focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I've held a few of these before the big rise but couldn't resist a top-up before the results as a £60m m/cap looks far too low for a Company that is set to take market share in massive addressable markets The diagnostic testing sector is an area I like as there is no need for years of clinical trials or even FDA approval. The likes of AGL show that when companies in this sector move they can make big moves fast.
Thanks Krull, the Company is almost one of those stocks that looks too good to be true and some, of course, are on AIM, but in this instance, it looks like breakeven sometime next year will be delivered and then it is going to be a real cash cow, with a seemingly endless supply of revenue from multiple testing sectors.
Slide 14 from their November presentation shows 13 addressable markets and specifies the product development portfolio that includes colorectal cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, veterinary medicine and AMS (Motor Neurone Disease). Then they specify addressable markets such as lung cancer, melanoma, breast cancer, autism severity ... and the list goes on.
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_0e5e76377c53bf35676d02844d5ec865/oxfordbiodynamics/db/2553/24445/pdf/Oxford+BioDynamics+Company+Presentation+Nov+08+2023.pdf
Cheers Aquae, that's great. Just bought here after listening to the CEO who speaks very compellingly. I did read in one announcement that the proposed acquisition already has a sales channel to the NHS which, if I have read it right, bodes well for increasing sales for AxisBiotix-Ps . Any idea on the possible multinationals who would specifically be interested in AxisBiotix-PS and rolling out associated products such as shampoos? Unilever is probably the obvious stand-out candidate.
I would have liked to have seen SBTX announce the part 1 results for oral but it's good that the results were 'excellent'. I assume the multinationals want to see a larger study. Given this study will take 12 months it intrigues me even more what is anticipated in terms of delivery.
Ah thanks Elric that clarifies things!
Interesting that Tom Winnifrith is slating BELL because they will need funds to deliver a substantive order. In contrast, he has been pumping a stock he holds Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) which will have to raise before the end of this year. They burn about £3m and have next to zero revenues.
BELL have guaranteed and substantial orders unlike SBTX who, if they don't raise, are relying on getting a licensing deal is unlikely in the extreme as they won't have completed consumer testing. Not a position the markets will like but does TW raise as an issue of concern - not in the slightest. Complete double standards. Looks like he might be helping out some shorting pals who have an obvious short position in BELL based on their posts on the other site. They will have to unwind at some stage.
Is obtaining funding on AIM right now easy? Not necessarily but much easier for a Company with a high-demand USP commercial product and significant accompanying orders (BELL) compared to TW's stock, SBTX, which will have to raise this year and currently has less revenue than a struggling corner shop. Shameful journalism in my view.
Frankly, I have little interest in persuading a Tom Winnifrith lakey of the obvious merits of a company you are posting about, both frantically and desperately, under orders. Nonetheless, if nothing else, good manners necessitate I pay lip service to provide you with a few basic facts.
Wyld Networks (46% owned by Tern) will be integral to enabling internet coverage for the 85% of the globe that doesn't have that option. Tern's 46% will be worth a fortune. Sit back and weep as significant contracts roll in as Wyld embarks on commercialisation and exponential growth in revenues.
Fundamantal VR (Tern hold 27%) can advance competence in surgery and additional clinical environments to improve patient outcomes. What price do you pay for that? It's a fact that this company leads the way in its field and has little competition. It's a prime candidate for an IPO or takeover.
Device Authority (53% held by Tern) is the overall leader, top innovator and top implementor in IoT Device Lifecycle Management. Just look at its prestigious clients and target markets. It's a target, as are the likes of FVR and Wyld Networks, as you grudgingly acknowledge.
Tern shares are undoubtedly under accumulation as, unlike the Pires junk, it not only has sought-after investments but has substantial stakes in them. Any predator looking at the three companies mentioned will target Tern first but will still have to pay a multiple of the current share price. 50p is about £210 m/cap and if things move quickly that's the figure I would anticipate. If Tern can hold off then significantly more is likely as the growth for the three companies is only going up and, at some stage, exponentially.
As the portfolio companies advance (which even a misanthrope like TW and his groupies must surely acknowledge), the prospects of Tern's share price multiplying from a low base look highly likely. Any market observer can see the overhang of shares has gone, and momentum is gathering pace.
I bought in the placing, so when you refer to 'recovering losses', you are factually incorrect, which is the recurring theme in the rest of your posts. I bought in the placing and more, both below the placing price and slightly above.
