RE: Matt25 Jan 2017 13:49
Hi Dave - Tricky one to be sure. Firstly, no-one really knows what the effect of FCA intervention will be on revenues for sure, but my feeling is that a 20% reduction is at the pessimistic (but still reasonable) end. Secondly, 10% revenue fall not necessarily a 10% eps fall. I think 'very positive' would be overstating my view. I have taken what I would consider to be a 'half' position relative to my normal average holding size reflecting a positive view, but also a recognition of the risks. My view is predicated on:
- stock price halved
- IG already best-in-class compliance wise in the industry, so may ultimately benefit from changes
- Underlying demand still strong, so may get more limited fall in sales than expected
- cash flow generation very strong, so divvy relatively safe
- did I mention that the stock had halved.....?
I have also used the situation to initiate a small holding in CMC Markets - arguably the best system/customer experience, single digit PE, and likely to be a takeover candidate if price stays where it is for too much longer.
Hope that helps, and echo Dave in saying sorry for off-topic chat.