Member Info for mattlilly

Slug super bullish on the other side...

"Think so Sean, it's coming now. ...The first bid will be sooner than you imagine."

Ans we would have had to pay a much higher pri ce to get CGP...

I believe Nicks terms then were higher than we're getting them now...and they wanted a minimum of more than three times the current price...

Meanwhile Toronto seems pretty bullish on SOLG...cloed at 19.84p equivalent...fireworks ahead...?

Quiet day...1.2 million volume but...I could still sell 300k close to the Bid...

Well thoiught through and argued comments SM

There will be a takeover battle for Solgold...its only a matter of time...

Unless of course one bidder makes a knockout bid...which would have to be well north of £1 in my opinion for the combined SOLG/CGP Board to recommend it...

Ah well, multiple views make a debate. Well done all...

Hi SM

Thank you for your worthy and well reasoned post.

I hope you won't mind my disagreeing.

DGR also said thede:

"There is a risk that this may lead to a creeping takeover rather than a bid by which all shareholders would benefit." (opposition by both BHP Group Limited and Newcrest Mining Limited to several resolutions in the past)

"The deal with Osisko takes financing overhang away and values the Cascabel project at levels well above SolGold’s market capitalisation.”

And at the time of the FNV deal...

"Asked why he preferred the loan to an equity raising, Mr Mather said he wanted to avoid a situation where BHP and Newcrest's financial firepower enabled them to dilute small shareholders and gradually creep towards control of SolGold.

''One of the valuable themes for small shareholders is a takeover premium and if you lose that, then you have not served your shareholders in the best manner,''

So I am in no doubt that Mather is seeking a takeover battle to maximise shareholder value and his comments about the Osisko deal suggest he values the Cascabel alone at up to $8.3 billion or £7 billion.

Next...SOLG and GCP have appointed Maxit, who are M&A specialists. They were appointed by Wyloo just before the 70c bid and until the successful 110c takeover.

Sangha's comments that BHP and Newcrest can go f*** themselves, although utterly unprofessional was clearly designed to wind them up and they sit alongside Twigger's challenge to "put up or shut up" and Mather's message above.

There is absolutely no reason why a comp[any of the scale of Jiangxi would take a piffling $30m stake unless they either expected to launch a takeover bid and/or to profit massively from a takeover battle if they lost.

People keep talking about 'lowball bids' but Noront is a perfectly acceptable example of what can happen, even with just two bidders. Market analysts in North America are already agreed that junior M&A consolidation is underway.

"At a time when major banks are forecasting significant global copper shortfalls from 2030 onwards and current stockpiles represent only weeks of current demand, the SolGold’s resource and exploration inventory presents an enormous
opportunity for the definition of not just one mine but an entire copper province." can be read as "C'mon guys, look at the prospective value we have here..."

"no one has bid for the company..."

Yes but nobody has bid for the vast majority of Junior Miners for the last several years, but with gold and silver now breaking out, the extraordinary predictions for future copper prices and the desperate need for EV critical minerals, it is only a matter of time. I am confident that a raft of majors will have made a preliminary review of Solgold.

Finally:

"the pool of majors with the means...and motivation...to spend billions on a Tier 1 mine in a less-stable jurisdiction"

So why are there already 15/20 majors with an entity established in Ecuador?

positive correlation between solGOLD and POG...

Good start to the year DBW...HNY to you also...

Thanks for all your helpful and eruditew contributions in 2022...

Copper now forecast to be in surplus this year, as millions a day get COVID in China...

To remind Dart...

On 11 April SOLG was 40.35

Gold was $19.70

Copper was $4.70

They will return and so will the SOLG SP...

If I remember correctly CGP valued themselves at $12.50 in their last aggressive rejection...

Currently $3.87 having been $5.23 when SOLG hit 40p in April...

Thanks Bozi and addickt. Those two erudite posts have created a worthy debate.

All sound.

1SN starting to move...Ingo and Nick are on the Board together...

Maybe Nick's next plaything after SOLG is sold...?

Orthern I corrected my error...

I predict this will go for between 80/120p...

Thats down from what I consistently said before because of the extra dilution.

You can complain ramping, bjut this afternoons discussions feel like derampiong...

"That recent 16p price was both worrying and revealing to me, and will be used as a starting point for any deal.. and all the 300% plus Noront comparisons in the world don’t get us anywhere close to £1 from 15p."""

If that doiesn't count as deramping I don't know what does...

Ask yourself these questions:

Why on earth would CGP Directors and major shareholders, previously aggressively at loggerheads with Mather, now have bonded with him...do you really think they would have merged CGP with SOLG to settle for 33/40p...?

And Mather has consistently said any buyer should focus on Asset Value not Market Value. and the former is way north of 33p...