Something is happening in the background, and I'd anticipate a portfolio update and some significant positive news. That will disappoint you, but there is nothing you or TW can do about it. Tern will, of course, be traded heavily as it advances from current lows, but those who hold their stock should see the best rewards. I see Tern multi-bagging from the placing price in reasonably short order. DYOR.
Looks like there is some accumulation being done as discreetly as possible but the window is closing for that approach, and I expect a sharp move this week. They may not like it, but the TW lackeys won't be able to hold back. It's not rocket science; with all the portfolio companies doing extremely well, especially Wyld, DA and FVR, it's no surprise that there are interested parties eyeing up Tern as a cheap means of acquiring significant stakes, given it holds at least two and possibly 3 unicorns.
The positive is that the conversion price is 11p, and good news (which is surely coming) will dictate the market cap and propel the share price higher toward the Cenkos buy target figure and hopefully beyond.
As a general rule, I don't like convertibles, as the loan holders can play around with the stock going long and short to make a quick buck. Even if the conversion price is higher, then administrators of the convertible can still short, knowing that they can cover and the loss is not unlimited - as is the case without a convertible. They have the fire power with the volume of shares to play if they choose to.
I am not saying that is happening here, as it appears to be a temporary Lombard housekeeping exercise. I am just saying it can and does happen, and I don't like convertibles. I've even been to a meeting with a company with a convertible loan (many years back) with a presentation from their convertible provider, Citadel. The Citadel shark (sorry, representative) wanted to pay a small fee to borrow shares from other retail shareholder attendees and me to enable them to short the stock. The guy even drew a two steps up one step down chart to emphasise that it wouldn't impact the uptrend. Needless to say, we all rejected their offer.
I am not saying the administrators of the convertible here will do that, but it's often how they operate.
Ultimately though, value will out, and good news or even a predator approach will reward the patient, IMO. The Cenkos note says the Magna investment and loan changes everything, so, despite my reservations about convertibles, their research-based 24.3p target is what really counts. I am just highlighting one possible reason for a little turbulence along the way
Yes, quite possibly a switch between funds by the same ultimate holder.
My screen is showing circa 740m shares traded from a total of 4.15 billion in issue, which is just under 18% unless there are some duplicate error trades, as is sometimes the case
Close to 20% of a £270m m/cap company traded within a day is very significant. Clearly, someone has eagerly snapped up the stock in pre-arranged transactions. It would be good to hear a strategic investor has taken a stake (that would fire up the share price) but in reality, it's likely to be more mundane. Regardless, it's likely to be an interesting run-up to Christmas with the prospect of a lucrative aviation deal and increased clarity on the key figures.
The note specifies that Magna is a game changer and states that they believe SEE has the "most competitive solution in the market."
They believe that the value of the tech and market position is "multiples of the current share price" and that "Seeing Machines is really a global technology unicorn that its share price belies."
An emphatic endorsement from a respected broker.
Nasdaq listings aren't cheap, so it would be useful to retain some cash from an aviation licence. The Cenkos broker note highlighted Nasdaq was where SEE are heading:- "With a Nasdaq listing as a likely next step and obvious parallels to the success of Mobile eye ..."
A Nasdaq listing almost certainly brings a significant re-rating, and SEE would be listed alongside Mobileye.
U.S. investors have a hard time investing in UK-listed stocks with punitive and onerous tax issues. Sometimes ADR's are created to provide U.S. investors with an opportunity to invest in UK shares. I don't think there are any ADR's for SEE.
So, if SEE does list, it will be interesting to see the extent of a re-rating and, who knows, Cenkos's 25p target might come sooner than anticipated. A lucrative aviation license might trigger a listing, or they might wait for an upturn in tech sentiment in the U.S.
Thanks for the clarification CTW.
HW, good luck with TRAC and your investments too. No intention of moving on (although this will be a final post here) as TRAC will remain on my watch list. I agree there are plenty of small caps and medium market caps that are risky and right now it's not a good time to raise funds.
As you rightly point out there is significant potential reward with TRAC as well as risk.
Without financial stability, however, I don't think large companies like DHL will do a significant deal. Properly financed I think they will. How to do that without excessive dilution is the conundrum.
