This is nuts11 Mar 2010 14:24
First, I'm in at 1.068 and 1.45, so neither ramper nor de-ramper.
But I'm reading these posts and I've looked at the trades and there's something seems obvious...
The holders and the buyers and the sellers were all waiting for the funding news to do something. The MMs can read these posts as well as anyone else. If I was Jenard and the MMs here's what I'd do...
EFD: speak to EVO to speak to the MMs saying a 'tap' of equity is coming (10m shares).
RL: isn't allowed to buy any more shares without making an offer for the company.
Jenard: has had 4 year JV relationship with RL/EFD through Hawkesbury. EFD found the sites. Jenard bought some outright and some 50:50 through Hawkesbury. Jenard is an Ozzie with cash to burn. Agrees to buy 10m shares as a no-lose, because MMs will ramp the market on the funding news (helped by us suckers). So...
MMs sell loads of shares short up to 1.90 yesterday and today on relief buys (at almost double the new issue price!), knowing that they can close the bargains at, say 1.40-1.50 on monday, giving Jenard a 40-50% quickie.
Now, as to the 90 million on tap: they are replacing an overdraft facility and may not need to be drawn if either RL makes a sale and/or gets a p[lanning permission, or buys an undervalued plot and revalues for bank purposes.
So that could be good news because we have till Aug 31 for something big to happen with Workington, Birkwood or Paignton.
Aug 31 is key also because there is over 20m debt maturing pre-31 December. If this can't be refinanced or replaced and/or the sites can't be revalued/sold, the company will fail. However, it also gives nearly 6 months to negotiate with the serious player or even RL to take the company private for a song.
In summary: not much action above the present [price unless wekeep it active and/or bigger players come in;
then a bit dead and drifting until either good news on sites and/or new funding (more dilution); or doom approaches.
All in all, and assuming 100m new shares at 1p plus 230m old at 5p pre-slump gives a diluted survival target of 3.75p and a ST target of say 2.20p without more news IMO.
DYOR and thanks for reading.