Member Info for Marunam2

Auson,

Majedies sold out to RAB Capitol at 5p or so some months ago.

Buying has been going on between 5.50p and 6p for past few days, how long to clear any shorts being allowed to close and any overhang ? .

Some interesting points being made and I would hopefully add that for everyones sake another viable vaccine is announced.

From the POO point of view , the sooner the world is able to move around the quicker the oil demand picks up and the worlds economies rally.

Will Navitas hang around to wait for the call or will they now be pushing Chrysoar for a decision ?
It cost them money to keep lawyers and accountants and other specialsits on the books for the farmin deal.

Chrysoar ditching Navitas is a very good sign for Sealion now.
I feel keeping them on would surely indicate that they are able to guarantee the finance for the farmin deal.

So I expect the longer the wait goes on the more likely they will be allowed to farmin, otherwise they would have to announce their departure from the deal as would PMO and RKH.

There is no way Chrysoar will let go of Sealion, along with the massive tax credit it's likely to make them a ftse 100 company in a few years.

Well I stand corrected in that I thought Premier would be able to stand by the farmin.
Seems Chrysoar needs to give the approval. Unless they want the deal re negotiated as Muchaboutmoney says or wants to being in other partners of their own choosing with bigger pockets.
With their financing ability they would be able to keep 70% of Sealion.

Premier Trading update tommorrow as well, hence I feel a short closed.

IMO,
someone closed out their short yesterday.

Since RAB Capitol came on board as II shareholders, the share has seen the bid and ask dominated by the same entity ,imo.
In fact thefirst 3to 4 bids and asks , to me seem like the same entity.
The share has been so illliquid that someone with say 18m shares could easily do what they want.
Noticed it for a few months now.
Also , Brokers / Intermediates don't charge fees to trade to II's anywhere near as high as retail traders.
Hence small trades cost virtually nothing to II's as the % increase/ decrease in the sp from the trades is virtually always negligible.
May be wrong , aim is the twilight zone as we know.

Hi Surfit,
I hope you are wrong and that PMO are no longer in charge till the merger completes.
The creditors have ageeed to the merger.Will shareholders make a difference to the outcome, I don''t think so.
IF Navitas want to sign the deal and PMO and RKH want them to , how can Chrysoar currently have a say in it. The HoT is between those 3 parties. If Chrysoar do decide to pull the plug then it wont happen till after the merger as you indicate ,IF it does at all.
If Navitas do want to sign on and do ,then would it not be easier if Chrysoar wanted to pull out of Sealion altogether for them to flog it to someone for whatever they can get !
I just cant see the benefit of that, their current assets will show declining production within 4 years as stated by them.
Also cant see FIG being happy if Navitas are denied and then Sealion is shelved, licence extension would be then be an issue.
Lets see if they stick to the deadline as stated by Fecm for the farmin.

Surfit,

"how can they raise finance without knowing and and giving the lenders proof???
Sorry what proof are you referring to ??

Gamechanger news for RKH, merger can go ahead and now with finance sorted with the merger it's over to Navitas if they come on board or are dumped by PMO/Chry' to keep a bigger slice.

Would cost them $100m to do so .

Another piece of news to look out for is the PMO credit holders agreeing to extend existing maturity date of its debt facilities from May 2021 to 31 March 2022. Till basically when the merger transaction completes. Thereby approving the merger.
PMO will announce BY Tuesday 4th November if that has been succesful, 43% of creditors were on board when it was announced. Significant news for RKH imo.

Don't con a conman or so the saying goes.
Harbour the arbitration funder is basically all made up of lawyers and QC's , so I doubt they won't be keeping an eye on King and Spalding who are litigating the arbitration on behalf of RKH .

I would think in this case it's the Arbitrar's and ICSID who are the cause of the "delay", but they will point to data that says it's a standard amount of time for "awards " by ICSID panels.
Some take even longer than average time though 50% "awards" are within a year of the last hearing accoring to ICSID data.
Interestingly that period of 1 year is due next week if I'm not wrong.

I actually now don't believe it's more than the time avarage times for ICSID tribunals to come to a decision, perhaps the pandemic set it back a couple of months, but ICSID is holding hearings via remote settings for months.

