Member Info for Marunam2

yes.

2PM today GM, Harbour comes into being as a FTSE company today.

Whilst FIG might bend to further tax cuts, it's also worth bearing in mind that the license is up for renewal in May.
If Harbour want to proceed but will want try to re negotiate with the partners, FIG, Ukef ? etc, they will have to do it quick when the merger completes.
I cannot see how Harbour would stay immobile during this period on any of those.
FIG are not going to be fully pressured by Harbour in that they have the license renewal coming up. If Harbour are not straight forward in their intentions to develop Sealion then there will be no application for an extension of the license, then we will know.
Should they apply for an extension ,then FIG would be remiss if they did not put pressure on Harbour re their intentions.
So it works both ways , BUT if Harbour withdraw, they will have to pay their share of the wind down costs first, then 100% of the license reverts back to RKH.
A FID ready project , at worst RKH could sell the whole lot for $XXXm as they would own the project completely up to that point.
MuchaboutMoney put it nicely: I think for Harbour the Falklands has the potential to be a small time North Sea with numerous follow on opportunities and will quickly become self financing at which time production growth will be exponential as more and more oil is discovered.

Point is oil in the FI ,it's not a one trick pony.
Time is limited to play games, so that's good for RKH.
A nett $25 payout from OM should safeguard RKH and if Harbour pull out they can apply to take over and get a license extension from FIG till they found a buyer.
Think POO will fall back on lockdown spreading across the world , hope not, but Vaccine rollout should be in full flow by May.

Ovets,
Going by the article content :
Surely the point is that if governments change the law willy nilly to please the voters to get into power does not mean they can escape their legal domestic and International liabilities to investors . Governments can come and go but domestic and International law still applies. Treaties such as ICSID are above national laws and the whims of the politicians if they arbitrarily deny fair treatment to investors.

The claim is made and this changes nothing in my opinion on whatever the outcome.
I would think it will be very telling if in 2 months any permits are issued .
IF they are denied the permits without a replacement moratorium in place then 84 drilling applications would have the right to go to arbitration in my opinion. These investors have put a lot of money forward to get to the drilling permit stage, if they are denied and RKH wins their arbitration ,then look out Italy.

Contd:
Another 54 requests concern research on the mainland. Just to name a few, the largest by extension, the English Rockhopper asks to drill between Isernia, Campobasso and Chieti; Eni in the Potenza area; Aleanna Italia in the Bologna area, but also in Molise between Campobasso and Isernia; Delta Energy between Avellino and Benevento; Mac Oil between Como and Varese; Eni between Pescara and Teramo. In Sicily, Eni asks to do research between Modica and Ragusa, but also in the Vittoria plain, in the area between Caltagirone, Gela and Mazzarrone and on the Madonie in the Petralia Soprana area; Mac Oil has submitted a research request between Enna, Caltanissetta and Agrigento; the Alcanna Italia group in the Belice area.

Environmentalists are now very concerned. "The law that extended the moratorium for authorizations for new oil exploration on land and sea has disappeared from the decree-law of one thousand extensions and by virtue of this new research applications can be authorized to drill because the law provided that the moratorium of 24 months on the new authorizations for the exploration of hydrocarbons should be aimed at drawing up the plan of suitable areas to be created within 18 months of the publication of the law in the Official Journal, in the absence of this plan always according to article 11 ter of the 2019 decree applications for permits will take effect again within 24 months: the deadline for adopting the plan is February 2021 », says Bonelli. "This plan - continues the exponent of the Greens - has not been drawn up so that in the coming weeks research permits and drilling authorizations will be granted to lots in regions such as Emilia Romagna, Basilicata where the major research instances of hydrocarbons, in the Adriatic and Ionian seas and in the Sicilian channel. Those responsible for this mess are the ministers of the Environment Sergio Costa and of Economic Development Stefano Patuanelli who did not draft the plan that they themselves had proposed, two ministers of the M5S have been responsible for this mess or to cancel the moratorium on drilling because they have not drawn up and adopted the plan that the law they wanted and written provided for ».

Cracking find Mogger. Kudos to your research skills.

The populist Italian government put the moratorium on drilling for 24 months and in the meantime would draw up a plan , 2 years have nearly passed and they have done bugger all , therefore when the moratorium ends in there is no action plan to prevent applications / permits from being approved.
Monte Grosso is in the Potenza area as noted in the article.
Made me laugh out loud : The English Giant Rockhopper.

