Member Info for Marunam2

Ordinary working class people are facing a bleak winter, this "winter" could go on for 1 to 5 years as the Russia invasion is not going to end for some time . In addition the sanctions against them ( Russia ) , including energy , will last for a very long time, that's even after the war finishes, reparation's to Ukraine will need to be made for them to enter the international market, that alone could take years.. The sentiment to encourage oil and gas production now is going to expand , we need secure energy sources , period . The days of not looking forward have been ended by the stark reality that Britain's will face a severe recession for the next year or two. The Govt' is having to plough in so much money to prop up energy cost for country, it's not going to end for some years imo. They need to get ahead of this .
So the choices are there for them to secure or not as many reliable secure energy sources as possible and to do this what better ay then to fund the project.
Will the new PM do this ? , imo it's the easiest win politically . It's not just Sealion that will be the attraction, it's also the follow up acreage.

Don't forget the Navitas board have the experience of 2 massive projects behind them already. They would have put the feelers out for quite some time to get ahead of the game to secure funding, funding is something they have already delivered and have now hired experienced project managers to carry out the Sealion project.

I'm sure Navitas didn't come all this way to rely on fickle politicians for anything, but if said politicians acted true to their real nature, it's possible there could be some funding avenue.

Tick tock..... on the interest accruing every day as well . If the game is to take it to 119/120 days before appeal ( madness, but I hope so ) then there is the discount accumulated from the interest, to sell on the claim.

It's a shame Dragi was ousted, being a bureaucrat he would have recognised the futility and waste (daily interest ) in prolonging non payment, a full 120 days @X% interest is in itself a significant sum for an appeal that most certainly will fail. If they were to lodge an annulment, they would and should have done it asap, that's IF if they were confident of winning the annulment.
A unanimous decision in any court ruled on by a panel sets an extremely high bar to overcome that decision.

Personally I look it at this way , I hope they do take the full 120 days with the interest accruing every day , makes my OO and warrants even cheaper. The interest per day will more then dwarf the money raised recently by a significant amount.
Every day they have not paid makes the sp a steal as cash in hand increases when they eventually pay and they will have to pay.

Snap Paul, lol.

It's only a small matter of time before FIG, and Sealion partners are in sync.
The new PM was in charge of the department looking after UKEF for a long time and must have seen the Sealion application for funding.
It would be a feather in her cap, in the current macro, political and energy crisis surroundings, to bring energy security for GB outside of the North Sea and British waters.
If she gives the go ahead, then Sealion timelines to first oil could be reduced materially.

Her actual quote "I will deal hands on with energy crisis caused by Putins war. I will take action this week to deal with energy bills and "secure our future supply".

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://harbourlitigationfunding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Harbour-Investment-Commercial-Treaty-Arbitration.pdf

Enforcement against a sovereign State is challenging, but Harbour is able to take advantage of its experience and extensive network of specialist advisers with long and proven track records of success to identify attachable assets in appropriate jurisdictions and reduce the risk of not recovering damages.

They will also be aware that an rns could drop confirming Navitas / RKH approval by FIG. Harbour already confirmed they got the nod.
People have top sliced at higher than today and any further down will see people coming back into it , fine balance now approaching.

imho : Non traders are going to need patience, after yesterdays near doubling of the price all charting tools / indicators are naturally showing "overbought". Till they come into a reasonable range we will likely be around 2p either side of today sp, sans any news.
For LTH the daily share price imo is going to need a few days / week to settle then the trend will start to reflect any progress on the award.
Traders ( me included ) will ride the swings in the meantime.
It's patently obvious that it's undervalued at the moment relative to the award , unlike II's who wait for confirmation, we don't have to and as everyone has pointed out the sp is well below the level of "cash ", BUT till payment is received a nice position can be built for long term holders imo.
NOT NFA, for friends of mine on the board.

Imagine how much easier this award has made it for Navitas to go to lenders when their partner is on a much , much sounder footing.

This would all transpire should Italy come to ICSID for an annulment claiming they were unable to pay, they would produce these assets at that time, tried and tested already .