I anticipate TRAC will have to do a funding this year, and I will build a position then. If they do a genuinely mega deal with upfront payments rather than a deceptive and hyped distributorship deal then the stock will soar of course. In these markets it's not easy to get funds without heavy dilution, I prefer to sit on the sidelines or invest in fully funded small-cap companies that have plenty of reward but less risk. They do exist but dyor. The likes of TRT spring to mind but no stock is without risk, and I don't differentiate between AIM and fully listed 'dubious' small caps such as MXC.
In the absence of a new licensing deal with cash, how do you think they will get by this year without a raise based on their cash position? Genuinely interested in how you think they will do it. TRAC may well have done well with the dollar/Shekel exchange rate as they made a $400,000 gain in the interims. Can that be repeated? Possibly. As ever investors should do their own in-depth research and form their own judgement. These boards are good for discussing both bear and bull points and TRAC is an unusual stock in that it has potential risk and reward at the extreme end. A funding cancels out most of the risk element.
HM, unless they have announced to the market that revenues will start earlier in a revised trading update, then it has to be this rns that stands - particularly as no earlier revised timescales were detailed in the interims after the LATAM deal was announced:-
"Hardware sales and revenues are expected to commence from the beginning of 2023 and materially increase from 2024 as larger volume orders are delivered."
It looks like it will be minimal initial revenues to start in Q1 2023 and then, all being well, ramping up in 2024. So I think they need to sort out their balance sheet before then to cover losses for this year and probably the first half of 2023 and then potentially move onto profit as revenues from LATAM build. It looks to be hardware and some software relating to Lokies that is the revenue driver. I know they want to get recurring revenues and have a goal of providing containers for free in an effort to achieve SAAS revenues. It's obviously not viable for them to do that until they start getting significant revenues in.
I think TRAC need a decent contract with DHL or another party to get the share price up and then they can get funding away. I think the £925k loan is convertible at a higher share price which is a positive. TRAC has been very good at dressing up unnamed distributorships as massive revenue-producing contracts with no word of progression since, and they have lost credibility in my eyes for doing that.
The market, aside from being currently poor generally and especially for cash-strapped companies, is wise to that now and will adopt a 'show me' approach prior to any re-rating in my view. They need substance, not hype. So many big names have been bandied about (Philip Morris, United Nations etc.) without progressing, so now they just need to announce solid contracts with early-stage revenues attached.
The Company has the potential to be very successful, but IMO they need to raise some cash and then take advantage of any competitive edge they have with Lokies before competitors catch up. With TRAC there is always the potential for a blockbuster and substantive re-rating, but the dire financials mean that there is plenty of risk in the risk/reward assessment.
Thanks, DR777, yes I did listen to the presentation by PM and was highly impressed and added after listening. I've learned over the years that great tech also needs excellent management with skin in the game to succeed. PM, SEE's technology and its market-leading position fit that criteria.
AIM listed ITM (never been invested) is a prime example where good technology coupled with poor management doesn't reward shareholders. They had a circa £3b m/cap at one stage with minimal revenues and high cash burn. Market conditions are different now but I believe SEE can follow that valuation path over time but, in this instance, the Company value will be one of growth unless of course it's taken out via acquisition.
Whether the market wakes up on AIM remains to be seen, and it may take a Nasdaq listing although it may be advisable to wait for the end of the bear market before listing. From the Cenkos note:-
"A Nasdaq listing is a likely next step, and obvious parallels to the success of MobileEye."
"We see the stock as a 22 year old proven-technology unicorn."
One of those rare small-cap tech companies that has produced stellar results in a bear market.
No need for funds, increasing royalties from Bridgestone for years to come, the SAW technology starting to take off with increased revenues and a Company share buyback scheme. Significant upside looks nailed on based on those factors, but how much depends on how SAW takes off. Early signs bode well.
I see Cenkos leads the pack with a 25p target.
After the Magna deal and this comment, they are anticipating a significantly higher share price than the initial 25p target over a longer term:-
"We view this deal as a poignant marker on what is likely to be a steep trajectory over the next few years to Seeing Machines becoming a multi-billion dollar technology company."
On my watch list but only a buy post any funding or money upfront licensing agreement. Cash is an issue. I see they have a £935,000 convertible loan, but I don't think they have tapped into this? They have done well with the dollar / Israeli shekel exchange rate, but I assume they will need funding fairly soon based on the last set of results or, alternatively, they will use the convertible:-
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning
of the period 1,534
Cash and cash equivalents at the end
of the period 311