Member Info for MarkGo

Good analysis Happy but here's the difference.

Dividends returned to pre- covid levels.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Eni-Boosts-Dividend-To-Pre-COVID-Level-After-Strong-Q2-Earnings.html

It couldn't happen, could it ??

Watch "Tucker: Brace yourselves, climate lockdowns are coming" on YouTube

https://youtu.be/gD9JulHePh8

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Hi Happy

Its always good to read your posts. Your words of positivity and faith in BP to come good eventually, helps a little for me to refocus from the reality of the current situation and underperformance of BP.

I read yesterday that you still believe that the SP could reach 4.50 by the year end. The last four months have been extremely poor from the 3.20s in March, the 3.30s in June to the 280s in near August.

If not the much awaited Q2 results, when only a few months ago many posters were predicting 3.50, 3.75 or even 4.00 by Q2, then what do you see will make the difference in the next four months ? The recovery is well underway. Our peers are outperforming us. What is going to be the pivot from market negativity towards BP.

Personally, I see a mild gain towards ex dividend day and maybe buybacks will give some minor, temporary support.

On buybacks, the last buybacks had the company buying up shares that were around 3.10 from memory. They are now 2.89. Not really financially astute but I am sure it benefited the boards bonus payments somehow. A stupid way to return excess cash to shareholders.

I would be interested to read your and other's views.

Great weekend all.

MarkGo

Exxon massively beat analysts expectations. Profits super surge and yet.....you guessed it. The SP down.

I hope that this isn't a pre warning for what is to come on Tuesday.

Exxon are due to report their Q2 results in 10 mins. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts. The numbers should be great.

In normal times I would expect this would give BP a lift.

licker

I have no idea like the rest. Seeing BP back in the 280's is unexplainable. The only ones who know are the ones who are controlling the SP. Maybe lack of liquidity is enabling market makers to manipulate the price.

Zac0_4

That's a possibility. The much discussed and hoped for re-rating may have happened. This SP could be fair value, the new normal. Comparisons with pre covid valuations meaningless.

Maybe a re-rated valuation based on risk. Risk of transition cost and ROI. Risk of return on investment of the multi-billions being invested. Will they all pay off.? Will BP massively overpay for the promise of returns that can only be estimated, best case scenario , desk top calculations.

Risk of future western government policy, COP26 in November and the risk of the climate pressure lobby on legislation.
Risk, or more of a certainty, that the price of oil will not remain at these high levels for more than a few years. If Opec+ restrictions are ended, as planned, at the end of 2022, we may see a free-for-all and a big drop in the poo and the resulting lack of revenue to continue investing in BP's long game of transition. Where would that leave BP's long term business plan ?

These are risks and there are probably many more.
Only time will tell if any of them were valid concerns.

Hey licker

Absolutely no need to apologise mate.

Have a fantastic day.

Licker

We are on the same team. Your hopes for the share price are totally aligned with mine. I am a long term holder of BP, in the 'hope' that the next 12 months plus will see an end to the uncertainty and turbulence and that we all make a lot of money out of being invested in BP and while we wait a loyalty payment via the dividend will be maintained and possibly, if not probably increased. ( a seperate debate I know )

I see from your posts that you have substantial funds invested in BP, as do I.
I also see that you believe market analysts and market movers are aware, in the main, of the upcoming results prior to announcement, so do I and you scratch your head as to the reason of BP's position, again, so do I.

Nothing would give me greater satisfaction if the results, next week, results in a lift in confidence and share price and commences a rally on the share price over coming months but I sense that something may not be right, as you post, are we missing something?

Have a great day.

MarkGo

Licker

A little bit uncalled for and unnecessary, you're better than that, usually.

Try not to let your frustration with your lack of comprehension as to why BP's share price is so low compared to it's peers with all the indicators YOU mention.

