Member Info for MarketViking

"...Have to agree with Viking (well not the rape and pillage stuff)...."
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The way I see it, Jim, I'm just collecting my Danegeld from the markets :-D

"...Labour will be spending on uk green projects so probably a better prospect for VLS than current Govt..."
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Yep, I think Labour would be (even) better for companies like VLS . And I say that as a lifelong Tory voter:-0 (Mind you, whether Labour would be doing other crazy gang stuff like we've seen just recently from the SNP in Scotland is a whole other matter...)

Labour are _even more_ committed to this! (Starmer wants to "make the UK a green energy superpower", etc.

Yeah, they should have introduced SAF legislation by now. I believe the EU is currently deciding how to mirror the the IR Act? So it may be the British government is holding back to see what they do? There may be an institutional tendency to align closely with the EU still? I dunno. But legislation is a coming - and when it does other things may quickly flow from it.

Interesting. I've seen a couple of other US stocks that benefit (directly or indirectly) from the move to green energy have these kinds of sudden upwards moves just recently.

(About _half_ a decade away.)

My understanding is that RR are working on developing hydrogen powered jet engines as a technology of the more distant future, right? But, as Velocys CEO Henrik Wareborn has pointed out in response to investor questions, any truly viable alternative technologies to existing kerosene jet engines are literally decades away - whereas SAF is relevant in the more immediate future. I understand there are also significant safety issues surrounding hydrogen engines in aircraft (and the supply infrastructure on the ground for that matter) meaning some in the aviation industry doubt pretty seriously whether it would ever be a sensible route to go down? Now maybe all these problems can be overcome? But it isn't happening any time very soon. The point is, I guess, that there will be at least a lengthy window of time during which SAF jet engines will be the only viable green option for aviation...

I think the main issue is that investor sentiment (I mean completely in general - not just VLS investors) is pretty much in the toilet at this time! In the bull market people were more likely to pounce on good news. Now folks are much more hesitant and skeptical.
However, this is really long term play, isn't it? The reference projects aren't going to go on-site for another 2 years, and wont be completed and operational for another 4-5 years. The market could start to price in potential well ahead of that, but if/when that starts to happen is anyone's guess? This month? This year? Next year? It's an unknown. One thing has (in my humble opinion) a very solid likelihood: this stock should be drastically higher 5 years from now.

From the latest RNS:
"...Altalto expects to enter into construction in 2025 with commissioning and start up anticipated in 2027, at which point Velocys expects to generate revenue from reactor and catalyst sales, engineering services and technology licensing..."
BUT LATER:
"...Velocys expects to retain a reduced equity position in the Altalto project post the funding. The project is being jointly developed with British Airways..."

It isn't clear to me whether VLS plans to retain an equity position in Alto Alto long term. But if so, then that would have to imply some revenue from a share of the eventual SAF sales, right? This being in addition to reactor manufacture and licensing, and ongoing engineering services and supply of catalyst... And this would potentially increase their value quite significantly, wouldn't it...?

Respect. Locked and loaded.
Now VLS is essentially like an airliner standing on the end of the runway. Those big (SAF powered) engines are revving up and she's ready to roll! V1...V2...Rotate! :-)

These would be questions to put directly to Velocys. At the end of their latest RNS they say"For further information please refer to notes to editors or please contact Velocys +44 1865 800821"
Go for it :-P

@Expatbrat
In a certain way, you're right. Alto Alto is garbage!
Yeah, that's right. The feedstock will be complete GARBAGE
:-)

I predict that Exbrat will still be hate-posting on VLS in 10 years, greeting the news of the construction of yet another 4 plants in North America using VLS technology along the lines: "Huh, this doesn't mean anything. VLS is still rubbish! I haaaate them! Ya boo-snubs!" :-D

No kidding. Believe it or not, I bought another tranche this morning less than an hour before the latest bounce - for a whiskery little 'ole whisker above 4p! It brought my overall cost average down to around 4.8p. Happy days :-)

@GarryGraham
"...One was when I first started investing and my head was all over the place after a divorce. I threw £20k into a penny share and cashed out with a £5k profit. In the following years, it went through the roof and I could have made millions..."
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I guess one good strategy would have been to pull out your initial 20K and keep the 5K profit as shares - that would've completely covered your initial risk and delivered at least a hunk of the ultimate rewards! I think this is often a very good approach with early stage technology companies, in fact.

"...The second investment was in an oil exploratory company that was doing a virgin drill. I invested far too heavily and was burnt..."
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Commiserations, Garry. But I gotta say, exploratory drills always scream: 'THIS IS A PUNT - SMALL % RISK CAPITAL ONLY!'

As for VLS, I think you are right to remind folks to keep their feet on the ground, so to speak. But the fact they are partnering with major airlines, and that what they are doing is solidly in line with government policy (as well as the development grants they have received) isn't something to be taken lightly. No, of course that doesn't make anything 100% certain. No, of course people shouldn't be 'all-in', or whatever. Usual risk management rules absolutely apply! But we are big boys here, right? We know the risks and we work with them. That's the nature of our game. (However, as for VLS being a "lifestyle company"...meh...that doesn't seem to me like a very serious point, quite honesty...)

Don't get me wrong wrong, Yazo. I'd _LOVE_ it if VLS went to 20pin a short time frame. I've got quite a lot of skin in the game with a cost average a whisker over 5p. So a fast climb to 20 would make me several tens of Ks! But I'm positioned overall so that I can wait this one out as long as it takes. BTW I would likely sell half off my shares at 20p. 100% profit on my initial investment and a zero risk long-term ride on the remaining half of my holding...yeah...that wouldn't be bad :)

Yes...BUT
I see this as a long term play - the full potential is some years down the road. Yes, the price can move fast, but nobody should be buying in the hope of a quick slam-dunk, IMO.

Don't worry Garry, my pension has long ago been spunked on wine, wenches, and watches ;-)
I do find that some of the criticisms of VLS that one sees being bandied about singularly ignore the political context. I also find that there is a certain lack of understanding to the extent to which senior officers of the company are personally exposed to the share price - and thus the extent to which their own interests are aligned with those of investors.
(But, of course, you are right to say that nothing is a sure bet, we should be diversified, etc - I totally agree.)

@djm
In 5-10 years that isn't unthinkable by any means, IMO.

Not complicated, Garry. If it's under 5p it's a buy for me!
I don't want to be facetious or anything, but I can't help thinking of old Buffet quotes about how the stock market is really so simple that a child should understand it: buy when it's good 'n cheap, sell when it's good 'n expensive! Yet most folks wait until it's already pretty expensive before even thinking of buying - in the hope that it becomes super-overpriced at some point!:-0
(Yes, of course there's more to it that that - I'm basing on paid-for research and political "understanding". But still, I don't get the concept of waiting until it's halfway up before buying, or whatever...)

Thought I'd just BUMP this back up again.
I myself picked up another tranche of VLS for under 5p this morning. I still think it'd be lunacy to sell right now. (Obviously if people are leveraged, or if they need the money, or whatever...well I guess they gotta do what they gotta do. But any medium-longterm investor who can comfortably hold shouldn't even think of becoming the sucker in the room, IMO. Now is a time to be BUYING!)