Member Info for Marunam2

OR, Navitas now sign up,if FIG have approved their entry already, both a win win for RKH.
OM arbitration to come as well.

Fecm,
Expect they will sign or not when merger is completed as the message previously was that signing will occur when PMO finance was sorted.

Previously, yesterday in fact, I felt that Navitas held some power over Sealion , would they sign or not, being the main question.
IF, as we expect this merger to go through, I would think the roles are reversed re who is holding the bargaining chips.
IF Navitas pull out, PMO / Cryasoar get Navitas's share and hold 70% of all acreage in that deal.
70% of a FEED ready project is a mighty big incentive for anyone, considering that a large chunk(25% ?) of the debt was from Sealion activities through the years,e.g farmin, exploration, FEED costs , FIG investment etc.

Three major banks have financed the merger and it would be unbelieveable that every asset was not throughly looked over, some due diligence would have taken place and would be shocked if they don't see it as a valuable asset that is available to grow in a fiscal and regulatory stable environment.

Navitas and their backers on the other hand will feel that the game has changed with the merger and their main financial partner is no longer liable to fold as was the case with PMO and their creditors . As soon as the merger completes in November, I now expect that Navitas will have to sign or will be shoved out by the new entity to get back the 30% they offered Navitas.
By which time the arbitration result could be in and ANY reasonable sum will lift RKH and any subsequent opportunistic bid well above today .

Much stronger position today than yesterday for RKH,IMO.

PMO sunk well over half a billion ££ into Sealion, the project is ready subject to finance.... well these guys have deep pockets, didn't flinch at PMO's debt and are not going to let go of a FID ready asset if they now finance most of it themselves. The export credit agency may now not be looking at significantly reduced loan and once POO is on the rise, and it will next year at some stage when the vaccine is sorted, the project is a no brainer when you include the other acreage with proven oil.

Algo's kicked in at 5.89 - 6.05.

No finance issue for sealion now surely, Sealion finance part from premier sorted, PIM submitted and Navitas to sign up to come on board, oh yes OM payout on top would be very nice.

If not all that, then a bid for the RKH for the lot now on .

The last hearing : October 30, 2019 The Tribunal holds a hearing on post-hearing briefs in Paris.

Accoring to the article using ICSID data:
The number of Days between last day of hearing and award :
Medium : 330 days
Mean : 379 days.

This may explain the time taken. Though it is somewhat old , it still seems to be valid going by RKH's case.
The time is fast approaching for a decision going by this article.

The last hearing : October 30, 2019 The Tribunal holds a hearing on post-hearing briefs in Paris.

https://vannin.com/press/pdfs/18-2-16_How_long_is_too_long_to_wait_for_an_award_.pdf

"The covid situation is causing delays" seems an an odd expression to me.

I would think that it may be that one of the arbitors has covid and is recovering ,hence the delay.
If that is the case , then the alternative would be that they bring in a new arbitor/ chairman, which may mean an even longer wait as he sifts through all the evidence for these past 3/ 4 years .

Does explain why UOG was held back.

That is cracking news for Sealion that approval process has started. There are always costs involved in these processes and in these times particulary, so definate intent to follow through on the farmin by Navitas. Significant for Sealion going ahead.
Should know soon, which augurs well with oil inventory / supply slowly starting to balance out.

Some fair points Cyan, re current situation in the absence of news from the company.
Used to be a time when their RNS were detailed and full of information, allowed the more learned to "educate " the BB on many technical points. Sadly the current company news and lack of progress has driven many away.

OM: I am still of the opinion that this delay is down to an agreement being negotiated between the parties.
ICSID timelines have been exceeded and they surely have to announce the reason publicly if it is due to them causing the delay. So many cases in arbitration get withdrawn before final judgement and the parties settle .
Italy has a lot to lose IF they lose this case at arbitration, it was reported that numerous other Oil companies are waiting on the outcome to see if they will also file for arbitration. The cost to the state to defend these cases will mount and a settlement allows them to muddy the waters for companies seeking arbitration.
Conversely, IF a settlement is ongoing then for RKH it means that they will not have to go chasing the money through courts and I suspect lose more of their share.
Harbour the funders and King and Spalding the arbitor lawyers are top notch in their field, if they cannot win they no one will. No win no fee is an expensive route and the time taken will have elevated the costs , which i presume they will also seek.
The company board have been weak and gluttonous and have brought the company to its knees.
A world class proven field , feed ready asset, sits idle after all these years, it is their lack of corporate responsibility that has brought them and the company here.
Like RKH , FIG have to be realistic and use the financial tools to bring the cost to below $40. There are many other assets after Sealion that they can claw back the "shortfall " from Sealion.
If the US dont get their act together , and it seems they aren't ,then covid related shutdowns will drag POO back to lower levels, which will not help anyone in the oil business.
Look out for the II's on the bid and ask for the last few months, hmm, since RAB came on board it seems !!

GLA

If you havent read it :

http://arbitrationblog.kluwerarbitration.com/2019/03/13/oil-gas-is-italy-doing-it-wrong-all-over-again/

They set up a climate committee for sealion months ago, PMO ahead of that one .

It seems that most all of the Navitas board were on board at Delek when the 22tfc Leviathon gas field was discovered. Tadmor was even CEO of Avner oil who were also a partner on the project, as well as Chairman of Delek.

Also on the gas project as 40% partner were Noble Energy, who were also in the Falklands partnering FOG and held those licences in the South, which are now owned by RKH.
Small world eh ?
Surely no coincidence that Delek / Navitas hear about the Falklands potential from Execs of Noble Energy during that time.

Fecm,
OM could come at any time, they can only go by the timescale given , Within 120 days.
So the arbitration decision could be anytime from now on .

Could and should be the first of many purchases .
That would be very positive signs.

Valueseeker - There are lots of shorts wanting to close before the more significant news starts to hit. And other holders want to get in cheaper or average down etc...

Now its down to timing as to when to pile back in or out for the next leg.

OM due this Q1 and any whiff of a deal signing will shut out those selling at 21-22p.

GLA

LTT,
On the call with PMO yesterday, Durrant stated that Navitas and PMO were in talks more re incremental financing and Debt.
Navitas must have done a lot of DD to get to here, not sure why they would bother without DD .
The possible increased fundiing via Navitas may mean that the UKEF application will be altered, or words to that effect. Talks are ongoing .
So if they require less funding from UKEF then it really increases the likelihood to the loan being granted I would have thought.
I cant see how UKEF fianance will come before Navitas have signed on first. How would they work that out , makes no sense if Navitas pull out.
When Navitas sign the contract then I will take it as read the show is definately on the road .
OM first up and UOG completion, nearly 20% of the company shares with Rockhopper.
Well test result still not out.

GS,
Deals are done in real time, who was to say POO would go down to $50 - $60 bpo range when the farmin was done with PMO.
The deal is done to get over funding problems.

30% of nothing is nothing, 30% of production is marerial.

They are now of the hook, not going to fold up anytime soon are they ?
For funding near - to long term, they have been caught by the short and curlies, no choice.
This is as good a deal in the current climate as they can get, but as least its on the road to getting it done.
Happy to know it's on the road finally.

Today was a game changer , they are free of debt till 7 months after 1st oil.

I trust PMO to do DD on the Navitas's ability to get funding. , dont bite a biter so to speak.

OM arbitration , UOG deal next up.

Takeen over near first oil !, wont be cheap and there will be plenty of takers then.