Member Info for martyh

Thanks both.

Great - thanks

Thanks,

Those were the maximum rates. Do we know what sustained production rates will be?

What rate are we expecting gas to come on at next week?

And what will it increase to with Southwark first gas later this year?

Cheers.

What is current production and what will be production when the Greater Laggan Area Acquisition completes?

Thanks

Unfortunate situation but has been resolved quickly in the past. The last time it happened in late November it was resolved in just over a week, and that’s when the share price rallied to new highs.

Ended at 64c in Canada last night (about 38p) so I’m not expecting much of a drop this morning.

What's really interesting is that if gas prices remain elevated for a length of time, then the options market may catch up and Serica may be able to find a counterparty willing to sell it Puts.

The Puts might cost a bit, but they could lock in some of these great prices. Then the market would have to recognise the value.

Imagine locking in the remaining unhedged gas production for the next 12 months using 200p Puts. It would guarantee them a minimum of $600m+ free cash for the next twelve months (less the options premiums).

The Monecor shares are the holdings of the underlying individual investors, like bigmj.

Monecor don't have 19m shares on their own account. They aren't a fund who are selling down.

It's just some individuals who have sold.

Does anyone with experience of these things know what the gross profit margin will be on the merchandise sold at the event?

I assume there is quite a large mark-up.

https://www.musicweek.com/live/read/europe-s-biggest-ever-k-pop-festival-adds-second-day-with-g-i-dle-monsta-x-ab6ix-oneus-and-ive/085194

Confirmation of the acts. Also confirmation of a Fan Fest:

'The Kpop.Flex event also promises a “vibrant fan-fest celebrating Korean culture” in the grounds of the Deutsche Bank Park stadium. Organisers aim to establish the festival as a hub for Europe’s K-pop community.'

https://twitter.com/kpop_flex/status/1493140979523760128?s=20&t=DrdncmR-c6XlOVl-bA2JpA

Thanks

Where are you getting the £1.3m and £10m figures from MB10?

Thanks

Agreed.

The Nigeria update included in the admission document shows excellent progress and certainly makes the Nigeria forecast looks very conservative. I'm especially happy with the cash collection figures.

'Average gross daily Nigeria production in the year-to-date period ended 31 October 2021 was 21.9 Kboepd,
a 16 per cent. increase from the average gross daily production of 19.0 Kboepd in the same period in 2020.
Of the total average gross daily production of 21.9 Kboepd in the year-to-date period, 88 per cent. was
gas, including a 16 per cent. increase in production from the Uquo gas field compared to the same period
last year, from 99.5 MMscfpd (16.6 Kboepd) to 115.6 MMscfpd (19.3 Kboepd).

The Nigerian Assets year-to-date cash collections for the period ended 13 December 2021 amount to
US$201.3 million. This is 7 per cent. higher than FY20 cash collections of US$187.4 million and 20 per
cent. higher than FY20 cash collections when an adjustment is made for the non-recurring US$20 million
contract re-negotiation payment received from Lafarge Africa in FY20.'

Page 6 shows the base case free cash-flows average $279m for the next 9 years.

This is based on a $65 long term Brent price (+2% inflation). Using a more realistic $80 made the average free cash flow is $322m.

This includes nothing for Niger and very conservative figures for Nigeria and Chad.

From page 12 we can see that the Niger production forecast of 5kbopd will add $36m a year to those figures at $80. So already at $358m free cash flow.

Add in some upside in Nigeria and Chad and we could be at $500m a year free cash flow.

Good information in the presentation.

First thing to note is that the base case figures are using very conservative assumptions.

*There is nothing in the forecast for Niger

*Nigeria production forecast in the base case is showing under 20kboepd for the next 9 years (120 mmcf/d) when we know they have 200 mmcf/d of nameplate processing capacity, 600 mmcf/d of pipeline capacity, and a growing customer base.

*Chad production is shown dropping from 30kbopd to under 25kbopd.

Slide 13 shows the upside case:

*5kbopd+ from Niger

*40kboepd production from Nigeria

*40kbopd+ from Chad

There’s a huge difference between the conservative assumptions used in the base case, and the upside potential.

Alternatively, looking at things from the perspective of the NPV of the assets:

NPV10 of the combined group under the base case is $1.9bn. Total group debt may be around 800m. So that means the debt adjusted value of the business is c.$1.1bn

After the raise there will be about 1.25bn shares.

Therefore, if the market cap fully reflected the NPV of the assets, the share price should be about 88c per share. About 65p.

And that is using very conservative figures for their base case, for both the oil price and production. The oil forecasts are $75 in 2022, $70 in 2023, $65 in 2024, and $65 +2% inflation for later years.

With higher oil prices the NPV increases, and due to the leverage of the debt, the debt adjusted value increases significantly more (percentage wise).

At a more realistic $80 oil, I think the 88c share price would be well over $1.

Cash flows look great and support a far higher share price.

At 19.35p and with the new shares in issue the market cap will be c.£240m.

From the RNS, 2022 free cash flow will be $125m from Savannah's share of Doba, and $59m from Savannah's share of the pipeline. $184m in total. This is the base with conservative production forecasts and assuming $75 Brent.

Finncap have free cash flow of $105m for the existing business in 2022.

So the combined group will have c.$290m of free cash flow in 2022. Against a market cap of only £240m.

Also, the $290m of cash flow is just the base case. On top of this cash flows should increase significantly in the mid-term due to the following.

*Increased production from the acquired assets.
*Increased sales in Nigeria.
*Material production and cash flow in Niger.

I think free cash flow could easily hit $400m.

Must be worth 50p a share.

Phenomenal RNS.

$30m guaranteed revenue over 2 year already secured.

Surely going to be a huge upgrade to the 2022 forecasts.

Does anyone know what the cash operating costs per tonne are expected to be at 1,500 and 2,000 tpd?

I'm trying to figure out what kind of profit they will make at 2,000 tpd and 2% copper grade.