Member Info for Matml74

This is not efficacy.

It means that this trial will have a 90% probability of detecting an effect, given that the effect is really there.

To increase the probability to a higher level would need significantly more subjects in the trial.

Basically the point being made here is that despite the reduction in trial numbers by 300 the trial design is still going to give 90% chance of detecting the effect of SNG001 .i.e 90% of the time, we would get a statistically significant difference between the SNG001 and placebo groups.

Exactly. Very few shares in issue here. Price will be above placing in very near future.

invest that in production now!

I don't think too many people having time off this Christmas unfortunately Joey.
UK weekly new hospitalisations were 12,000 over the past week an increase of 20% on the week previous.

Yes crazy that this is still at this level really. The FDA is all over this and will give EUA at earliest opportunity. 600 patients will be treated in very quick time.

Why would anyone go on a board they are not invested in and tell them they are not investing. Surely you have a better life to live.

There really are some imbeciles out there. My filter bin is loving the rise as well.

I don't think anyone was referring to SNG 'planning' a takeover. There have been people taking about takeovers the past few weeks, during the doldrums, sun pharma etc etc etc. Infact people been on about it since the 20th July.

It is good to see there is a plan being put in place to bring the drug to market mid next year on a large scale.

"It also suggests a takeover is unlikely... "

It really does seem that way now doesn't it. Looking at manufacturing processes to produce millions of doses a month. Obviously demand from governments is large and they believe they can get this done themselves. Brilliant stuff.

"Blow-Fill-Seal (BFS) is an advanced, aseptic liquid packaging technology, whereby product containers are formed, filled and sealed in a matter of seconds through a continuous and automated process."

Must be planning on making a few doses of this stuff then.!

Nice one J-CIT.

Boyg,

That’s a pretty unusual statement. You do understand you can get a statistically significant result from that sample size? A statistically significant result would indicate that the observed effect is not down to chance. The phase 2 trial had a number of results that were statistically significant. So the number of 48 is meaningless unless put in context. N =48 with no statistical significance would not justify approval of course, and maybe N =48 with significant result but no other evidence doesn’t deserve approval either as cohort is too small.

However if you combine this result with the following:

Safety: 250 odd patients that have taken this drug and it has been proven safe over 3 phase 2 trials over many years.

Interferons: evidence that interferon response, or lack thereof, is one of the reasons that covid is causing havoc and killing a proportion of those infected with covid.

Now as a governing agency who is put in charge to protect the health of a nation, in the middle of the worst pandemic in 100 years, does the potential benefit of using an interferon based drug that has statistically proven 79% efficacy with no obvious safety issues outweigh the risk of using such drug.

It is funny that all vaccines have been authorised on this basis ie. the benefits of taking the vaccine outweigh the risk. At present we don’t really know the long term benefit and as we have seen there are risks for certain people being vaccinated.

IMO at this stage of the pandemic the benefit of using SNG001 far outweighs the risks based on more than just the phase 2 efficacy and it really is a travesty that the MHRA and other governing bodies appear not to be assessing risk/benefit it in this way.

Big, didn't see it on LSE

There was a love in on the board today and the positive vibes had a direct influence on the positive direction of the share price.

Personally, I think the shorts have given up and we are headed back to 110-120 range where we were after the vaccine drop until further news.

HL offering will take 100k @ 106.

good summary @spinnaker.

Really Chris? I personally don't think there is a chance in hell the board will sell this company for less than 2 billion.

If we do some math on sales required to justify current map with some very conservative numbers based on what we have been told (say $1000 per treatment at a 30% margin to SNG and P/E of x5).

20,0000 treatments per month (1/5th of proposed monthly production) would get us MCAP 350M on a PE x5.
40,0000 treatments per month (2/5th of proposed monthly production) would get us MCAP 720M on a PE x5.

I find it hard to see how the board could justify a sales price less than £2/3 billion to it's shareholders based on the production numbers proposed by RM and funded through the placement by shareholders. Remember all shareholders bought into that placement on the numbers proposed by SNG and will expect adequate return for that investment based on what was put in front of them.

Exactly. Absolutely nonsensical statement.

Don’t get them started HC!

"if SNG haven't received their nebulisers to cover the UK trial by now and already distributed them to the 20 hospitals in the Phase 3 Trial then that would be a huge error of judgement on their part. I cannot believe they would let themselves fall into the trap of such a basic error..."

Firstly if you read the RNS they are using stock from Rentscheler to start the trial which they already have.

Why make stuff up that hasn't happened or may never happen? If you are unhappy with your investment sell. But at least base that decision on some actual facts not something you have made up in your head.

RM said Q4 start in the RNS.

Big, You have no idea or not if they received an offer. No one does. I get your ****ed at the delays but that statement is just bull**** unless you have some inside info.

"Does anyone get the feeling the trial has been put on hold until the vaccine has been rolled out or something else has happened?"

No. Have you seen any other treatment trials put on hold for covid vaccine roll out?

Some timelines for you.

Phase 3 announced 14th October.
The company received approval at general meeting and funds 2nd November.

Yesterday was 2 months since the P3 trial fund raise was announced. FDA IND takes a month after submission which we can assume wasn't submitted until the company new they were getting all the funds required.

The red tape to run one of the trials is immense. If we get started 'imminently' as suggested today then the company will have done extremely well.