Member Info for mattlilly

SM I cant see why a bidder would bother waiting until the merger is complete///

OK so things would be cleaner after 9 January, but...

! Although if somebody bids now, CGPs 15% is outside, but I think they would be left in a vulnerable position whereby the bidder could hold them to ransom to sell the 15% at a knockdown price...otherwise they could simply go ahead with the intention to build, and where would CGP find the $50m plus to pay for what they already owe, at the time construction begins...31.12.2023?

2 If somebody bid now, unless it was a knockout bid, say 125p or more, there would surely be at least one counterbid and the 'battle' would go well beyond 9 January before any takeover was complete. I doubt that a determined bidder would be too worried about the 'juggling'...

Talatum...

"The market "is people panicking and selling as the price goes down and shorters selling, while others who plan to profit from the takeover are hoovering up on the other side...

Now it makes sense...

Although the volumes in CGP have been poor that dioesn't mean that sizeable transactions haven't taken place...

As I mentioned before...there may well be many CGP shareholders who don't want to exhcn age their CDN denominated, Toronto listed shares for sterling denominated shares listed in London.

So supposing they find a buyer who just happens to be a 'merger arbitrageur'...the latter buys the CGP shares at below full value, meanwhile shorting the target company i.e. SOLG...

Then closes the short before the merger goes through and pockets the difference...

So heres a Christmas conspiracy theory...

Maxit got 23 million shares...

0.5% shorted by XIB Asset Management is 11.5 million shares...half the placed shares...

So just suppose the shorted shares were to hold the SP down (using Algos) so that those 'in the know' could fill their boots, knowing that the short could be closed by taking up half the 23 million at 16.3p..?

And heres a coincidence...

Maxit Capital 181 Bay Street Toronto

XIB Asset Management 200 Bay Street Toronto...

Sean McNulty...Merger-Arbitrage specialist...

And heres an interesting article...

https://thehedgefundjournal.com/making-event-driven-strategies-work-in-latin-america/

"An example of this is in the area of merger arbitrage. In developed markets, information is so widely disbursed and rapidly acted-upon by such a large number of investors that the spreads in a typical merger arbitrage deal rapidly narrow to the point that currently it is an uninteresting strategy. In Latin America, however, merger arbitrage deals have been so few and far between that they have simply not attracted the attention of the vast majority of investors. As such, when they do occur, few players are in a position to seize the opportunity, or to properly evaluate the risks involved. Consequently, the spreads tend not to be arbitraged out as they would be in more developed markets. For those that are properly structured to take advantage of this, the returns can be quite attractive."

I completely agree addickt...for the time being they won't be sold, in order to protect the AGM votes...

Then surely held in Treasury as there is no need to sell them while someobody is prepared to hoover up shares in the market...

Interesting but it says 0% change...so what happens when they have to close their short...of 11.5 million shares...?

In fact we probably wont need the Osisisko money which can be repaid...

6.3% to Jiangxi is a teaser to set up a bidding war...

The next TR1 should be interesting...

We're not going to production...

This thing will be sold within a few months max...

Dont worry...

Ongoing saga of funding...?

Weve just raised $86 million...enough to get well into H2 next year...

But we wont need that long...

Big volumes...1.334 million including the UT...

It's very simple Darren...despite it being blindingly obvious that this is set up for a takeover battle that some of us (DBW for example) have been flagging for weeks, some are giving up on their dream of on their dream of Allala going to production...

And given the much higher volumes in the last 5 weeks it's also clear that others are gratefully gobbling the shares...

Fir as long as there are disillusioned sellers, why should the MMs pump the price...?

Agreed...

Nobodys getting it for peanuts Bubble...

If anyone is selling at these levels they want their head testing...

Why would they do that while Maxit is hoovering up 23 million shares...? (and others presumably?)

And a TR1 could emerge any day, even before Fawzi updates the major holidngs...

No consoloation but CGP is down 7% also...

However SOLG TSX price equivalent is 18.6p (on no volume)...

Fair question brad...

The thing is, Sangha (Maxit) is a M&A specialist...he's not interested in taking Cascabel to production..

So all we have to do is guess, based on his entry price for his 23 million (£3.75 million) what exit price he is looking for...?

I'm guessing 4/5 times might do it (i.e. 65/80p) but whatever it is he wouldn't do it if he didn't expect to make a substantial profit...after all £3.75m won't be big potatotes in the context of his business turnover...

Kane Unable....

Jiangxi 6.3% Maxit (Sangha) 1%...

Bring on the bids!

addickt...You Tolgui is more complex than Cascabel.....hasnt stopped Rio...

Good call DBW

Hi Seav...

My opinion is that CGP was struggling before the merger announcement...a decent portfolio of prospects but much further back on the curve than SOLG..

Fairly recently they had to sell SOLG shares to finance and now the market is quite thin...

So the main players at CGP see this as a way to monetise their own assets at a price they wouldn't otherwise achieve in years probably.

The CGP SP was bombed out so the movement up may be a recovery to more realistic levels, a bit of arbitrage as a way in to SOL and a bit of speculation. Nobody will be selling CHP before 9 January so any buying would push the price up.

Finally I think there is a sub plot...

Whoever buys SOLG probably wont want a portfolio of 80 or so lesser plays, so it wouldn't surprise me to see a spin out after the takeover with CGP MK 2 emerging...

AIMO as usual...