If I get sued for printing this, you are all chipping in .
From the Adriatic to the Strait of Sicily, from the Emilian hinterland to that of Basilicata, searches for gas and oil on land and sea resume. The Conte government in the milleproroghe decree did not extend the moratorium to new authorizations: a moratorium wanted two years ago by the 5-star Movement which had imposed a stop for at least 24 months. An oversight, a change in energy policy after the tremendous pressure from giants like Eni and European companies, from North Petroleum to Rockhopper who have pending requests for new research worth billions of euros? "Certainly a very serious mess," says Angelo Bonelli of the Verdi.

At the moment, 84 applications for new drills have been submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development. Many of which are at an advanced stage: in a nutshell, only the last signature is missing. And without a moratorium they will shortly be authorized, also to avoid disputes that are millionaires, given that in some cases an environmental impact assessment has also been obtained: the English giant Rockhopper has already threatened a claim for damages of 350 million pounds.

At sea, there are 24 pending requests and all are concentrated between the Adriatic and the Strait of Sicily: in front of the coast between Gela and Licata the British company Northern Petroleum submitted a request for drilling for an area of ??279 square kilometers and two requests have presented Eni and Edison in partnership, the first for 60 square kilometers and the second for 450 square kilometers. Alongside Pantelleria, the Piedmontese company Audax Energy has applied for a research permit for 345 square kilometers. In front of the Apulian and Calabrian coasts there are three applications for research at sea: two submitted by the company Aleanna Italia (an American group in partnership with the Emilian Gas plus) and one by Eni. Going up towards the Adriatic, the Global Petroleum and Northern Petroleum ask for research permission off the Apulian and Basilicata coasts, and off the Abruzzo coasts it is the Aleanna Petroleum group that asks to drill. Moving further towards the Adriatic, the questions are concentrated in front of the Emilian coasts: Eni, Agip and Adriatic Oil are asking for research permits.

Definitely a new player in town , the entity that's been sitting on the bid / ask for weeks got blown about today.
Not so unusual in that we have been at 5.00 - 6.00p range for months, many other Oilies have seen their price doubled ,then halved then doubled again in that time. PMO, TLW, UOG, GKP, CNE, all to a varying degree.
RKH has been held down here during that time as we are not directly producing anything meaningful , Sealion on hold and OM still awaited.

When POO hits $55 and above Sealion starts to look attractive , fiscally , politically and asset wise as it's ready to go.
RKH has not moved a jot for weeks and the last rns has indicated that the "close" of the case could come at any time.
As POO rises ,so do asset prices, just look at what PMO were willing to pay for Shearwater and the other assets. So saying that Harbour will buy "cheap " assets rather than develop Sealion does not make sense when POO is going higher, they will pay the going rate for those assets as they relate to POO and what it means to the assets bottom line.

Weak holders have left, any traders left months ago as pastures were greener elsewhere and liquidity was poor for too long to hang around.
RKH should be well over 12p at the minimum, hence why I think it will tick up slowly as more holders are shaken out.
Wait till the traders ears prick up and then it will be a free for all.
This is either my multi bagger or its not. It is definitely worth a lot, lot more than the current sp.
GLA

Navitas may not remain in play if Harbour are looking for other partners , which they sensibly should be.
If UKEF don't play along then it would be foolish for a company to wait for the confirmation. Harbour are surely in the prime seat re negotiating the whole deal, top to bottom. From the time of the announcement, these extra 3/4 months gives them the time to play the field. Any (other ) prospective partner would have them over a barrel if UKEF declined before any agreement.

What are the arbitration panel working on IF the case is without merit ??

Fecm,
Having looked at previous cases, most awards are given within a month of the close of the arbitration. They have "deliberated" for a long time since the last closing of submissions in October 2019.

Glass half full: Italy will know how the whole case was presented, strength of legal arguments and evidence of expert witness etc.
If they are ever going to settle then they now know this is time to decide. If they lose they will be faced with more claims and a precedent set. Any monetary award will be a big loss for them , they need a complete win.
Costs RKH nothing.

Glass Half Empty: Rockhopper lose and are solely reliant on Sealion in the hands of a newly formed company.

At least for now the glass is not empty.
I wish you all a peaceful break.

I would say that just as the pandemic caused this annus horribilis , the vaccine will cause a annus mirabilis in 2021.

