Member Info for Markshares

Seem crazy to me to be able to buy this far below what the placing price will be, I'm surprised seafox themselves haven't been snapping up everything under 10p up to now, given their ambitions to buy the company out.

Struggling to see the downside from here(?)

Could the price fall over last couple of days just have been because of people who bought in short term for a binary play on the refinancing deal coming through and then selling out on news? Yours think they are probably sold up by now if so, so run back up to 10p short term, and beyond that medium term- thoughts anyone?

You do spout a lot of nonsense earache and consistently get things wrong, but I'll just let "you do you" and I agree that mogp chat should be left to the Spac board.

Earache, weren't you ****ging off the idea of investing in a shall with cash far below market cap,pon the Mountfield board?

"MS. I'd rather be invested where cash in hand was well above the sp so if "Cathal has his reasons for investing here when SP is well above cash in hand," then something's wrong with your reading between the lines."

Any, do you need an "interim name" when you already have one? Just makes no sense to change the name to something completely unconnected to ORPH, if you already have exact intentions of spinning an ORPH asset into it. I think there are legitimate questions about insider trading too - it's pretty much the DEFINITION of insider trading to buy into a company you know is about to get a boost from a company you are executive chairman for and vice/versa.

This coupled with, what I believe, were comments by Cathal trying to draw a line under this, means it will have nothing to do with ORPH, though that doesn't mean it won't be a success. I do agree on your other points about not buying into a spac with low cash vs marketcap on a whim.

I think he was relatively clear that it wouldn't have anything to do with OO. Ask yourself why they would bother renaming to UK Spac if anything of OO was to be spun into it? It would presumably need an instant name change again.

Yes, I noticed a subtle change in the message there, went from a pretty definitive 'we'll give it back to shareholders' to a strong hint that he had a better idea for it.

I meant unlikely to backdate the date

NST, no - it's very UNLIKELY to say that the ex-dividend date will be in the future, as is always the case BUT the result is still the same. eg:

Share price sits at 30p at 4:30 on a given day
Next day 7am RNS drops stating £200m sale of FLu-V
Oprh owning ~50% sees the SP open at maybe 40p on the day.
On dividend date, ORPH SP falls back by ~ -£100m on the market cap.

New investors still have no way of entering and reaping all the benefits as the benefit is priced in to the new SP. The only way they can benefit is if they believe the opening price significantly undervalues the deal (eg opens at 32p, pricing ORPH without the flu-v asset at just £100m marketcap), but then we can all benefit from a bad misprice and generally holders are for more knowledgeable and fast to act in these instances than non-holders.

I've been pretty outspoken against EQTEC in the past but I was very surprised with todays news and frankly amazed it didn't go 100%+

Whouse, there is no "chance to get in" after a 7am rns because it opens at a price which factors in the news. The chance to get in is now, not after the horse has bolted.

I suspect you do, for a start

Longinvestments, it was about 26.5 million two weeks ago, so if it was a sell of theres I would say 800,000 shares would certainly "make a dent" in whatever they had left

honestly rather it was invesco getting another sell out of the way, than someone buying

No Liam, it would be a 7am announcement and relate to a future ex-dividend date. The only worry is not holding the shares prior to the 7am RNS as they would open up and effectively lock you out of the benefit

Your egg analogy is completely wrong too, it doesn't matter if you add a billion eggs to your lot, if the price is still 26p per egg.

You're posting incorrections, thats the problem.

youre creating a strawman argument, earache. He was talking specifically about HVO holders and what their holding would now be worth, compared to last year. No one is saying HVO is still about, no one is saying venn is worthless or the countless other ramblings you are getting worked up about. If you had £10k of HVO shares on 26th Jan last year, then they were worth £55k on the same date in 2021.

Dont lose sight of the statement YOU had a problem with and make it about something else, nothing in the below is wrong:

"Why do some people think hVivo shareholders have only got a return of 70% on the ORPH takeover? Closing HVO price the day before the takeover was 11.62 and each HVO share got 2.47 ORPH shares. Therefore 11.62p is now worth 2.47 x 26p = 64.22p. By my calculations that’s a gain of 453% in a year."

Earache, honestly find it staggering you are trying to argue the toss on the maths of this one. The 15.5 price is factoring the premium that was paid on the share price as part of the deal, Hvo holders before the deal was announced were sitting on about 11.62p per share and as a result of the offer and subsequent takeover, each share rose by about about 450%, why can't you understand that?! It's baffling and so simple to understand. Without the offer, the 15.5 doesn't exist so why are you using that figure instead of the actual share price at the time before the offer?

You spout so much crap on this board, but like the other guy said, arguing 1+1 =3 is a new low for you, it's not even disputable when it's just simple maths

Earache, you do realise:

"If each HVO share of 11.62p (or 15.56p) was worth 2.47 ORPH shares then following the merger each of the converted shares was worth 11.62/2.47 = 4.70p ... That's your starting point if want to compare ORPH then with ORPH now, but leave HVO out of it. It's gone."

....equals +453% right? Exactly what Rod said, just processed in a different order? Youve basically had a go at his maths then proved him right.

"leave HVO out of it. It's gone."

literally the whole basis for the conversation was to say how much better HVO holders were from the final day to the 26p in Jan 2021, so why would you call him up on the calcs then say that?

Earache, what was wrong with the maths on that one?

Longinvestments, its simply not the case with special dividends, especially relating to non core assets. Lets say for example, flu-v is bought for £300m, in your opinion that would leave ORPH with a market cap of close to £0. In truth, it is very hard to put a value on a such an asset - its effectively worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it (and assuming that amount is enough for Seek to say "yes") then you also factor in the chance of it never being sold at all - so to insinuate that the entire special dividend will already be built into the entire share price is a bit ridiculous.

We have as many as four such special dividends lined up and you either consider them next to worthless or ORPH next to worthless, or see the potential that ORPH is just significantly undervalued. It is the last scenario that leaves people believing there is a significant chance of high returns from this point, before factoring in expansion and increased demand on the proper core assets and business.