Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Good post Bennster,
Agreed we will certainly have churn around the 5p mark. Hard to tell how much and for how long.
But I think the company is trading at an extreme discount to how much I think it could be worth. So I've bought a lot of shares and I'm waiting for the story to unfold. It's not worth trying to be cute imo. The volume might not be there when I need to buy and the price could run away.
Hopefully we'll have large volume as news comes out over the coming weeks.
I don’t think the market has appreciated how large the streaming profits could be, or how popular the artists performing at Kpop.flex are.
The streaming potential is huge.
The two largest Kpop groups are BTS and BlackPink.
BTS earned $71m from a single 2-day streamed event last year. $71m!
https://www.bandwagon.asia/articles/bts-break-own-world-record-1-33-million-paid-viewers-online-concert-2021-earnings-sales-tickets-merch-muster-sowoozoo-virtual-livestream-venewlive-kiswe-8th-anniversary-watch-hybe-big-hit-music-june-2021
BlackPink made $10.5m from a single live stream
Individually the bands aren’t as large as BTS or BlackPink, but collectively they are.
BTS has 60m instagram followers and BlackPink has 45m. Collectively the Kpop.flex bands have 55m.
BTS has 38m monthly listeners on Spotify and BlackPink has 15m. Collectively the Kpop.flex bands have 30m.
The streaming profits from just the annual Frankfurt concert could be a company maker.
People need to understand the cashflows and the reason for the raise.
The Bricklive business is doing very well now. It could cover the group’s overheads and leave some profit.
The Kpop event is going to create very large cash inflows, but these will be received after the event. Live Nation will release the cash from ticket sales after the event, plus merch and streaming cash will come in around the event. At the moment the company is having to pay out setup costs for the event (especially with the extension to two days). They also need to take advantage of the wider kpop opportunity (the event has been far more successful than anticipated).
Therefore there’s a timing difference on cash flows that needed to be bridged. The fact that they managed an institutional fundraise at a small premium is great, especially in the current market.
Once the concert is over I calculate that over 2 million from just the ticket sales will hit the KPE bank account. Streaming and Merch could easily double that and more.
https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1500881099022606337?s=20&t=1mEpo5yjAgisY6JFphkxSQ
Great - thanks
Thanks,
Those were the maximum rates. Do we know what sustained production rates will be?
What rate are we expecting gas to come on at next week?
And what will it increase to with Southwark first gas later this year?
Cheers.
Unfortunate situation but has been resolved quickly in the past. The last time it happened in late November it was resolved in just over a week, and that’s when the share price rallied to new highs.
Ended at 64c in Canada last night (about 38p) so I’m not expecting much of a drop this morning.
What's really interesting is that if gas prices remain elevated for a length of time, then the options market may catch up and Serica may be able to find a counterparty willing to sell it Puts.
The Puts might cost a bit, but they could lock in some of these great prices. Then the market would have to recognise the value.
Imagine locking in the remaining unhedged gas production for the next 12 months using 200p Puts. It would guarantee them a minimum of $600m+ free cash for the next twelve months (less the options premiums).
The Monecor shares are the holdings of the underlying individual investors, like bigmj.
Monecor don't have 19m shares on their own account. They aren't a fund who are selling down.
It's just some individuals who have sold.
https://www.musicweek.com/live/read/europe-s-biggest-ever-k-pop-festival-adds-second-day-with-g-i-dle-monsta-x-ab6ix-oneus-and-ive/085194
Confirmation of the acts. Also confirmation of a Fan Fest:
'The Kpop.Flex event also promises a “vibrant fan-fest celebrating Korean culture” in the grounds of the Deutsche Bank Park stadium. Organisers aim to establish the festival as a hub for Europe’s K-pop community.'
https://twitter.com/kpop_flex/status/1493140979523760128?s=20&t=DrdncmR-c6XlOVl-bA2JpA
Agreed.
The Nigeria update included in the admission document shows excellent progress and certainly makes the Nigeria forecast looks very conservative. I'm especially happy with the cash collection figures.
'Average gross daily Nigeria production in the year-to-date period ended 31 October 2021 was 21.9 Kboepd,
a 16 per cent. increase from the average gross daily production of 19.0 Kboepd in the same period in 2020.
Of the total average gross daily production of 21.9 Kboepd in the year-to-date period, 88 per cent. was
gas, including a 16 per cent. increase in production from the Uquo gas field compared to the same period
last year, from 99.5 MMscfpd (16.6 Kboepd) to 115.6 MMscfpd (19.3 Kboepd).
The Nigerian Assets year-to-date cash collections for the period ended 13 December 2021 amount to
US$201.3 million. This is 7 per cent. higher than FY20 cash collections of US$187.4 million and 20 per
cent. higher than FY20 cash collections when an adjustment is made for the non-recurring US$20 million
contract re-negotiation payment received from Lafarge Africa in FY20.'
Page 6 shows the base case free cash-flows average $279m for the next 9 years.
This is based on a $65 long term Brent price (+2% inflation). Using a more realistic $80 made the average free cash flow is $322m.
This includes nothing for Niger and very conservative figures for Nigeria and Chad.
From page 12 we can see that the Niger production forecast of 5kbopd will add $36m a year to those figures at $80. So already at $358m free cash flow.
Add in some upside in Nigeria and Chad and we could be at $500m a year free cash flow.
Good information in the presentation.
First thing to note is that the base case figures are using very conservative assumptions.
*There is nothing in the forecast for Niger
*Nigeria production forecast in the base case is showing under 20kboepd for the next 9 years (120 mmcf/d) when we know they have 200 mmcf/d of nameplate processing capacity, 600 mmcf/d of pipeline capacity, and a growing customer base.
*Chad production is shown dropping from 30kbopd to under 25kbopd.
Slide 13 shows the upside case:
*5kbopd+ from Niger
*40kboepd production from Nigeria
*40kbopd+ from Chad
There’s a huge difference between the conservative assumptions used in the base case, and the upside potential.