Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
This is PVGraf’s own website.
http://www.pvgraf.pl/en/technology
Doesn’t seem like a particularly large company.
It would be great to hear Paragraf’s talk view on potential competitors.
There are a number of people working with graphene and solar globally and trying to get it to work. I’m sure there are some who will be claiming to have a working cell.
As investors in VRS will know there are not yet any agreed standards on the definition of graphene. Every graphene production process will create a slightly different material with huge performance variation.
It’s extremely difficult to get a repeatable process that produces single layer, or few layer graphene at scale with consistent properties.
I can’t see where the graphene comes from that’s used in PV Graph other than seeing it referred to as Polish Graphene.
I’m also not sure exactly how they are using the graphene in the solar cell compared to Paragraf.
As stated in the announcement today, Verditek believe they have ‘the worlds' first Graphene Integrated Photo Voltaic cell.’
Paragraf will surely be aware of other graphene solar products in the press. The PV Graph product has been around for some time. This link from Feb 2018 contains the exact same wording as the wording currently on their website.
https://www.pr.com/press-release/744799
Great posts guys
A few thoughts on valuation now that we’ve been told they are expanding the factory to meet expected orders.
Paul Harrison said that using just the base pricing and 20WM, produces GBP 6 million and a bit of EBIT.
Knocking off corporation tax gives about £5m profit after tax. Using the UK average PE multiple of 14 would gives a £70m market cap, or a 24p share price.
The Italian factory can be scaled from 20MW to 50MW. I believe this is by increasing the number of shifts, therefore no further capex or delays would be required.
Looking at the results, the company has about £2m of overhead cost. Therefore I think Paul’s GBP 6m figure may be broadly £8m gross profit on panel sales and £2m of overheads.
At 50MW the £8m gross profit becomes £20m. Knocking off the £2m of overheads and corporate tax gives about £14.5m of profit after tax. Apply a PE multiple of 14 gives a £200m market cap, or a 69p share price.
This is all based on selling the panels at the base price, rather than a premium price for military, mining, or marine sales. Any increase in the panel selling price should fall straight through to the bottom line and have a leveraged impact on profits.
Brochures on the Verditek website gives examples of £1.5/watt for a fully installed system. Sales of just the solar panels to EPC companies will be at a lower price and I suspect this is the price that Paul Harrison referred to as the ‘base’ price that gives the £6m EBIT.
Specialist applications can charge a lot more. Solbian were recently discussed on advfn and they charge Euro 5.60-9.90/watt for their flexible panels for marine application.
In today’s results Rob mentions expanding into verticals and securing orders at attractive prices.
If Verditek can increase the average selling price by just 0.5 Euro per watt then the 24p share price at 20WM becomes 58p and the 69p share price at 50MW becomes £1.58 (20 fold from where we are today). They may be able to charge even more, especially for the camouflaged military panels.
Yes - I picked up the 20MW-50MW figures from the interview but initially assumed that additional production lines would be required. It's great that they can get 50MW from existing line and that this could happen very quickly (without any delays in ordering machines).
Thanks Feeks,
I'm a member but hadn't seen that post. Found it now.
Another gem someone posted is that the Italian factory can be scaled from 20MW to 50MW just by increasing the number of shifts. Therefore no additional capex or delays required.
Thanks Feeks,
Where did you see that he didn’t take a salary?
Cash flow positive in 2020!
'In the first weeks of my tenure, I have addressed the overheads within the company to make us lean for a more fit for purpose, hence significantly reducing the monthly burn rate. I expect that with the reduced overhead and expectant ramp up in revenues that we will be generating free cash flow within 2020.'
Must mean sales will ramp up quickly.
Looks like 20WM isn't going to be enough:
'Due to the increased demand seen, one of my first decisions was to increase the operating capacity of the facility in Italy to cope with the expected order levels over the coming months. The work to increase capacity has already commenced.'
'we have already achieved our first commercial order in the oil and gas business, subsequent to which we have received our first order in the marine sector and agricultural sector.'
New orders in marine and agriculture sectors.
Strategy
Verditek takes early stage positions in technology businesses and provides financial discipline and funding to take them through to commercial revenue and growth. Technology and market risk are managed by investing in technologies which service different markets and are at different stages of maturity. Cash generation from interests which are closest to revenue will supplement the investment needs of the businesses with longer technology development cycles. Near term strategic objectives include:
Sales: Verditek Solar Italy, our next generation solar cell technology company, is now in production and is generating revenue. As has been seen by the recent RNS, we have already achieved our first commercial order in the oil and gas business, subsequent to which we have received our first order in the marine sector and agricultural sector.
We continue to expand into verticals into which we can displace liquid fuels, and secure orders at attractive prices, the majority of these clients will operate in harsh environments which are ideally suited to the durable, lightweight panels we manufacture.
We continue strengthen our global sales reach increasing the number of agents and distributors appointed around the world, this deeper market penetration will allow Verditek to ramp up the sales funnel quicker and hence deliver the projects we need. This increased global presence has already enabled us to secure order in South Asia, South East Asia and Europe, while we are also targeting Australia as a potentially important market in the mining, marine and agricultural sectors.
This new team has already identified a previously untapped opportunity requiring, we believe, 2GW of lightweight solar panels, in one vertical, in one geographical area alone.
In our push to move from wet to dry fuels, we are aggressively targeting the remote microgrid market which combines our solar panels with batteries and/or back up generation to provide dependable power in remote locations.
https://imefficiency.com/feed/press-release-funding-2020-may
Thanks Feeks - do you have a link?
Thanks Feeks,
I’ve been reading everything here too. Some excellent posts here from yourself.
There have been a number of posts on the other site in the last few days (advf.n). Worth reading. I post there as Mcfly79.
Let's hope for a good week.
shareman10,
Thanks for the info on the garden/shopping centre. Please could you tell us where this is located and how you knew they were from Verditek?
Many thanks.
This is Verditek's brochure:
https://verditek.com/uploads/product/Verditek_Transport_Brochure.pdf
Nice tweet from Verditek showing a case study of adding their solar panels to refrigerated trucks.
hTTps://twitter.com/Verditek_PLC/status/1273932242604167168
Payback period is 1.74 years. Hugely appealing economics for the truck operators. Plus, of course, there is the environmental benefits.
The annual saving for a fleet of 1000 trucks is £4m. This means a £7m initial cost (based on 1.74 year payback). Some of that will be on other components and installation but the majority will be for the panels themselves so will be revenue to Verditek.
There are tens of thousands of refrigerated trucks in the UK alone. With many operators having fleets of over 1000 trucks.
This wiki link puts the worldwide number of refrigerated trucks at 4 million in 2010.
hTTps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refrigerator_truck#cite_note-3
The numbers just from this one application are potentially huge.