Member Info for MarktheSpark

I forgot to say that the tightness in the electricity supply will mean the biomass side of Drax will be needed at full capacity all winter and the coal side will be able to sell into the spot market in periods of shortage at decent prices.

Grid winter outlook is "tight but manageable", unfortunately they estimate a net import of 2gw from Europe. In reality Netherlands will probably continue with their 1gw contribution but will France be able to make up the extra 1gw given the continuing outages for safety checks in the French nuclear stations? Also the estimate of of power available includes the supplemental balancing reserve of back-up stations (mostly coal). That a bit like saying I've got enough petrol because I've got a gallon in a tin in the boot....in other words very chancy.

I presume the SP rise this morning is a response to the Grid's anticipated Winter Report for 2016/17 (published on October 15th last year). Electricity margins expected to be tight due to (I guess) French import reductions, closure of coal plants and failure to secure the expected Demand Side Reductions. All this is a market opportunity for Drax who plan to sell into the spot market from the coal fired side of their business (says their recent financial report).

This morning CCGT is producing 22gw of our electricity (close to its max of 25gw) even though wind speeds are decent and the turbines are producing 3.4gw. French imports are out of action. With so many coal plants now closed where will our electricity come from when the temperature drops? The supply margin is slim indeed for this winter. If this situation doesn't focus the government's attention on security of supply then nothing will. Maybe also an opportunity for Drax to sell at a decent price into the spot market.

Looks like Egdon's SP has caught a cold from Igas's woes even though their financial situations are completely different. Egdon has, I believe, no debt but holds considerable shale acreage as well as an expanding conventional output. I guess it's in these situations of illogical share declines that there are the best buying opportunities.

EDR has been rising in the run up to the announcement. I think the decision was already priced into the SP. I don't think the same was happening to IGAS because of their difficult financial situation.

In N Europe year ahead electricity contracts hit one-year highs last week over reports that France might prolong planned maintenance stoppages at 12 of its 58 nuclear reactors in the coming months for additional checks. As a result the French interconnector was exporting power today from the UK, the opposite to the way it's been for the last few months. Looks like we will not be able to rely on the interconnector this winter to cover our own problems when we have a cold snap. On the gas front prices were higher across the curve according to N Power. Looks like Drax will be fully occupied this winter keeping a reliable back-up electricity supply from it's coal power units. The failure to build replacement power stations was mentioned briefly at the Tory conference today. Maybe they're getting their excuses in early.

The respected energy analysts Platts say..."Outright power prices across Europe turned bullish last week after EDF cuts its nuclear production target for the remainder of the year as well as 2017 with a number of planned refueling outages in the first quarter reducing winter supply further". With UK CCGT possibly compromised in cold spells by reduced gas storage then Drax might have a field day.

Drax said in June in their half-yearly report that on the coal side of the business they would... - Capture peaks, avoid low value periods - Increased prompt market opportunities With the reduction in gas storage in the UK and the problems with French nuclear leading to lower interconnector imports, looks to me like their will be increased volatility in the market and some huge opportunities for valuable sales in the prompt market. Look out for the Grid publication of it's Winter Outlook.sometime in late September. The surging value of short-term wholesale electricity sales in mid-September maybe showed a trailer of the winter to come.

Just invested a small sum on the basis of the predictions of very narrow power supply margins this winter and I guess increased reliance on the Drax output. There are outages in the French nuclear sector which will restrict the 4% or so of UK electricity which we import via the interconnector, at least until around December time. With such narrow margins this pushes our supply problems close to critical especially if you we have a cold spell.

I thought edr was the quiet man of UK onshore O&G but judging by the activity here today, it's the Marie Celeste!

The extra barrels due in early 2017 will raise Egdon's oil production by over 50%.

Yes, and Proactive Investors said on the 9th September that the update on the CPR for Wrestle is expected "imminently". Given that it was reported that the report was nearing completion back in June, I should hope so too.With new oil expected in H2, looks like lots of good news on the near horizon - Egdon, the quiet man of onshore O&G.

October 6th is target date for ministerial decision on Cuadrilla appeal. Leaves time for the Brexit dust to settle.

I beg your pardon, suddenly up 7%, great news.

As with Q2 markets took no notice of brilliant results. Maybe analysts need to digest the info.

Reports in the press suggest China is increasingly moving into high tech semiconductor based industries and are doing so by piggy-backing on ARM semiconductor designs for which they pay a fee. So behind the so-called slowdown in China is an economic change which will benefit rather than challenge ARM's revenues. The use of ARM's more advanced designs such as the A9 brings with it increased per unit revenue. It is also possible of course that the Chinese might wish to kickstart this move by using £2 billion of their small change to control the company. There are of course always rumours that Intel might be interested in an approach for ARM.

I'm out at a small profit, simply because I don't understand the product. No doubt the SP will rocket. Good luck guys.

i'm ignorant on these matters but whoever is buying here seemed prepared to pay the ask at 3p so there may still be legs here.

There were a succession of £2K buys today, presumably to the same buyer, I know it's not Warren Buffet but let's hope they have some expertise that sees the new venture as worth investing in.