Member Info for MarketViking

Ah well, I don't really do the partisan Brexit stuff MM ;-)
(I will say this: as someone who lived in Germany when I was a youngster, who learned their lingo, who still has friends there, and who keeps an eye on the events over there, things look _far_ from being rosy right now. They are facing a winter energy catastrophe which makes anything in the UK look like a spilled cup of coffee by comparison. And as for France....pffff...the situation there would actually be funny if it weren't so serious.)

Well hey, guys, it's a speculative investment. By definition there is risk - otherwise the SP would be (much) higher. Either it'll work and make a fairly nice little pile of money.......or it wont.
What convinced me to take a punt was when I discovered that the UK government is not just in bed with VLS but pretty much inside their panties. When something enjoys political support it doesn't easily fail, in my experience.

"...I also believe that the prices at current levels will show an ROI as the SP is undervalued even if Velocys remains a small-time player within the UK in the next 5 to 10 years..."
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This is my point, Garry. I find it hard to see this being catastrophic - even in the worst case scenario. And a good scenario (let's say 20+ plants worldwide using their technology) makes this well worth a 20K punt for me.
To state the obvious: no, of course people shouldn't be yoloing VLS or whatever. But at the current price, it seems worth a shot.

@Garry
As far as the UK goes, VLS enjoy significant government/political support. It seems to me to be a near cert that there will be several plants here using their technology - which will probably be operational (in the case of Altalto) or under construction by 2025. It seems to me that the current valuation (in the region of 5.5p per share) is still a relatively safe place to enter?

The whole concept of SAF hasn't yet permeated public consciousness - both the general public and the mainstream media seem entirely ignorant of it. I remember seeing some TV commentator, about a year ago, casually telling his viewers that 'people will have to fly less in future because there is no way for commercial aviation to decarbonise, blah, blah' I don't think it was bad-faith journalism, or whatever They are just ignorant and in the dark. But at some point, knowledge about this will explode. Then SAF will be like big tech was over the last 10 or 15 years - one of the seriously big new things. We are in there right at the ground floor. Knowledge = money, gentlemen. And early knowledge = wonga-money :-)

Never fear MyrtleMan, I'm locked and loaded at a cost average under 5p. Those b+st+rds ain't having anything cheap from me!:-D

If it does go super-spikey again, I'll have the exact same conundrum as I did last year :-0 If you've loaded up the truck at under 5p, what do you do if it rockets to over 15p? Do you cut and run and fill your f++ing boots? Or are you thinking: 'hold on, this could/should be 50p plus within 1-2 years?' Last time I could have cashed out with profits of about 27K - and then bought back in at the same starting price a few months later! But my timing left me with profits of less than half of this! Eeek! (Of course, hindsight is a wonderful thing. And gaining 11-12K within a few days is, I guess, still better than a kick up the bum. But could have been even more beautiful...)

I don't know if I'm the only one who is getting a deja-vu feeling here? I'm thinking of autumn last year - long downwards trend fizzles out...bit of an up tick...then.....APOLLO ROCKET BABY....(then back to earth, of course....)
Could history be about to repeat itself? :-)

@Convb
Totally agree - especially about Uranium. The economy might be in the can, but a new generation of reactors is a matter of strategic national interest, IMO. Governments will make it happen. More generally, though, I fear some commodities could be dragged down a bit in the short term. But I reckon there is potential for them to recover fast and very hard.
I think history shows us there might be opportunities right now. Back in the 1970s there were some eyeball-poppers, weren't there? In the case of some commodities producers (admittedly the real outliers) there were gains of over 20,000% over 2-5 years!

Question for Convb:
Do you agree with me that we are (almost certainly) at the early stages of a commodities super cycle?
If so, I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts as regards the implications of this for SAF.

@latpulldown
I'm not a chart-master, but it seems to me that it's too early to say whether this is now trending down. Looking at the charts on a bigger timescale, today could still be a pull-back within an overall upwards trend. In any case, this type of investment is always a long game. (I first started buying VLS getting towards a year ago when it was under 5p...)

Patience. The stock market takes money from the impatient and gives it to the patient :-P

Re. VLS market cap...yeah it will likely be post 2027 that things will get properly interesting. However, when there is clear policy support from the government, and when construction has started in Immingham, the market should start to price in potential, IMHO.

Philip66 is an interesting concept - converting waste cooking oil to diesel. I'd want to have a closer look at the feedstock side of things though. There must be a limit as to how much cooking oil a country the size of the UK is using? (In the case of VLS the feedstock isn't just _one_ type of waste - it is all waste other than metal stone or glass.) But cooking oil...hm...how scalable is that? How much green Diesel is the UK realistically going to be able to produce? Also, Diesel as a fuel is kind of on the way out, as land based vehicles transition to use hydrogen or electricity (something which is still several decades away - at least - for commercial aviation.) These are the questions I'd have. But very interesting all the same.

Well, didn't happen today - but the overall trend is upwards as far as I can see

What d'you reckon guys?

Oh I see, Roll Royce STOCK. Hm, I've completely taken my eye off of that one in the last couple of months, to be honest. I guess they had to "take off" (pun intended) sooner or later :-D

@covb
It's just a sensible VW for me, I'm afraid ;-) I do have some quite serious watches though - Rolex, Patek, Jaeger LeCoultre...
Yes, have a great weekend! ;-)

@share4
I think convb has - the past - been unduly pessimistic about VLS. But I guess he's entitled to his opinion. Nobody should ever be basing investment decisions on anonymous internet chat, so it's irrelevant what any of us say, really. I'm far from an expert in this field, but I did a fair amount of digging and research before first buying in at around 4.5p (my current cost average is around 5.6p.)

Bright future for SAF, I reckon