Member Info for Marunam2

you're a better man than me as I did not expect it at this time .
It does mean that FIG were happy / assured that this lengthy extension was justified. otherwise why tie up the project till 2022 ??.
I may be wrong, the rns wording does not say that Navitas were involved in the discussions with FIG, current joint venture partners are RKH and PMO / Harbour .
RNS also made quite clear the current license interest stands at 40% of the Sealion area.

Steve012,
Yes it is interesting that such a large part of the portfolio gets no mention.
3 Billion EXTRA shares coming into play at 8p on completion of the merger, that is going to cause Harbour some headaches as it surely will create a lot of volatility. Those shares at 8 p will give a massive return to the creditors. Hence i got out at a small profit, only to see it hit 30.

LSE,
I was going to post about having a no reply to the question of the wind down cost for Sealion.
Now I know why , lol

License extended with discussion with Harbour.
Long extension as well !!!

Rockhopper Exploration plc

05 March 2021

5 March 2021

Rockhopper Exploration plc

("Rockhopper" or the "Company")

Extension of North Falkland Basin Petroleum Licences

Rockhopper Exploration plc (AIM: RKH), the oil and gas exploration and production company with key interests in the North Falkland Basin, is pleased to announce that, following discussions between the joint venture partners, Harbour Energy and the Falkland Islands Government ("FIG"), FIG has agreed to extend each of the Company's North Falkland Basin Petroleum Licences, including the Sea Lion Discovery Area, until 1 November 2022, with no additional licence commitments. The Licences were previously due to expire on 1 May 2021.

Samuel Moody, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"The Company is grateful to the Falkland Islands Government for the extension of its North Falkland Basin licence interests and continued support of the Sea Lion project.

The proposed merger of Premier Oil and Chrysaor to create Harbour Energy brings a financially stronger operator to the project. This, combined with the proposed entry of Navitas Petroleum to Sea Lion, creates a solid operational and financial foundation giving the project the strongest possible chance of progressing."

Notes

Brent at $67pbo does mean a lot to the Sealion Project economics .
It was / is Profitable at $55pbo poo, at $67pbo poo it is making a very "compelling" case .

With no production to speak of , RKH wont rise and fall as other producers do, it does however make Sealion investable at current POO.
With a LOF ( life of field costs ) at between $36 pbl to $38pbl ( my estimate ) , then at nearly £30 pbo gain it is up there with Exxon's fields in Suriname as an example for LOF. That's NOT adding Phase 2 and other follow up's to that.
Don't forget Harbour want International exposure and their parent company specialise in infrastructure projects investment.
This is a massive long term prospect for them at what is now becoming relatively low cost to comparable assets and if UKEF come on board they can count on GB Govt' clout not to mention their American parent company.

IF FIG were to defer royalties for 10 to 12 months after first oil , then it's a no brainer.
STRONG BUY imo.

As an oil investor, thank you OPEC.

Till the end of April with no cuts , Saudi if keeps up the 1mbpd cut on top of that, I cannot see POO being $60pbo for 3 months minimum.

This should exercise the minds of any nay sayers here and on the Harbour board. Also any company looking to invest in a FID ready project as earning for companies ballon.

Would be nice if this was all wrapped up by March end, so I can go and play 3 to 4 rounds a week, would like it to be 7 rounds but takes a too much recovery after long hours at the 19th hole.

LSe,
I will do and report back any reply.
If as you say the costs are not that high then that is great news for RKH.

LSE,

That is the point I was trying to make, that Harbour would have no cards left to re examine the deal with RKH with the threat of withdrawing IF RKH are able to fulfil any windown costs due to them without dilution to shareholders that is more than welcome to me.
I give the figures in the previous post as an example , but I take your point re asking the company themselves re wind down costs, but expect no reply tbh.

I wonder what the Sealion wind down cost would be.
$20m, $40m ,$60m or more ??.

Say on the plus side RKH get the award in their favour to the tune of say $50m NETT.
Their share would be 40% as it currently stands without Navitas signing on ?