If, I look at it in laymans terms, lost profits can't be based on future prices as no one knows what they will be, but historical data could be used to guage the previous averages of POO, through the various recent major events, e.g banking crisis, Iraqi war , world usage and POO during these periods. Depends if they would do that and how far they go back .
That is if they agree with RKH's claim, it's surely the difference between a large payout or one that covers sunk costs and extras spent on OM.
Any payout to cover RKH funds beyond end of 2022 would be welcome.

My understanding is that PMO creditors have till 4th November to agree to the terms proposed.

Have they got a choice ? , unless there is a white knight who swoops in with a counter offer.

Separately, the 5th of november is the date which puts the arbitration award being decided is in the 50% of cases resolved.

So an interesting 3 weeks coming up.

Just bought 72981 @ 15.44 showing as sold

The director of minerals for FIG , Well he seems happy !

Genuine question.
I would like to know if anyone has a handle on the rough cost incurred by PMO during their time in the FI. This includes any cost associated with the FI assets, incluing the Farmin, Exploration wells , FEED studies, infrastructure and the rest .
How far north of $500m is it ?

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/pemex-wins-approval-to-delay-probe-by-zama-discovery/2-1-889366

Shows could take a long time to realise value on Zama.
Sorry not a subscriber, but 1st line gives the gist.

LTT,
If you look at the economics of the project this is as cheap as it gets imo, maybe squeeze a bit more contrbution from the vendors, who now would have more financial confidence in the project , not to mention the ECA.
For me the big concern was Navitas signing with a get out clause till April, that is no longer on the table for them regards an option for them to play PMO /RKH along . They lose out if they dont sign as the merger means that the financial clout it brings makes it very likely to be financible( is there such a word ? ) . So they are either in or out and if I was them it's now a no brainer with ECA and the new finance available.
ECA will also be more assured that their loan is much more secure.

RKH financed till 1 year after 1st oil is massive, makes them incredialy attractive and puts a hefty premium on taking them out once the deal is signed.
Wether Navitas sign or not does not matter now, but if they do we know the game is really on. It also underpins for me the value of the RKH stake in Sealion and the rest of the acreage, which long termers know is very likely to contain even larger reserves all told.
I read that ARCM , one of the major creditor's in PMO were involved in the talks with Cryasoar so that is a plus sign for the merger and RKH.
I am now more confident than previously when they submitted the PIM 1st time as rejection does not mean it's the end of the game for Sealion.

All to play for now with a lot more in favour of Sealion imo, than not.

If Navitas were hesitant before, the game has surely changed . The merger beings financial clout and stability to the Sealion project for RKH and FIG.
It has difficult to see how Cryasoar would not like Sealion as an asset.
Zama their other deveolpment / Appraised asset has major problems and wont be getting of the ground anytime soon.
Zama is a very good asset and but for PMO's debt could have been very valuable when POO rises. One thing against Zama development for PMO and their partners is the political shenanigan's of the Mexican President , who basically wants to "nationalise" Mexican oil and gas. PEMEX the NOC of Mexico is the most indebted company in the world, and without drilling a well in the adjoining acreage want to lay claim to a lot of the Zama field. They have succeed in the the National regulator has asked PEMEX and the Zama consortium to negotiate the share of the field.
Zama therefore could be stranded for a long time and lose more value. PMO have been trying to flog Zama to reduce debt ,but covid and the PEMEX fiasco ruled that out.
So, that leaves Sealion as the other major developmental READY asset.
With the financial clout the merger brings and the fact that Cryasoar are a British company ( albeit with major American shareholders ) which is involved in North Sea assets and have already jumped through the regulatory hoops for their Chevron purchase of said North Sea assets. The bar to get Export credit is surely lower, in that the sum required maybe lower and the financial stability is now there.
Navitas, can now show their backers that the major partner is now financially stronger and that they have an absolute bargain in their hands. They will want to sign to ensure they are not out of Sealion,they must see the signs and know they are on a massive winner now.

It's a massive shame for PMO holders, I was one on them for a while and sheer luck and lucky trading got me out of there unscathed.
One thing is the sp is not reflecting the change in the Sealion prospects, yet.
Navitas agreed to pay their share of the development and 230m for their 30%, RKH mcap is less than £35m.
this is a massive undervaluation for the changed circumstances !!, When Navitas signs, is the bar not set on Sealion Valuation , which was dirt cheap under different circumstances.

Even a small award from OM will tide us over as things progress and POO improves.

IMVHO