Member Info for MarktheSpark

I do wonder if WTB is a no-brainer. Leading up to the results IMO I think we are in a win-win situation. If revenue is up, which is what I expect, all well and good and a healthy jump in the SP. If results are less than expected, then this will resurrect the theory that WTB should be broken up into two entities, which tends also to please the market. My only worry is that the company says something pessimistic about the future. The market responds to the barometer not the thermometer and such pessimism would be unwelcome. This is what happened with DC, a very healthy revenue rise but expressed worries about Brexit and a crash in the SP.

The minister with responsibility for climate change initiatives, Mr Hurd has today signalled a rethink by the government on CCS. He said he expected to include ideas for developing carbon capture and storage in the Carbon Emissions Reduction Plan within three months. Drax of course were at the vanguard of developing CCS technology until George Osbourne removed the finance. Presumably they still have the plans down the back of the sofa or somewhere which probably puts them in a good. position to benefit from any new initiatives.

Just thinking about possible risks to oil supply in 2017.... 1. New sanctions against Iran by Trump. 2. Political breakdown in Venezuela. 3. Continued rebel sabotage against oil facilities in Nigeria. 4. Political unrest in Saudi Arabia leading to Saudi squeezing supply further to support POO & local economic wellbeing. 5. Similar scenario in Russia. 6. Continued civil war in Libya. 7. Huge cuts in exploration in the the last 5 years leading to reductions in replacement of depleted oil fields. I'm sure one could list contrary scenarios but overall these risks combined with the OPEC agreement make me think O&G, far from being a risky play in 2017, might well be a useful hedge especially as the area is likely to be less effected by Brexit than many other areas of the economy.

It's a depressingly familiar story that while the US has got on with progressing their onshore natural O&G resources the UK has barely reached snail's pace. Let's hope the council has the courage to give the planning approval on Wednesday. Given the planning officer's recommendation it's difficult to see how they can refuse. In any event 2017 must be the year when Egdon increases it's output by 50% and is able to hedge forward at over $50 a barrel.

Yes Mostyn, spreading lies is not any sort of joke and wins you the award for Bowler Hat of the year on this board.

It's the North Lincolnshire planning committee so I guess so.

I'm no accountant but the H1 accounts suggest Drax sold their electricity at around £43 per mwh in 2015/16. I'm not sure what proportion of their output attracts the CfD price of £112 in today's money but it certainly looks like a very good deal.

Next two meetings of the planning committee are 11th Jan and 8th Feb.

This announcement gives Drax a guaranteed income stream which allows them to finance their diversification via the acquisition of Opus. It will be interesting to see their strategic view (and the government's) regarding the three remaining coal fired units, whether to convert them to biomass as well, or whether they consider that there remains a place for coal fired generation as part of a secure national electricity supply. In any event the new CfD gives them a solid future. Good news for Drax and UK plc.

House of Commons reports suggests "Electricity bills could go up by £30 each year by 2020 and power "rationed" due to “mismanagement" of the UK's electricity networks and the increasing cost of emergency supplies, MPs have warned.". Basically in persuit of climate change objectives the govrment forgot that renewables are weather dependent and require significant fossil fuel back-up.

Up 2% today which is a lot for Drax, partly probably a broker upgrade but I wonder if there's also a whisper about the European decision re subsidies, let's hope so.

WTB is one of those stocks where you can get a fair idea of their trading just by looking around. The car parks of the Premier Inns I pass are pretty full, as are the Costa's. The Costa Christmas offers look enticing and the loyalty card is a success. On the supply side the price of coffee has fallen in the last month and there are prospects of good harvests next year. To put it baldly, they're selling a stimulant drug and a comfy place to have sex, how can they fail !! I've not bought in yet but looking for the low point.

Gas market 4mcm long today but no LPG tankers due into Milford Haven (on which we increasingly rely) for at least the next 7 days while we expect a period of below average temperatures, so much increased demand from heating and electricity generation. There is no large scale storage as Rough is out of action and the Norwegian and Dutch pipelines are running at full capacity. Not sure what the fall back position is, presumably withdrawal from smaller scale storage but I'm not sure how long that will last. Not much market reaction so I guess they must feel the system can cope with just the pipeline imports. But interesting times.

Gas market 4mcm long today but no LPG tankers due into Milford Haven (on which we increasingly rely) for at least the next 7 days while we expect a period of below average temperatures, so much increased demand from heating and electricity generation..There is no large scale storage as Rough is out of action and the Norwegian and Dutch pipelines are running at full capacity. Not sure what the fall back position is, presumably withdrawal from smaller scale storage but I'm not sure how long that will last. Interesting times.

CCGT power output close to it's maximum yesterday (Sat) and it's not even the depth of winter and there is reduced weekend industrial demand. The next couple of days are forecast nippy and lowish winds, probably see back-up coal stations come on stream, that's what you get when you put loads of intermittent renewables into the system.

Just been listening to the House of Lords economic committee questioning the heads of the Grid and Ofgen about energy prices, bewildering isn't in it. The NG guy seemed to be saying it's nothing to do with me guv, we're just the plumbers, and the Ofgen guy says yes it's our concern but the government make all the decisions so it's not our fault. Felt like Lord Darling (ex Labour chanchellor) was spitting blood. Looks like successive governments including his have devised incentives, in one form or another, to back renewables in the name of supporting green objectives, forgetting the distorting effects on the rest of the energy industry.

We are heading into a couple of weeks when our weather will be dominated by a high pressure system, meaning crisp nights and slow wind speeds. It'll be interesting to see how the Grid system copes. Presumably Drax benefits by being able to sell it's power into a tight wholesale market.

Presumably the Council wanted to keep their head down (even on conventional exploration) until after the Third judgement and Javid's decision on Cuadrilla's second well near Blackpool. It'll be interesting to see what, if anything, Hammond has to say this week on energy. In an under-reported comment in the House last month he noted that our energy supply would require a £100 billion investment over the next 20 years or so. That means significant Government intervention. it's worth remembering how crap or energy supply situation is and how much shale could mean to our economy if things go well.

Yes wind turbines were shut down to avoid damage to the rotors when the wind speed is above their safe maximum working capacity.

Dutch interconnector running in export mode this morning for the first time in months - suggests more strain on the European power system.