Member Info for mattlilly

Canada and New Zealand are the two places I could live...

In reply to the following tweet:

"Makes no sense for interested parties to continue sitting back when copper price is set to explode - Mather is playing the long game for obvious reasons!! Is that your take"

Irwin replied:

"Nope"

82 out of 84 consecutive ALGO trades drove the price down...

Suddenly 550,000 disappeared and the price falls back...order filled?

Now 750k...

Very strong underlying demand...

Firmly bid for 700,000 at 17.15...

UT could be very interesting, but can we break 18 soon...please...?

Agreed NP...have you got a hotline to the man...?

Meanwhile anybody spotted Tin is up 60% in 11 weeks...?

Agreed NP...sound...

There is an echelon of strategic reasons for the Chinese to buy this and, like DBW I suspect, price will be no object to knockout the competition.

That doesn't mean the first bid will be a 'knockout' but you can't rule that out.

I am still of the view that the final takeout price will have a 1 in front of it (no not 17p...100/125p...)

And there doesn't need to be an argument with the Chinese unlike such as BHP that are answefrable to their shareholders. They refused to 'overpay' for Noront and they haven't 'overpaid' with OZ Minerals.

So the strategic reasons appear to be:

'Thde Belt and Road initiative: China already has an armlock on Ecuador through the debt funding of the now declining oil industry. Lasso has to address this and the recent 'trade deal' may be the outcome

China's publicly stated determination to be the top global economy and to achieve dominance in 'strategic' minerals, especially battery/EV minerals, REMs and of course 'Dr Copper'. (Incidentally they have also been surreptitiously heavily buying gold and their reserves are believed to be many times higher than 'publi' figures..probably as a bedrock to a new digitally based global currency).

An inevitable intention to establish if possible the biggest footprint in the Ecuadorian Mining industry, as they have indeed in much of Africa.

The 'trophy win' of a Tier 1 copper/gold prospect (SOLG, who already hold tghe mostg prospects in Ecuador).

If en passant they stuck one up BHP they won't mind that at all.

So if William Hill were making a book they would probably price:

Takeover 1/2
Jiangxi 10/11
BHP 3/1
Any oter major 5/1

Heres an interesting take...

Tengen, the CEO of the Norwegian Wealth Fund just said at Davos "we invest for 40/100 years..."

Mind you I bet he would love to bank a 200% + profit...

C'mon DM...this is a good natured exchange and you've missed the point that I was wickedly trying to get the chauvinists to come out and fight...

I have no problem with you.

I don't think "the talent we missed" was 'high praise'...I've been lucky enough to work with some very talented people and, based on my exchanges with AS I believe she has potential which has not yet been reflected in her career and I wish her well in what is a new challen ging role with both the Chairman and CEO having exited...

As to DC...I don't think I've praised him in the way you said, but he did appear to bring some commonsense thinking to SOLG at forst, based on the then assumption that we wer in for the long haul.

I lost all confidence after the funding debacle which left us open to takeover IMO...

Lets part as friends...

Far more succinct than me DBW...it all seems to point in one direction...

Oh dear NP lets part as friends...thanks for the insight...and for confirmin g that AS was the innocent party...

Sorry mate...just being nitpicking...

Where is it 'common knowledge' nitpicker?

Or do you mean she was sacrificed on DC's altar...and how did that work out...?

I've been thinking back through what looks like an 'audit trail' to an inevitable bid by Jiangxi...

Why would an investment fund set up by Jaingxi (Valuestone) with an initial $300m seedcorn, take a piffling $11m stake in SOLG and the not increase it?

Unless they have and it now sits at 2.99%, having been a 'stalking horse' for their masters...

I have no doubt that that in itial investment, which Nick clearly supported, would have given Valuestone (i.e. Jiangxi) an inside track to a lot of useful information through whatever due diligence they did..

And then, given that the SOLG/CGP 'discussions' have been going on for at least 9/10 months, and the obvious intention is to sell the company to tghe highest bidder, in the context of the Osisko deal, Jiangxi's 'investment' wasn't needed.

So was it a deliberate 'foot in the door'?

The Chinese government is seeking to create a stranglehold on REM's and strategic minerals critical to climate change management, especially though their burgeoning EV manufacture (latest Tesla sales in China are below target, but the Chinese manufacturers are working at full pelt...

The CCP already has dominance in copper and they also have a historical relationship with Ecuador, especially through the now declining oil industry and a debt that the Ecuadorian government can't yet repay..

The latter's salvation undoubtedly lies in mining...Lasso only has 2 years before the next election and needs some quick wins.

So have we been looking the wrong way on the recent trade agreement.

We've said that this makes SOLG more attractive, but suppose its actually the other way round?

Wouldn't it be convenient if the CCP (sorry, Jiangxi) first 'trophy win' was SOLG...?

I remain of the opinion that the Chinese would be prepared to lay wahetever it takes for a Tier 1 prospect in a 'partner' country.

So I am convinced that Jiangxi have either been set up for a knockout bid for SOLG or to tease out a bid(s) from other major miner(s)...viz the articles posted today...M&A about to kick off...Sangha's bread and butter...

Which leaves just one question...will Jiangxi start low and be prepared to fight it out, or will they come in with a knockout bid?

Whichever way, Nick has consistently staeted he wants 'Asset value' not 'Market value'...

All views welcome

Sorry ET...ET not DC...Freudian slip...? ;-)

Based on what happened DC you could well be right...

I have a contact on Twitter who is comparing gold, copper and a range of relevant prices/indices against SOLG's SP performance...

ALL the graphs diverge from late June onwards, with SOLG massively underperforming against them all...

As I implied yesterday, if anything SOLG is better placed now than it was when the SP was 45p...plenty of cash, 100% ownership of Cascabel, etc.

So if that was DC's role he succeeded big time...but it leaves SOLG as an obvious and very attratcive takeover target at a starting price probably lower than it would have been pre June...

So if your speculation is true, will BHP follow through...are they waiting for the first bid...any suggestions?

addickt...Ingo signed a NDA...I will open up if he ever gives me the green light..and no he has never disclosed any 'material' or 'inside information'

BTW he had a very serious cycling accident not long after he left..he's now CEO of Omico and, along with Nick, NED of LSE quoted First Tin (I have shares)

So whats the point of mentioning the MCap in your comment...?

"She's been at APC - with a MCap of c£40m - 3 months."

I'm delighted for her. She had a very unpleasant experience in her previous role.

Then she lost her job at SOLG through no fault of her own.

I'm sure you understand its much harder for a woman to get a CEO role in a quoted company...probably even harder in Oz...

She deserves to succeed and I will never stop championing talent...Ingo being another...