Member Info for mattlilly

IMO those who are talking about a takeout at 40p, 30p, I even saw 25p today, lets get a perspective...

Noront Resources was a Junior Miner with one main prospect at Eagles Nest, whose Market Cap in May 2021 before the bidding started was $128 million. At the final bid it was $612 million...

Even at its worst today, SOLG's MCap is $450m...and it has at least one Tier 1 Mine ready to start construction at 15 months notice...FNV valued the gross metal output at $10 billion and Osisko at c $8.4 billion, just from Cascabel...

NCM has risen from a MCap of £8 billion to c£13 billion since last September.

Even if SOLG was fairly valued last April at c£1 billion, its still a fraction of Newcrest's probable takeout value.

BHP's buyout of OZ Minerals is £5.5 billion

So Personally I don't think a starting bid of 50p (£1.2 billion) is unreasonable for SOLG, with an exit up to £2.5 billion.

Its easy to think that markets fairly value a company but...

We don't have a cash problem for at least the rest of 2023, but markets hate uncertainty. With most people fully loaded, weak or panicky holders and shorters are easily pushing down the SP on below average volumes since mid December, waiting, waiting, waiting for the merger to be completed.

After the slimmed down PFS 1.5 in April 2022 we hit 40p. Since then we've looked like a basket case, but we still have the same assets in the ground and by next week we will own 100% of Cascabel...

So although its absolutely legit to air ones worst fears on here, our views on the likely starting bid and final takeout should be influenced by last April's price not today's.

After all, None of Blackrock, Norge, DGR, Tenstar, NCM or BHP are selling and Jiangxi have only just bought.

Yes its painful, but if you have to sell you're already overcommitted.

The question is whether or when the SP reaches capitulation...

At the start of COVID the SP hit 10p...7 months later it was 44p...

Patience...

Monte...the 'plant' is probably cannabis or magic mushrooms...

In case anyone is wondering why management isn't supporting the price with buys, they can't.

1 Its a 'closed period' (30 days before the MD&A)

2 It theres anything else material going on, such as a prospective bid for the company, they would be trading on inside information...

And if you think thats frustrating for us, imagine how frustrating it must be for them, seeing the SP at its second lowest since March 2020 (COVID bottom)...

And there was I thinking I had called the bottom when I bought the wife's last lot at 15.79...

All seems a long time ago...

PS For those that are seriously scared, remind yourself that one of the biggest Chinese State owned copper companies bought a 6.3% stake only weeks before the new Sino Ecuador Trade Agreement was signed...

Jiangxi Market Cap £35 billion

Chinese Stock Market Mcap $12.2 TRILLION

Jiangxi's investment in Solgold £18 million...

And remember they previously dipped their toes with Valuestone and all the DD they must have done before they bought their latest stake (not to mention Osisisko's...valuing the gross ore produced at $8.3 billion))

Now why would they bother...?

Has responded to my emails as follows:

"Thank you for highlighting the below and for you emails earlier this week. I want to acknowledge that these are being read."

I copied DG1's 49 times recommended 'communications' post from today.

Frankly I don't envy Fawzi ATMO (except his $400k a year).

He will have his hands full with the merger stuff; the MD&A (Feb 14), keeping up to date with our grief; and anything relevant to do with the takeover bid....

Talatum...your friend is a fool or deliberately winding you up...

He wasn't a SXX investor by any chance...?

The problem here is that while nothing is happening theres understandably fear and unfounded speculation...

Monte...its the merger completion holding up the bid(s)...who would bid for a company with only 85% of ENSA and all the ensuing disruption?

Or is it the bid(s) holding up the merger completion as I suggested below...?

1 Surely Maxit already have their fee with the share issue last year...?

2 You cannot honestly think that Nick would accept anywhere near 30p...or for that matter the CGP Directors who said CGP was worth $12.50/share in rebuffing Mather's second approach...that equates to 70p a share...!

Sadly I couldn't agree more DM...

No merger before the MD&A...disaster...

Industrial Metals (BHP, RIO, etc. etc.) having another solid day

Since August 15, that index is up 22%...

SOLG is down 35%...

You couldn't make it up...

No dave...2.5m and holding...not even trading at the margin...

