Putting a base value on Cascabel...16 Nov 2023 18:06
Even before PFS3, under PFS2, Cascabel will produce 7.6 million ounces of gold...
Wheaton Precious Metals, in May 2023 agreed to pay Lumina Gold (an Ecuador gold/copper project), $300m for 6.6% of the first 700,000 ounces of gold and 4.4% of the remaining 400,000 ounces...
That values the gold alone at $5.172 Billion, based on the then price of $2,000/oz.
$300m/700x6.6 + 400 x 4.4/1100
The Osisko deal in December 2022 valued the ``cascabel gold alone at $8.333 Billion, which was an absolute steal but SOLG has a buyback option.
The actual Gross value of Lumina's gold production is £2.187 billion...
The actual Gross value of the Cascabel gold production is 7.6moz x $1988 at current prices...i.e.$15.109 billion
However, applying the WPM/Lumina metrics to Cascabel gives a Gross value of $300m x 7.6/1.1 / 5.8%, i.e.$35.737 Billion.
The Gross value of the Copper production at current prices is $23.751 Billion
So, based on PFS2 ore productions, the total Gross value of the copper and gold production is $59.5 Billion
Given the widely held view that the Silver sales even at $19 cover the total costs of mining all the ore, and assuming still a LOM of 26 years and a discount rate of 8%, an approximate NPV of Cascabel can be calculated as:
0.3382530766 x 59.5 = $20 Billion or £5.41 a share....
Now I'm more than ready for the clever people on here to correct my calculations, but to repeat...
The Lumina deal values the Cascabel gold alone at $35.737 Billion Gross, i.e. £9.60/share undiscounted...
So IMO all we need is for WPM, Glencore, Yamana FNV or Trafigura to posit a similar deal to the Lumina ECUADOR gold streaming deal and the shares will fly, or...
It will scare any interested parties into bidding for Solgold...
I wonder what Scott has up his sleeve before the AGM...?