RE: We26 Jan 2023 09:46
IMO, until the merger is complete, we have something of a false market...
CGP down 3% on almost zero volume last night, probably being marked in line with the SOLG price, down 1% on 40k...
CGP sterling equivalent in SOLG terms is 16; SOLG converts to 16.5, so they're convergent and it looks like market makers don't want to see CGP stock...unsurprisingly
Clearly nobody is arbitraging or selling in Canada.
And while we won't see the true situation until the extra 506 million are in circulation, why would anyone sell when 99.98% voted to accept the merger...
Furthermore, the SOLG offering surely has to be more attractive than CGP's, especially with a stake in 100% of ENSA, a proven Tier 1, a possible Tier 1 and multiple other prospects, added to Bramadero etc with a much more realistic prospect of development without persistent cash calls...
However...to get such a vote there must be either or both a big concentration of CGP holders 'in the know' about Bob's M&A intentions...or a goodly proportion of the latter and a substantial and growing number of believers in the prospect of a takeover battle (like here)...
You can be pretty sure that there will be no Quady's in the new investors...why jump out of the frying pan into the fire...
So in conclusion, while there may be some initial weakness in the SP, Bob has a new army of supporters ready to vote for a takeover by the highest bidder, with a far more realistic opportunity for monetisation and profit than CGP, who in recent years had to sell SOLG shares to keep the lights on; had already racked up at least $50/60m in contingent liability for Cascabel; and with no chance of financing Bramadero without a penal J/V...
AIMO as usual