Member Info for MarketViking

Let's see what it is in a couple of years.

Yeah, it's one for the long term locker for now.

(Don't know whether any of you gentlemen are into gold stocks, BTW? I've got my eye on a certain Brazilian mining company right now. Could be interesting.)

"...profit taking and fearful PI's are driving this down..."
"...Just hold is my advice to you all..."

Totally agree.

@Convb
You started buying at 11p...right? But now the jolly old crystal ball is telling you it's going to be 6p on such-and-such a day a couple of months in the future? :-)
You interest me buddy - your posts seem to evince sophisticated knowledge and understanding. And yet....

@HT Personally I don't see it going lower than somewhere in the 8-9p range. But in the long run this is likely to be very strong. (Remember, money committed to an investment should generally be for 3-5 years at least. Sometimes big gains can be made much sooner than that - it happens. But as a rule we should be thinking in terms of years.)

@Nofear
One things is for sure - people who sell now will not (almost 100% certainly) be looking back in 36 months time and saying "hahahahaha".
But hey, there are folks who get this and others who don't. Just how it is.

I reckon this whole field is still (to find a suitably aeronautical analogy) flying well under the radar of most investors. A few days ago I was following an online investors meet-up. Someone submitted a question about sustainable aviation fuel and its potential production in the UK, etc. The so-called 'energy expert' was completely thrown. And I mean thrown! His answer was something along the lines: "er...um...well...there IS no sustainable option for aviation - that's the problem. I can't see battery powered airliners any time soon, so aviation is an example of an area where we will have to go on burning fossil fuel, because there is no alternative". Literally! He said something along those lines!

I've noticed a similar thing in mainstream media too - almost everything they have to say about flying seems to be predicated on the assumption that reducing carbon = reducing flying.

We are ahead of the curve. At some point this is going to explode into general knowledge :-)

There will be a lot of serious players who want to get in, but who are waiting (very sensibly, from their point-of-view) for it to bottom out and stabilise. It's not entirely without risk to hold back all of their powder though - another significant announcement could drop in the meantime, sending us north again!
It's worth pointing out, I guess, that the market initially valued the news of the Southwest Airlines deal at about 8p - that's roughly where things held throughout the Wednesday of the announcement, isn't it? It would probably have ticked up a bit, as the market digested the news - but instead there was a massive pile-in on Thursday, and it seems as if many (most?) of these guys were short-termers. They need to be shaken out of the tree now.

Out they all come: "Mum! It's too cheap! It's getting cheaper!"

More and more people who think long term will be going INTO the discount store, right now.

This is how the patient get rich, while amateurs lose money and/or throw away potential future gains for a few pennies today.

Just the way it is, I guess...

@convb "...why would VLS be a £550m market cap company?..."
To take a company in the EV space, we could equally ask why Lucid is an $86.5 billion market cap company...
They are at a more advanced stage than VLS. But they are nowhere remotely close to producing at volume. They have a production facility which won't be ready for at least another year.... They don't have cash to continue for that long before going into debt... For sure I see potential there - but it's far from being cut and dried.
Sometimes these things don't make much logical sense...

Agree with 'each to his own view' over share price. Personally I wouldn't even make any firm predictions for the short term. The market will decide. We'll see what we see.

Yeah, I did very briefly consider taking out my initial investment at the last peak (at that point I had around 250,000 shares bought at a cost average of about 5p!!) then leave the remaining "free shares" for the long haul, throwing away the key, so to say. But instead I decided to go for maximum hold for the time being. I have bought another 30,000 shares since the peak - a few at around 12p most at around 10.4p. If and when it gets to 25p I'd again have to reassess whether to take back my initial investment, I guess.
(I'd find it surprisingly hard to play safe, though, because in the long run I feel pretty certain this son-b+tch is going UP!)

You're right Y-Alam, the market starts pricing in potential ahead of time, and sometimes does it with almost shocking speed. What I meant about it being at an early stage was the company itself rather than the price. The question I'm chewing over is what is the maximum thinkable upside for Velocys in, let's say, 15 years time from now. There are a heap of unknowns, of course. But assuming best possible outcomes early on, rapid and widespread expansion in a highly favourable political climate, and assuming that VLS maybe retains a large share in several plants themselves - as well as selling their tech to numerous third parties around the world....well...it is almost scary ('scary' in a good way!)

In the immediate short term nothing at all would surprise me. It could rocket again - maybe even reaching a new high - then plunge right back again. It could bottom out and start creeping up - kind of like it was doing for several weeks prior to 'magic-Wednesday' and 'moonshot Thursday'. Or it could go on sinking - maybe back to the 6-7p range in the worst case scenario.
I feel bad for people who came in at the peak. But then, hindsight is a wonderful thing! At that point it _could_ have continued rising (nothing being impossible in this game.) And, if they are professional and hold their nerve, it is very likely that they will make a lot of gains at the end of the day. But folks need to understand we are still at an early stage here. The engines are revving up and that SAF-powered airliner is thundering down the runway now, but it isn't airborne yet - much less at cruising altitude!

Yeah, the Southwest Airlines deal, in particular, was a huge step forwards. IMO. The market may not (yet) have fully digested how significant this is.

I find these big volatile shifts fascinating, ant moss. If nothing fundamental has changed, then what we are seeing is raw human psychology at work - and it is manifested as scarily irrational crowd behaviour. A few days ago people were tripping over their shoe laces to pull the trigger at 13p or 14p, but now some of them are willing - perhaps even desperate - to SELL their shares at 10p? 9p?? 8p?? ? Eeeeer...why would anyone DO that? I guess, because they are afraid at some deep level they are going to go on sinking down and never come back back up!? But they must understand that this is (almost completely certainly) not going to happen!? Sure there is an element of risk to any investment, inasmuch that the company could go into a downward spiral and ultimately fail. But in that regard we would have to be talking about some kind of catastrophic change to the fundamentals. Here literally nothing has changed! If anything the whole outlook or SAF is only getting better and better. Medium-to longterm the only way is (almost certainly) going to be up, up and UP. Yet there are people out there selling at a loss when they should be damn well BUYING more...

I dunno...maybe the market needs some/most people to behave irrationally? Maybe that's how it works? Maybe it really is a giant system to transfer the money from the dumb to smart? :-0

Wanna make some money, fellers? :-)
Sometimes things get a little crazy - people start panicking and behaving like headless chickens. That is the time to take a cool calm look at the fundamentals - has anything changed? Is the upside still there? If so, then this is what you do:

BUY when there is blood on the streets!
BUY when everyone seems desperate to sell!
Feel greed where the mupptey masses feel bovine fear!
Run into the discount store when others are running out hollering "it's too cheap! And It's getting cheaper!"
Suck up those shares! Pile 'em high!

Then you just smoke a ciggy, sip some Jack Daniels, and wait...(and wait...)

@Hawkes Bay
Yep. There could be a rise on Monday, IMO. All things remaining equal, I find it hard to see it ever going very much under 9p. But that's "all things remaining equal". Any significant new developments could change the game, of course.
(Long term there is still excellent upside.)

**Hello not Hotel (sorry! :-D)

I started buying back in the summer, Hotel - I bought loads right in the nadir at under 5p :-P