Rpoodle,
Annulment - would be costly and futile, you would think they learned that lesson with this award.
If Harbour are as good as I think they re, there is a specialist team they have that identifies "current "Italian assets abroad that they can "seize" and claim against , ala Cairn with Air India in their case.
Non payment is not going to be an issue as they will file in NY and they invariably accede to ICSID awards.
The effect of non payment on their National credit rating would also be on their minds when thinking of non payment.

ICSID sent a clear and strong message that they will not tolerate tactics to undermine their jurisdiction and non payment of court fees by anyone , let alone a state !!!

If they received the award this morning, then they had no choice but to put it out asap, If the Italians released it in the meantime and people picked that up , there would be questions asked of RKH and management.

For gods sake don't let the market( major holders ) have your shares cheap, don't panic sell at 16p and work out how much this sp is in cash only , not even including Sealion which will now be fully funded from RKH coffers.

Jono44,
The concern is that depletion rates , well payback times and well cost are always lumped together and hence it is difficult for us retail to know what is going on till the updates , even then detail is scarce . When things are going well the CEO is upbeat and chatty , but when the opposite happens it's very general talk.
At the recent update, I asked a question and it was ignored , there will still 20 minutes left in th ehour.
It was simple enough a question: Have you learnt going forward from the mistakes with the Hibiscus deal, where we got less than we agreed in the deal and very nearly lost it all.?
Because whoever did the deal needed a good kicking and their lawyers need to explain how they were not covered for what took place financially. With Maria and especially Jamaica , they better hire bloody good lawyers and have stops and penalties for missed deadlines in place. Are these not ex - Tullow, we should expect and do expect much better.
M/C is lower then when they paid RKH for the assets , and since received $5m for assets sold this year and POO at $100, is not clever and don't start me on the warrants and payrise.

They should have earmarked the sold assets money to repay or pay a significant amount of the BP debt. This loan is expensive whichever you look at it .
The price action is not helping confidence here, and the current drill must be or at or approaching their targets, fingers crossed it flow and flows well.

The news is interesting in that had they the consents from FIG and SOS have been received.
This would surely be to greenlight Navitas and most importantly the lenders to start the negotiations on a firm footing the consents allow. This would reduce the timeframe for the lending to be completed ,otherwise they wait till the official completion which is by Q3 end.
Gideon Tadmor and Navitas would surely have sounded out investors a long time ago and must have some assurances from them to present to FIG and RKH for them to take this on in the first place. POO is high and likely to stay so for a while so they need to get the money in while sentiment for oil and gas needs is high.

Very positive news as institutional investors will move up the sp to hoover up weak holders who sell their shares .

GLA

Very positive news imo for me the reasons above.

Funny Oilfred I was just doing that, he's had a bad run going by his postings, £7k to £115, was one, seems all the companies he owns he would not recommend after shelling out a lot for them . Sad to see all the losses he has made, would not wish that on anyone .

Can someone also advise where the filter button is ? TIA

Forgot to add:
https://www.navitaspet.com/executive-committee/

The Management team at Navitas should not be underestimated. Navitas may seem a small player but the management are not. The executives on the board have held top posts in Delek and they helped transform that company.
The level of experience is high and I suspect they have already felt out the capital markets already before the farmin. Their ability to raise money is proven and bar raising the finance for Sealion they have not had to put their hand their pocket yet, a big plus for RKH imo. Look at it from their point of view, a 65% share of a fully appraised 500m -700m barrel field, zero % discovery, appraisal and feed costs and with Harbour exiting no de comm cost for the them. The current economic and energy crisis is playing into their hands and they would be foolish not to strike while the going is as good as it has been for 10 years. I expect a larger partner at some stage to join them , if they can raise all the funds, it would put them in a really strong position should they take on a partner to spread the overall risk.
I read ( can't remember when or where ) that the Deputy CEO is heading to Europe to sound out financial markets there over the coming months. The main problem for Rkh has been solved with the riase and a decent payout from from Icsid would transform the sentiment for the company .
I would be disappointed if the finance and feed option took more then 9 - months.
I expect a lot of manipulation here after OM to shake holders out , will go on for a few months and then true value will out for the next year or two.

GLA