RE: CGX debbie3 Jun 2009 11:35
hiya, I was , as you were likely aware , a shorter of RBS B4 the ban and continued to add to my short position when lifted in the states. It was only when it got to the bottom and it became clear that HMG would not let RBS fail but support it that I closed and went in long. I have focused on RBS , amongst all other banks , pretty much period and was very surprised by the Q1 results. Should the interims be consistent with Q1 , then the market concensous of estimates will have to be revised dramatically and a re-rating given. The debt and HMG issue will persist to weigh down , but as I have mentioned B4 , I would sooner work with HMG as a shareholder when on the back foot restructuring rather than not and see the net asset base of RBS as both desirable , at valuations of mark to market and available to exercise continued disposal options. Whilst such may reduce earnings going forward , should RBS best manage to offload non core structural assets and associated costs and utilise such revenue realised to recapitalise and then share buy back primarily direct from HMG , then , RBS , imo , could start to outperform Barclays and build up to become a well placed no.3 behind HSBA/STAN.