RE: Dividends30 Jul 2020 10:34
14cr I will try to help but Im a little confused trying to understand your objective...
If your concern is customer P&L I would not worry as this has historically always come in <1% yoy. The latest update for H1 supports this ""Furthermore, the period-end position of Customer Trading Performance reverted to insignificant historical levels, with revenues from Customer Trading Performance representing approximately 1% of the total revenues in the period."
If you are trying to work out the decline in SP since the decline, Im not sure we can, but I believe the main factors are
Low volume = large unproportionate price swings (e.g historic We are 3.31% down on a 0.00097% of the free float volume)
Heavily traded due to no stamp duty - price movement confuses would be long time holders into selling
People taking profit (SP was 775 27 March 2020)
Short position increase , MW are attempting to push down the price selling off borrowed shares in small batches (I saw this yesterday on the book)
Lack of brokerage coverage / poor coverage - so many feel they are "flying" blind = increased uncertainty
Then as a result on this volatility combined with PLUS historic accounting confusion it makes come people jittery and in turn they sell cheap (= more selling pressure)
Definitely what we do need on H1r are brokers upgrades
IMHO we have cleared out many sellers and with if H1 results confirm something like my estimates ($1,40 interim & 50/100 BuyBacks) combined with many sellers already gone Im hoping we will have lift off. I wont be considering selling until at least 16
Finally I estimate we are sitting on at least $550 (probably 600) wth a max of $300 minimum capital reserve = $250m x 60% to distribute = MIN circa $1.10 interim + $50m BB
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