You post that you are racking your brains and can not understand what the reason is why the share price is where it is. So you have worked out there must be a reason for it but you have no idea why. Maybe delta or sentiment but you have also worked out that these apply to BP's peers as well, who are not seeing the downward pressure on their share prices.

So, let's wait and see what next week brings before you rubbish as childish a genuine possibility as to there being another possible, if not probable, answer to your thought provoking question, Are we missing something.

MarkGo

Are we missing something.

No trading update this quarter. BP's peers all doing good. A few days before the results,when those in the know already know the results and down around 2%. Against any other normality this is starting to smell.

Bigbadbaz

I agree with you. With oil's high average for the past quarter, what level of super stellar results on Tuesday will gain market support and pust the SP higher.

It has been clear for weeks that their results ' should ' be fantastic but here we are low 290's.

I am starting to reevaluate this great undervalued investment opportunity of ours. It's true value is only what anyone is prepared to pay for it.

Exxon's results are due at 14.30. Their premarket is lacklustre and only 1%+ rise yesterday. The market's expectations for Q2 results should be well beaten.

Do you read into this that the market has factored in all the good news in their current price and could this be the same problem with BP's SP. The market already knows that BP's results ' should be stellar. I truly hope that they do not dissapoint.

So maybe regardless of BP's results, there will be no real interest from the market in BP. A small lift towards ex dividend day and then flatlining again.

The recovery is underway and irreversible.

Today, the spivs and wideboys/girls of markets across the globe are creating the gounds for legal theft.

Dont take any notice of this totally manufacturied market scam. Do nothing with your shares apart from topping up.

Due to automatic stop/losses on millions of stock and share accounts around the world, these traders, ten levels below second hand car sales spivs, are hoovering up innocent, decent folks hard earned investments.

The overblown and stale covid data is being misused and abused, to crash equities , the good news is its coming to an end and the snake oil salesmen are milking the last pint out of it.

Hold tight. If you are not a trader or need to sell your shares maybe switch off and check Cards share price in 2022.

Have faith in Card and all other equities today. Card is a 12 - 24 month double bagger. All other equities will recover from today.

Hi flyer2020

I hope you are having a great weekend. ' Phew what a scorcher !!!

Reading through the Opec+ link below. It does include most of the rumours from last week. Probably as good as could have been expected. Prior to the Saudi / UAE impasse, I believe the market was looking for an adjustment upward of production of 0.5m bpd so the Carlet's increase of production by 0.4 m bpd should help supporting the current price of oil and assist in pushing prices higher in my opinion.

Running through the press release is Opec's clear intention to manage supply on a month by month decision making process with OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings for the entire duration until the end of 2022 and with this extension, there is nothing to suggest that this agreement will not be extended further nearer the time if beneficial.

So, in my opinion, all looks positive from the meeting and as good as could be have been hoped for. No nasty surprise and, it seems, the various countries baseline adjustments have been agreed. A compromise, all happy, for now.

I do not expect that this agreement will have any positive effect on the SP, due to current market sentiment explained so well by fantastic posters on this forum, but equally I can not see any negatives.

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/6512.htm

Onwards and upwards, sooner or later.

Good luck to all.

MarkGo

NSS

Hi mate. Your calculations are right. I did see your first message but I did not intend to post anything other than the ' on paper' loss during these turbulent times. I did not want to reply and seem crass but I did not want you to think I am ignorant.

Hi Sigma1

Superb . Thank you for your response.

Morning Mojo

I hope you're having a great weekend. I appreciate your post, thanks, and your honest opinion.

I have decided to just hold on and see this period through. I have to say also that I am more neutral/negative in the short to medium term than I was with BP. I sense Q2 will be a non-event for the SP regardless of the any positive news due to market sentiment.

Anyway, let's see what happens.
Cheers Mojo
MarkGo

Morning Charles.

You are right. There is a unnecessary trait that runs through some of his posts. I am not sure why Peter does it. Some people do that sort of thing on forums just to get a response.