Member Info for mattlilly

Solgold/Cascabel has now been substantually derisked...

Although there are minor permits and land purchases, together with regulatory hurdles to negotiate along the way, nothing, including money, can stop SOLG reaching the point where the first sod is cut to build the mine, starting with the declines.

Of course there is the remaining $900m to find to take it to first production, but I repeat. Solgold will not do that.

That does not stop them putting the finance in place which I believe will be either or both a smelter deal and.or non dilutive 'market' finance, e.g. banks but the $750 million means there are no finance worries...ever...and together with the Exploitation Contract, the interest in Cascabel/Solgold has exploded exponentially.

In a matter if a week or so up to last week, they had 35 analysts/institutions wanting meetings and there is growing interest from HNW Ecuadorians.

For all these parties, in the absence of any further equity issue (there simply is no need) they must simply acquire shares through the market.

I believe there is a price point at which the 155 million 'own shares' could be sold, but there is no need to do so...ever...and therefore I do not see them sold at any less than 25/30p and only then to finance regional exploration.

If the shares were to go into just one buyer, that could feed a takeover frenzy...

So...the Autobots are far less busy and although liquidity is still poor, I believe we will see steady underlining buying, drawing on release by weak or nervous holders as the price rises...

So in the absence of an outright sale of Cascabel, or a bid(s) for SOLG, and dependent in part on outside factors, such as metals prices, geopolitical factirs, etc, I see steady price progress...

I agree that we seem to be moving up the right hand side of a reverse Head and Shoukders...temporarily restrained in a range between 11 and 12p but I see 15p as the next resistance area with targets of 20p and 25p beyond...

Nobody knows what might pop out of the woodwork at any moment, but several streaming/offtake majors have run the rule over SOLG together with prospective predators...and the 6 months of FNV DD will have saved them a lot of deskwork.

BHP and Newmont have approved the Financing and why wouldn't they, because there is a buyback clause which would enable them to fund Cascabel out of ordinary cashflow...

For me the ideal scenario is now to sell Cascabel, pay a Specual Dividend and use the balance to finance drilling on the other prospective Cascabels...

But that alone could trigger a bid(s) because a takeover bid would be a quicker simpler way to buy Cascabel than negoitating to buy it separately.

In summary I have never been more comfortable with our 3 million shares...the only worry being major market factors such as a 'Black Swan' event...but even that would only delay the inevitable.

Hahaha...obviously a joke following my recent posts..

15.56.51....16645 at 11.70...

DBW, BBG are exactly the posters that add real value here...together with informed and thoughtful posts.

We are immensely grateful.

If only we could get rid of the idiots that daily trash this Board.

We don't actually need 100 or more posts a day, but some people simply can't resist intellectual m*****bation...

I cant translate this so I don't know if this is it

https://www.anm.gov.co/sites/default/files/DocumentosAnm/AUTO_VSC_214_EXP_051-96M.pdf

Why hasn't there been a bid(s)

There may well have been informal approaches...it would be astonishing if there hadn't.

It was in the public domain that BHP wanted to buy the company years ago, when they settled for a stake at 45p...some people might wish SOLG had accepted a bid with what has happened since.

But actually the story gets better.

It is a racing cetainty that Jiangxi will have asked...and the Ecuador Mining Ministry publicised Mitsui's wish to buy Cascabel...

You don't get that many people on the data room and even signing NDAs without at least some wanting buy SOLG.

And I suspect they all know what the starting price is...

The FNV fundingon a copper gold equivalent basis validates a NPV of $3.2 billion and therefore 80p a share.

Now the Board are legally bound to announce any formal bid, but don't be surprised if they recommend against it at anything less than 80p...

But then it will be for the shareholders to decide.

But then again it is very possible that buyers want only Cascabel. Having thought it through that certainly appeals to me and I suspect the Company would agree to that at the right price because then they would have more than enough to pay a special dividend to shareholders and reinvest the rest in the other 89 projects where there mat well be other Cascabels

But not a JV...

I am certain in my mind of two things (among others)

That the Funding Package has woken up the market and potential bidders big time.

It makes Cascabel credible. I have no doubt that the remaining $900m is doable whether through copper offtake, streaming, smelter deals or even non equity debt.

Why?

Because SOLG now has enough money to take Cascabel all the way to starting the construction of the mind.

There is no missing permit now that can stop that.

Second that the chances of an opening bid have massively increased.

The Funding Package is no bar to that at all.

A prospective bidder can decide whether to take that package on or they could buy it out.

There is a buyback clause in the agreement but in any case there was no buyback in the Lundin package and Newmont were still able to buy it out.

So the company is committed to moving forward to turnkey status. There is no need for the $900 million now..they can wait until the perfect time to do a copper based deal when the price returns to above $5...and it will...

So that means any company seriously interested in buying SOLG or even Cascabel, has to move soon.