Cheers

As well as what I've posted below, it is just possible that the finer details of the negotiations invlove the carving up of the assets other than Cascabel.

If a bidder buys SOLG rather than Cascabel, there are no tax consequences for the rump of SOLG, so...

The smart thing to do is for the bidder to buy SOLG and pre-agree a carve up of most, if not all, of the other 70+ projects (including Porvenir, Helipuerto, Rio, etc. maybe) between DGR Global and CGP 'Newco'...

So we get our hard earned cash and Nick and the rest sail on to a new future...

Just a theory...

So heres a theory...

For those of us that are convinced that a bid(s) is coming, there may be two convergent questions...

Why is the merger taking so long and...

When will the first bid happen?

So just suppose the two are linked.

The 'Prospectus' that seems to be holding up the merger completion is a standard document, as I'm sure better informed posters on here will confirm. The rest is just routine (although listing authorities can be slow and cumbersome, not to mention FCA...)

So just supposing what is really happening is that the merger finalisation is being deliberately held up, while the first (and maybe final) takeover bid is agreed.

If you look at the Newmont bid for Newcrest the other day, it was clear that there was an earlier bid that we gdidn't hear about, because revised terms were mentioned.

So...and given that Nick had always insisted that SOLG would not be sold on the cheap (and he has said the bid should be driven by 'Asset Value' not 'Market Value"), if someone like Jiangxi has made an approach, the ideal for both parties would be to announce a deal that the Board can recommend. So maybe there is negotiation on that 'knockout' price.

Even then, as history shows, you can't rule out a counterbid...

Remember the Noront Board recommended a 75c bid from BHP before Wyloo trumped it with a 'knockout' 110c a share bid...representing a 380% premium on Noront's share price only 7 months previously, before it all started...

So SOLG could play out like this...

Merger completed RNS, immediatley followed by the announcememnt of a bid, most likely from Jiangxi...

If that happens it will be too late to buy in at 15p or even 16p...

Hmm...I understand your frustration killjoy and apart from BHP's bid for SOLG/Cascabel back in the day, when they settled for an equity stake, we may never know how many havemade informal approaches.

What we do know is that Mitsui told the Vice President for mInes that they wanted a stake in Cascabel.

We also know that Jiangxi, a massive copper mining company owned by the Chinese State, bought a 6% stake only a couple of months ago. There is no way they would buy that on a whim as a speculative investment.

And we know not only that, post merger BHP and NCM will still have over 10% in a bigger SOLG that includes 100% of ENSS, but also when SOLG has taken streaming deals or share issues that weren't 'Rights' issues, they have complained publicly and nCM withdrew their Director, against his personal wishes.

So...in a world where the copper supply/demand balance is fgoing to get much tighter, would these companies have bought and/or retained a significant stake in SOLG with one of the biggest Tier 1 copper/gold prospects in the world and possibly others waiting to be exploited/discovered...

And yes it does look like prospective buyers are sat on the sidelines waiting to see what happens, because while Peru burns and Chile has created an unfavourable economic environment for miners, Ecuador looks stable and seems to be the next Chile.

And there are 20 or more 'players' that already have a footprint in Ecuador.

In fact you could make a credible case for BHP, NCM, Newmont, Fortescue, Lundin, Jiangxi, Mitsui, Ecuacorrientes and Explorcobre (both Chinese owned), Mitsubishi, Codelco, as well as Luminex, Solaris, Lumina, Dundee and a whole host of others...

Which is why I'm convinced that unless its a 'knockout bid' (110p or more?) the first bid will trigger a takeover battle.

Then the only decision you will have to make is when and how much to sell...

I've sent Fawzi three emails in the last two days...not even the courtesy of an acknowledgement...

On the money again DBW...

Somebody rolled over 97k 15.31 into 15.36...must be optimistic...

SM...would you still say that if SOLG is sold for a decent price in the next few months and GGP is left 'holding the baby' while NCM is sucked into Newmont...?

Try this Bozi:

""This merger transaction makes sense for both sets of shareholders. The merger allows our shareholders to maintain exposure to the world class Cascabel Project and is a step towards maximizing value. Having considered the landscape, we are convinced that combining forces with SolGold will unlock significant value for all shareholders. The strategic review for the combined group aligns with our views on the best path forward. "

It wouldn't surprise me if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat...