Member Info for mattlilly

And a Mid Price range of only 0.2p despite 1.4 million shares traded...

Indeed the lowest price sold to highest price paid is only 0.88p...

Colonel...the target price is 102.34p for Alpala and 2.66p for the rest...

Others have implied that there isn't the equity headroom for NM to issue more to the Chinese...

I'm convinced they're buying more in the market...hence the price being held down in a 2.5p range for the last ten days...

What happened to 'shock and ore'....?

Make that 50,000 in total...

OK...just bought back 32,000 for a trade...lets see where we go from here...

I totally agree...if Hannam have released this after conversations with Ingo, this reads like a 'come and get them' report...

The 'non Alpala attribution of 2.66p may be the excuse for a series of RNSs, which may well be being held back pending an incoming bid...

Quady has often said there's never been a bid...may not be long now...

Exit price? Still 100/200p...

But first a Holdings RNS from Valuestone to light the blue touch paper...

I might even be tempted back in for the quarter i sold... cheap as chips, but only on bid speculation...without a bid the 'Value Valley' will be long and deep...

105p...sorry fat thumbs...

Below a couple of disappointing quotes from the Hannam report (especially so for CGP...good!)

But the most astonishing aspect is that they ascribe only $75 million to 'other projects' in their risk adjusted value of 109p...

That's a mere 2.66p per share....
"we now believe our previously modelled development timeline appears less likely to be achieved and have pushed back forecast first production by one year to 2027."

"Given the completion of the PFS is likely to be six months later than originally envisaged, the DFS and subsequent construction financing process now look set to be progressed 2022-23, in our view. We believe this will push the commencement of any major construction work to late 2023-24, to approximately a year later than previously modelled. As such we have also pushed the forecast for first production back by a year, to 2027 from 2026. Given the extended timeline and potential geotechnical complexities, we have inflated our growth capex estimates by ~5% to ~US$2.94bn pre-production and US$7.54bn over the LoM, following first production. Overall, these changes lead to a 17% cut in our NPV estimate for Alpala to US$4.21bn and an 18% cut in our target price to 105p/sh, still ~209% above the current share price."

From Bloomberg yesterday...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-12-22/-Silver-may-take-the-gold-Bloomberg-Intelligence-is-looking-at-50-silver-price.html

Sorry Quady that was the whole of the post but iceberg seems to have access...

Hi Scoutt...just one of the many reasons for buying gold/silver...

Nouriel Roubini is one of the most highly respected commentators in the US...see his scathing recent attacks on Bitcoin and his 23 reasons to buy gold...

https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/economist-nouriel-roubini-trashes-bitcoin-manipulation-retail-investor-fomo-2020-11-1029844248

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEodUqfT22A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCX2dku83_0

This may not help the SP...from a poster on ADVFN...

"I see Hannam has reduced its Alpala NPV by 17% - because mine redesign to incorporate possible Tandayama-America means high grade core will be mined later. Another reason for any major contemplating Alpala to keep sitting on the sidelines. Just like investors."

I understand your natural concern Quady about 'BHP taking us out cheap', but that will never happen...

There are at least there prospective Tier 1s in the SOLG portfolio, on copper gold and silver...

The majors like Barrick would not stand idly by and let BHP take us out. BHP will know that and the delay in them bidding may well be based on deciding how high their opening salvo needs to be to be taken seriously by the other major investors for starters, especially NCM (who invested here for a strategic interest, i.e. a mining JV and would surely want a substantial profit to compensate) and Blackrock particularly, let alone Nick, directly or indirectly, CGP and us ordinary mortals...

But I repeat, the great unknown is the Chinese. In 202 they have bought more copper than ever in their history. They are the prime reason for the copper price surging because in warehouse stocks of copper outside China have never been lower.

Copper, lithium and Rare Metals are the most strategic metals for China now. The Chinese have an incestuous relationship with the Ecuador Government.

Three of Ecuador's five most important mines are funded and operated by Chinese firms. The parent of Valuestone is probably the favourite, but if anyone tries to lowball, expect the Chinese to win, unless local opposition prevents that...

AIMO as usual...

Hi Miagi

I've come round to the view that a JV(s) is the best way to ward off a bid and I get your thinking on BHP but my logic suggests NCM...

I think Nick has to mend fences with these big players. It was clear from their initial approach that BHP were the more aggressive and while I realise that both BHP and NCM were upset at the FNV deal, it was suggested at the time that the NCM Director who was withdrawn was reluctant to go.

NCM is much smaller than BHP and less likely to have designs on the whole of SOLG...if I recall, their resource expansion budget for 2021 is no more than $1 billion.

They are the block caving specialists (although BHP has more than 10 years experience).

And for me if Nick wants to mend fences with BHP as well, Porvenir looks to be the more natural fit...

I believe his 'dream ticket' could be:

JV Alpala with NCM
Get rid of CGP forever
JV Porvenir with BHP
Use all the released cash to progressively develop all the other prospects, starting with Rio Amarillo

AIMO as usual and sincere Seasons Greetings to one and all (including those that are currently filtered...after all it is the season of goodwill for all men...and women...)

Hi again Tiger...

I should have read to the end of your post...

"a really well-run, undervalued, low-cost copper producer to recommend"

Have a look at ATYM...it ticks all your boxes....I've doubled my money twice in them although I'm out for the time being....they would be a steal IMO if they slipped back to the 180s again...

Hi TBT...if you're looking at unrecognised silver prospects have a look at ADT1...their mines are in Eastern Europe...I know a guy who knows Paul Cronin and has 'millions' of the shares...they're setting themselves up to be taken over, which I thought was Nick's original plan for SOLG...?

I forgot ADT1 in my post below...my fourth biggest holding:

1 SOLG
2 GPM
3 HOC
4 ADT1

Please DYOR

Isn't Ecuador a Catholic country...in which case they're bound to shut down for extended festivities...

Hi iceberg...

I'm totally with you on Wheaton Precious Metals...I was delighted to see that a third 'silver company' had listed on LSE. My fave is HOC for silver, still massively undervalued IMO following Eduardo's disposal...I expect it to recover to 300+ or even more when silver finally performs (I'm setting a target of $50 plus). I'm less keen on FRES becuad their resource is declining until Juanicipio comes on stream...however I bought MAG Silver who are their partner and made a tidy profit there.

I don't normally invest in overseas shares. I have DGR Global because of their SOLG leverage.

Eventually I found so many websites saying PAA (Pan American Silver) is the best investment and I bought them on the TSX...they'r e doing very nicely.

But returning to WPM, I decided to leave them for the time being because:

1 As you said, there is virtually no liquidity for the time being

2 They are strongly correlated to the Silver price, but I want more leverage and a better spread.

HOC is now making even more money from Gold than silver and eventually that will be reflected in the SP

GPM is my chosen vehicle for PGMs for the foreseeable future...they have a wide spread; the recent Sub share issue gave them £13 million while several gold and silver shares were temporarily lower; and in the post Sub Share fallout the SP at 54 is at a discount of 18% to yesterday's published NAV. So we're in to the tune of 500,000 at an average 49.5.

Like SOLG, will hold HOC, GPM and PAA for much bigger things.

Good luck with WPM, I shall continue to follow them closely because Silver and Tin (SML) are the next boom metals in the post EV economy IMO

All the best

You're right it looks like a rollover, but why would it be done at the offer price and why would there be two price monitoring extensions

Whoever bought those 10 million shares at lunchtime paid up...caused two price monitoring extensions to get them...

Paid 0.45ish...I only paid 0.4174 yesterday for 2.8 million...

Do they know something we don't?