Member Info for marve

i would think of it like this lol

if a burning bonfire is the weekly highs and lows variance, the more wood on the bonfire the stronger it burns, the less wood the more subtle, then the placing rns was petrol been thrown on the bonfire

just the weekly cycle, although my prices are a naturally rough estimates

remember last week we started in the 80s, peaked at £1.38 early in the week, tested £1.08 new base and finished the week in the £1.30s

so maybe without the placing this week we might have tested the low £2s but found a new base and finished the week mid £2 ish

an interesting discussion would be, lets say the placing rns never arrived, and that no other news came this week

what do we think we would be trading at...

my expectation is we would have peaked just over £3 but at some point we would have hit the peak, then how far would it drop to find its base...

im going to go as far as saying it might have found its base somewhere in the mid to low £2 region, maybe touched £2.30 at some point

remember the weekly high last week was £1.40 and it found its base at approximately £1.10

this is all it is doing, the big the company gets, the more volatile the price movement seems, without an rns we would have definitely had some sort of swing

everyone in from 30p or so has seen this, find its new high, then find its new base, rinse and repeat for the last 4 weeks

at end of today i will post up the weekly movements like have done before, the highs and the lows

we are still very much in the upward trend

£30m gross profit per month, lovely, lets have some of that

agree with the comment what other costs will be deducted from gross profit to leave net profit, however there is not going to suddenly be £30m of monthly overheads which appear out of thin air

Think it is time for another one of these, just to show what the potential is here in the coming weeks and months

From January (pre coronavirus):

GDR, £7m to £70m - increase of £63m (i have included the expected placing shares)
ODX, £22m to £89m - increase of £67m
AVCT, £31m to £232m - increase of £201m
NCYT, £12m to £281m - increase of £269m

NCYT are the only one selling tests, GDR have the product ready and all being well plan to start selling the tests by the end of the month, ODX dont have a finalised product yet, AVCT seem to be a mix of GDR and ODX in that they have things developed but also working on others

at the current £1.60 share price we are 3 times less than AVCT market cap and 4 times less than NCYT

in effective, GDR massively undervalued for what is to come, this volatility is short term madness - but it happens, thats life

because on 1 May we were told the test product was complete - that is a major milestone achieved

we were then told a day later that the hep c test got world health approval - that is another major achievement

both these two events are huge, you could say both of them de risk the company as a whole, just a case of getting both tests on sale now (as long as we get ce mark approval)

gdr is definitely in its own short term world at the moment, is cant see the wood for the trees the right analogy...

next week we will potentially be 1 week away from product launch

what price will we be at the end of the month when we are actively selling our testing kits, thats all that matters to me

trying to be perfect on the daily peaks and troughs will drive you nuts

radley, none of us know bigbench, cant go judging somebody else

his mate is likely more than just some passing acquaintance

Indeed, NCYT had a window of volatility, and we are right in the middle of ours

1 May rns saying product complete should never have come out while a placing was being worked on

However the company is racing to get everything done, there shouldn't be mishaps but maybe that is life

End of May they will be selling their test kits, I can't get any placing shares so have decided to top up, then patiently wait for end of month

Not going to entertain the posts about this going to 80p, why, because what marker cap would we be at that, like £36m

Are you kidding me, a company about to launch a world first testing kit to the market, let's forget ODX are valued near £100m and have no product, AVCT are £200m and have no product, NCYT are over £250m and are the only company selling tests

Yeah, a £36m market cap for us with a ready to sell test must be right...lol

The placing is pants, ends up being mates rates, but there is far too much focus on the short term, this placing is not the bigger picture

My honest opinion, yes balls up PR wise

My honest opinion, company has a massive future

My honest opinion, yes no more PR mishaps please

You acknowledged all 3 in your post, so let's focus on the positives going forward

Get this week out the way and then focus back on opetational news

By next week we will potentialy only be 7 days or so away from ce mark and product launch and all that

We have so much more news to come too, wait till we see who the buyers are of the 8m institution shares, I expect these to be long term holders that we are currently involved with, just look at BGF taking up a huge chunk, not a quick flipper using GDR like a cheap brothel

Directors might regret order of events, when they started working on placing did they know the hep c test approval was about to be signed off, at £2 Monday night when rns came out should they have suspended and made sure no trading before placing announcement, but any pre warning of a placing to shareholders might have spooked the market (short term impact again just like we are seeing)

So yes they might have been able to play it better, but we just have to move on with it

I am a holder from low prices, who topped up along the way, my broker won't let me put a application in and I don't have spare cash in time to put in any other account, do I feel hard done by, well I could do, but just have to crack on

What I will say is if we drop anywhere close to the placing price, I will pile in soon as I can

This placing has truly caused unnecessary volatility, not only in the share price, but also for new investors confidence in the company and the market as a whole

In weeks to come the historic share price graph won't show any of sort of drop off, this is unfortunately a short term thing

For those new investors starting to question what is going on, remember why you invested

UK didn't meet it's testing target again today, there is no significant drop off in infections and deaths, testing is going to be around for a long time, whether we find a vaccine in the next 12 month's or not, sport wants to come back but is struggling, people need to go back to work sooner rather than later and track and trace is only be trialled

This isn't a light switch where all suddenly goes back to normal overnight, life will not be back to what we see as normal for a long time

The current market is looking at GDR and it's placing impact, but in a few weeks time we should be launching our product, we should start to generate significant revenue, this has the potential to transform the company, and that does not include our hepatitis C test that just got world health approval

Potential short term pain and frustration but long term gain

The daily market just reacts to the short term impacts, it is what it is

CE mark update, product launch and orders is my guess for RNS pre the placement shares arriving on market at end of month

if any placing shares are sold mop them up quick

plus that also looks after the big guy too (not like he has not had enough lol), no point the placing shares going on market before news has sent us higher

price just milling about, like it did in past weeks where it found its new high, then found its new base, before its onward move as the days and weeks pass

patience peeps

hey Ethio pal

it was simply shocking, i cant deny that, ignoring the product it makes you think about the people in charge, so i know what you mean

but looking forward, as you have said, once it settles and finds its base ready for the next stage it will likely move in readiness for product launch