Why go to all this trouble and cost to settle for a takeout ;price that would be BELOW what the SP was on April 11th? Just nine months ago...the talks between the two parties have been going on at least that long...

The trouble is that fear and disappointment are being allowed to drive the conversations on here. I am every bit as disappointed to see the SP at 16p but I'm not selling a penny of what is now a 2.5 million holding.

Not because I'm cussed or desperate but because the endgame here will be life changing and the only thing that worries me is the market in general.

Maxit were appointed by Wyloo before they bid 70c and the takeoout was 110c...Noront is nothing like the riches we have here...

The idea that it might come down to a battle between Jiangxi and BHP doesn't hold water for me. I seriousluy expect that maybe more than a dozen serious contenders may have run a preliminary rule over Solgold...just count the number of players already in Ecuador and none have the total prospect that wehave.

Add in the certainty of a copper price boom...Goldmans say $15,000...and the long overdue gold price boom with its attendant Junior Miners M&A frenzy and you have the makings of real fireworks...

No I'm not ramping. Of course I'm speculating, but thats why I'm here.

And personally I think the 'strategic review' is a smokescreen and won't see the light of day...

This has been set up for a takeover battle and Maxit is the ringmaster as they were for Wyloo...

So why is the SP where it is? Because there are no significant sellers and little liquidity so the price drifts on no news to a price where MMs can make money...

But also because so many people think like Fort and Orthern, that there is little to go for; few are convinced there is a takeover battle coming; some even think we're waiting for production; and fear is driving the market. So if somebody was silly enough to bid 33p I bet a fair few even here would dump shares with relief...

Always open for debate. Seasons greetings.

Noront parallels...

August 2021:

"Wyloo Metals has engaged Maxit Capital LP to act as its financial advisor"

Submits its offer:

"Consideration of Cdn$0.70 in cash per share represents a 192% premium to Noront’s unaffected closing price on May 21, 2021 and a 27% premium to BHP’s Cdn$0.55 per share take-over bid price"

Luca Giocovazzi says:

"“Wyloo Metals didn’t make its cornerstone investment in Noront earlier this year to accept an offer that represents a fraction of the potential value of Noront’s Ring of Fire assets. We invested in Noront because it has the potential to be Canada’s next great mineral hub and produce the metals critical to decarbonizing our planet.”

"“In April this year, we were deeply concerned when the Noront Board proposed to farm out Noront’s exploration projects to BHP for only Cdn$25 million. Rather than consenting to such a transaction, we decided to make an offer to acquire the Company. Our fears were justified when the Noront Board completed a deeply discounted 5% placement to BHP, giving away a strategic toehold in the Company to an obvious suitor."

December 2021 Wyloo knockout bid...360% higher than Noront's SP in May 2021...

"Wyloo’s proposal at C$1.10 per share trumps BHP’s bid of C$0.75, which currently has the support of the Noront board. Earlier, BHP said it had been unable to win backing from Wyloo — already a major shareholder in the Canadian company — for its offer. Wyloo’s latest offer is nearly 60% above the C$0.70 per share proposal it made in August. "

The best example of how Bob Sangha brings home the bacon for shareholders...

$2 billion plus funding, including massive equity dilution, however its achieved, would severely depress the SP until first copper was mined...

Jjust look at the history of ATYM...

You're right addickt...wrong denominator...£1.35...

Sound comments as usual addickt..

Heres my take...

Jiangxi has been brought in as a stalking horse...when you consider Irwins comments, other players would be hellbent on preventing this tightening the Chinese armlock on copper markets that they already have...

Of course BHP are potential players and even if they dont succeed, they will make any successful bidder pay too dollar....and NCM want the maximum return on their 'Strategic Investment'...

It seems to me that they both voted against the resolutions because they can see the game being played here...to their disadvantage...

Of course Jiangxi are serious about their investment...$30m is peanuts for the Chinese Government, financially and for strategic reasons, including entrenching themselves further in Ecuador..

So I see every probability that a third possible bidder would be sought...when you see what happened with a two way tussle for Noront, a three way fight here could produce a highly satisfactory exit price for us all...

Of course the value a bidder places on a target is a key consideration.

BHP clearly had a limit for OzMinerals and look to have secured a reasonable deal...but this is different...

My judgement is that Wyloo ended up paying more than they intended fir Noront, but in my M&A experience, Boards often end up paying more than intended...its a bit like going to an auction with a maximum price in mind and walking out having paid more because you wouldn't let go...

So Jiangxi are key for me...they undoubtedly have their eyes on the prize and deep pockets, but when a third player enters, the sky is the limit...and Jiangxi would still walk away with a handsome profit...

Mather has always focused on an Asset Value target, not Market Value...

Surely that gives you anything up to £2 ...?

Cheers NRL...I took it that Irwin meant 78p was much too low...