at these levels