So what I'm asking is , IF they get a nett award of anything over $30m then if wind down costs come in at say $40m - $60m then their share is covered and they can retain the full license including all the work done till now , that is if IF Harbour pull out ( unlikely imo ) .
So what I'm getting at is the chance that Sealion winds down with an award that covers RKH's wind down cost would be removed and in fact makes their position stronger in any negotiations .

Anything in the region of a $25 - $50m award would a game changer.

Yes i did well to come out of PMO and into here , doh.

LTT: I suspect that the Arbitration lawyers fee would be part of the % agreement with the funder, after all they pay for any cost and time overuns ,as is the case here.

Must be close as "early 2021" would be Q1 I would have thought.

For disclosure I bought some more today with PMO proceeds.

At $64 pbo, if they want the bonanza of this and UKEF to fund just under 50% of it , they will have to get a move on.
It's a no brainer for them with the combined income from the new business, tax credit in the billions and scavenging creditors no longer in charge.

This is really cheap imo ,for how long ? , when any hint of Sealion going ahead or not and OM in play.

Today will see the PMO creditors rubber stamp the merger with their approval.
I'm out of PMO today , let's hope that this agreement free's up news/negotiations from elsewhere in PMO /HE.
The visit to the High court on 17th march ? , is just a formality.

LTT,
Hence I will be piling into oil stocks during this year, I can see a supply crunch coming next year set up by summer / winter this year.
By Summer the American driving season will be in full swing and people going on holidays , cause they finally can and life as we used to know it coming nearly back to normal.

Where will the oil come from in 2 years time at the demand level at that time and at what cost to the consumer ?

Sealion will get the go ahead I'm sure of it ,HE are part of a massive energy fund. They will have top of the line investors and market people that will be looking long term, not just this year and they got PMO on the cheap.

How many people are going to be able to afford a £40000 car after living through a pandemic that's affected their jobs and their income ? It's a massive investment for working people .

I wonder how much free flow cash per day Chrysoar and PMO are generating at $60pbo - $64pbo compared to when they agreed the deal on 6th October when the POO was $41.27pbo ???

If memory serves , Durrant said $35pbo breakeven for PMO when POO was below $40pbo during the severe POO downturn.
A couple of months from now it could still be hovering here ($60pbo range ) as the pandemic gets tackled gradually.

Imagine if ICSID were running the trains !!, ridiculous.

What's to say if Harbour secure another partner before the completion of the merger that they don't bring agree terms ?
They were able to block Navitas , so the reverse is also possible.

Ovets,
Your last few post have been spot on with what I'm thinking .
Some are saying that Harbour would be better off buying assets from the majors , but POO at now $60pbo , how much more would they ask for them compared to $50pbo ?
UKEF would fund near half the loan of what they need, Vendors somewhere near 20% - 25% .
With the merger the cash flow from the current production at $60 would be significant. To buy assets that generate 40,000bpo a day , how much would it cost them . Look what ENQ paid for their recent asset purchase.
They like to be the operator , they may not get that with any asset they buy unless it's big and then we go back to the cost of such an asset.

Are Harbour going to look at $600m - $800m spread over the next 2 to 3 years as an obstacle to prevent Sealion.
In addition look at the follow up assets to Sealion and the numerous exploration leads on top of that.
This will go ahead imo because it would be Govt' backed, great tax regime , long term production with follow up phases and infrastructure in place because of Sealion.
FIG and Harbour will be trading , but the license renewal will thankfully force the issue for RKH holders one way or the other.
Harbour will be trying to find a bigger partner or go it alone with RKH.
Navitas could be left in the wind unless Harbour cant find another partner.
Argentina are not going to be a factor re any military action, they have done as much as they can to make trading difficult for FI, but that is all priced in for me, what can they do more to make things worse for FI, bar military action which they are unfit for.

Once the merger is complete, Harbour will have to notify material news in a timely manner to LSE , that I believe is good for RKH shareholders, they cannot put out wishy washy intentions or stay mum. A look at their presentation on their wedsite re the merger highlights how material Sealion is in their portfolio as a development/ future producing asset.
Hope they and FIG are using this time to dot the I's and the T's as UKEF application time is running out.