The eruption of planes, trains and automobiles using energy of all kinds is going to be underestimated ,there will be a sharp drain in the overhang in inventories and I suspect that the market and OPEC+ will be caught out by the demand to the upside. Just as people did not anticipate the carnage for oil and gas to be so severe, the same will apply to the upside. Don't count on shale recovering to previous levels, the cat is out of the bag for shale. No profits ,no easy lending to oilers, many billions of debt are due, no easy finance to keep drilling on the same reckless scale as previously.

Even if RKH were to be bought out , what is 30% of Sealion alone worth to a buyer in a recovering market, what is it worth in a robustly recovering market. Then add in the other acreage and as Ovets points out a benign Falkland government.

Come March, Chrysoar is going to be sitting pretty with this merger and Sealion will be high on their list to do, after all unlike the USA, the UK export credit agency may foot the largest part of the finance for Sealion to go ahead.
Shame for RKh shareholders that we will have to wait, but bear in mind POO is $48 and change currently. $55 was the "go " level previously and that was some time ago.
Any size of an OM award is going to put a floor in RKH imo, I misunderstood the way ICSID procedures work and will wait for the rns saying the case is closed.

The merger prospectus is due to come out soon and will make interesting reading, if it is detailed.

GLA

RNS :08/04/2020

Environmental, Social and Governance ("ESG")

ESG continues to be a key focus for Rockhopper and we are committed to acting as a socially responsible contributor to the global energy mix.

For the Sea Lion development, Rockhopper is committed to net zero in respect of scope 1 and 2 emissions from the project. Such a commitment is expected to be achieved through a combination of reduced emissions from the use of best-in-class technologies and investment in carbon-offsetting projects both in the Falklands and the UK.

In June 2019, FIG approved the establishment of an environment fund to receive and administer future off-setting payments from the Sea Lion joint venture and distribute those funds for activities aimed at ensuring a positive environmental legacy.

The worst performer in my oil stocks today , BUT the best move up today out of the lot for the long term hold.
Actually hoping for no news for at least a week.

With Chrysoar now being confirmed as having the final say , the terms agreed could be viewed as null and void as they are not legally binding .
This leaves room for Chrysoar to re negotiate the terms or just get rid of Navitas completely and go it alone or bring in a bigger player to take over the farmin at better terms.

Alternatively they could all just walk away , Chrysoar because they don't need over 40% of their total combined future reserves, Navitas becuase they can get an even cheaper deal elsewhere and RKH because they are no longer interested in Sealion as they want to conserve the cash they have for director salaries.

Great news re the Oxford vaccine for Britain and for the poorest parts of the world.

RKH are unable to publish any terms of the deal with Harbour as they would have signed a NDA at the start along with Harbour and the lawyers in the case.

Harbour the funder also have special investigators who during the case identify state assets to claim against that in the event of a win the state refuses to pay up. These assets are used as proof that any party can't claim they cannot pay and stop any "stay" of the award being issued by ICSID.
Also noted that awards can be bought of the claimant, this would be minus the percieved cost of the future legal cost and a premium for the risk. But the claimant would still be involved in the case till all appeal avenues have finished with ICSID.
I am still surprised that Italy have not taken the chance to negotiate a settlement, there are many other energy compnies lined up to follow RKH if they should win the arbitration
Lets hope they win, win enough to safeguard the company. Even $25m in hand is a good win.

The stronger the company, the higher any prospective bid imo, still debt free remember.

https://www.harbourlitigationfunding.com/solutions/

I advise those who have an interest in OM to go through this webiste.

Harbour Litigation are the funders of the arbitration and there is some very useful knowledge to gain for lay people like me.

Answers a lot of the common questions , re cost of arbitration, securing awards , criteria for funding selection etc.

Should clarify - RKH and Other(s) against the Republic Of italy.

Surprised to learn that there are others also claiming against Italy at the same time as RKH.

Are you not more than a bit late with all this ?

Good news re the Moderna vaccine, still a lot of if's and but's about both vaccines .
The Uk bought into 6 vaccines , so fingers crossed for them to also come through.
It's not the developed countries population alone to worry about . People can take it or not, they have healthcare systems who will look after ALL the people.
So what do undeveloped countries people do ? . Medicine and free healthcare are pipe dreams for them , anyone who has lived in these countries know the healthcare systems are for the rich and connected only and cannot cope with this level of pandemic . For them a working vaccine is their only option.
Oil related _ Must be a good time to weigh buying for long term some O and G companies as the outlook can change very quickly in the next 2 to 5 months. POO at $50 to $55 would make some current valuations attractive,
Surprised SP has not gone up , volume has been good .