They don't even need to do any more due diligence (except the thorough stuff that comes after a successful bid) because the FNV deal was 6 months in the making and immensely detailed DD was carried out on every single aspect of the project.

So in conclusion the Company ideally wants to sell Cascabel but would consider a bid for SOLG if the price is high enough. In the meantime, it is entirely right to carry on doing everything necessary for building the mine.

So lets get to the root of why people are unhappy or frustrated on here, despite this now being one of the most compelling mining stories on the planet...

"I want my money back..."

Stock buying is too often based on greed or even stupidity...look at FOMO and watch what happens with NVIDIA etc...

People frequently buy shares because they got a tip...or they follow the money when a share price is roaring...like the guy on here with a break even of 45p from years ago.

Irrespective of my background I learnt a long time ago the following keys

Only invest in something you understand

Where possible specialise (my portfolio is all mining stocks mainly copper and gold)

Research research research...and take a fresh view every day...that may sometimes lead you to sell the lot or a substantial portion. I have twice sold when the SP doubled but also massively reduced when Ingo and Ayten left before building back to our 3 million

Don't panic...weigh the pros and cons and be prepared to take a loss to avoid a bigger one

So...plenty of people on here, including me, are waiting for what we regard as an inevitable takeover bid or bids.

And then its a long time coming...and the share price falls or doesn't progress fast enough..

And eventually people think out loud and blame the company, Scott or even fellow posters.

So the next lesson is always take responsibility for your own decisions...no regrets...you cannot change the past...

So when things go wrong ask yourself what you learned...what you could have done differently or better...

Finally, always have a target in mind and stick by it...it may change when circumstances change but when you reach a target, make a committed decision...stick, sell, sell half...etc.

And of course stop losses make that decision for you.

Read through all the stuffyou receive daily...distil out what is commonsense...listen to the little voice in the middle of the night and live by your decisions.

Blaming somebody else does you no good and you don't learn by it...

Also Nasdaq down 3% since lunchtime yesterday but BTC down 6%...

Watch US investors liquidate chunks of high tech stocks in the next few weeks with a knock on effect on side markets for the time being...

But then they will buy certainty...safe stocks that have been left behind and metals...

Junior Miners are the most left behind sector of all...just read Sprott etc...

GDX and GDXJ COPEX will give you a clue to the market influences on SOLG while the story on here gets better and better...

So...no ,atter how good the story, SOLG cannot be totally insulated from the wider markets...

Which actually draws attention to how resilient the SP has been...

We are in the throes of a big tech selloff...a black swan event as some have described it...

One thing I learned to my cost whenn the dot.com bubble burst in 2000 is that

"All ships rise and fall with the tide..."

Why is that?

Because when people get sucked in over their heads by FOMO they end up investing more than they can afford and even trading through ETFs etc where sooner or later the piper has to be paid.

Thats what caused the Wall Street Crash.

And even in more recent tamer selloffs, because investors don't want to, or often can't sell the stocks that are tanking...and especially where they have to pay margin calls just to stop losing all their investment, they look elsewhere in their portfolio for things that are more liquid.

So thats why other stocks are falling...

NASDAQ is down 12% in a fortnight...NVIDIA is down 16%...

BHP down 12%; RIO down 8%

And yes people even sell commodities because the derivatives are highly liquid...

So copper down 8% (but its bouncing hard now) ; silver down 4% in the same period

Gold up 2%

Solgold up 32%...

But when the dust settles, as the post 2008 Crash showed...there will be the mother and father of a metals and Junior Miners Bull market...

Reasons to be cheerful huh?!

Nothing could be more stark...

SOLG has raised $750 million and will have NO DIFFICULTY raising the other $900 million, being already FULLY FUNDED to the start of mine construction...

SXX totally failed to find the £500 million to build the mine...

Anglo took them out for 5p...

Now look at the mess Anglo are in...

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/anglo-takes-16-bln-writedown-at-woodsmith-mine-after-half-year-loss-grzc3yo1myokj02.html

55p novice?

Why are you underselling Solgold...?

More to come later...

Simply outstanding pad...genius...

No blue at all on my Watchlist of 30 stocks...WTF...

Very confident on Solgold now...more tomorrow...

Reasons to believe

Still 11.9p equivalent on TMX...

Less than 300k buys in the last 2 hours...we hold ten times that amount...

When it pops through 12p we'll see it...

You cant resist it affirm...slow down...we can all see what is happening top the SP...or not...

And even more dramatic for gold miners on this 20 year graph...

That gap has to close somehow...

https://aiolux.com/contrasts/side-by-side?scroll=quick_comparison&symbol_arr%5B%5D=GDX&symbol_arr%5B%5D=SPY&time_span=20y

Look at the divergence of gold vs the S&P 500 since 2011...

And its even greater for GDXJ...

https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/compare-indexes/gold-bullion-vs-sp-500?currency=eur

And the gold price...

If anyone is looking for a fundametal reason for gold to go very much higher, try this...

https://www.usdebtclock.org/