Member Info for mark-expat

.... see my previous post and click on links. The continued issues with the remaining 2 irish banks remains lack of confidence in future fund raising ability , continued impaired loan exposure and the inability of these banks to communicate their absolute positions effectively. It was only 2 months ago that ALKB stated they did not need any more monies and today BKIR announce that they are happy with the proposed capital injection on the basis that in the worse case they can write off another c.3 billion euros without too many concerns , great! These stocks will yoyo around and are great trading stocks , but as a long term play , buying on the absolute lows and holding in the hope that more control is not exercised by the Irish government is probably as good as it gets.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0212/boi.html http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0212/bank.html Could still yoyo movements on both ALKB and BIR until said capital is fully agreed upon. Does not help that BIR infers that a similar value of the proposed new capital injection could be written off in impaired loans in a worse case scenario , bless the Irish , at least they have had recent better timing on the rugby pitch.

I must admit , Abbey National taking c.30% market share of mortgages up for grabs in 2008 and the opening of c.575,000 accounts over the year and making c.£1b was pretty impressive in todays economic backdrop. Yes they had some write downs and a leg up by the passing over of Bradford and Bingo and Alliance and Laughter by their kind parents Santander , but none the less , a good market gain position for furthering efforts in 2009/10.... - two views - makes you wonder how the other 70% was divided and who is loosing market share , the figures are out there ladies and gents. Well played Santander , they even made monies after shredding a load to that guy who madeoff with it stateside , bless.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKTRE5126VL20090203?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7868732.stm read into it what you will.

Well posted James , I will look out for you and post my thoughts based on my opinion and hopefully negotiate if we do not see eye to eye to get a balanced opinion that other members may work on, thanks ,gl.

... the value of this company though , imo , will surpass 400 on the slightest whimper of an upturn. Why , just look at its fundamentals and cash position. http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?ac=208687&username=markl1255&csi=213598&action=financials&sub_action=fundamentals&report_type=2 ... no one could predict the sell off on miners , you just had to hedge , but to say GEMD is in a 400 top rut position is a no go , this , imo , has fallen hard and will bounce hard ...

... fair comment , the mining sector became decimated , no excuses.

.... as I posted in the morning , a worthy risk. I got in at c.412 on the intraday auction ... not with my boots though... something is cooking on this one , the regulatory news being only one thing.. .

... interesting one this. RI in the throws , possible bid and goes ex-div in the morning ( subject to resolutions of RI being met , closure of which will be declared next week on 13th) . Extremely low volumes but known short positions possibly starting to be closed. I bought CFD'd into this one on yesterdays lows (41.66) and will be selling a position on a March Period Spread just B4 close today as a hedge against the possible 3.7p ex-div fall should others see fit to enable such. Will let you know how it works out!

... it looks like the negative rating Ireland received today re the worst economy in Europe , followed by Greece , knocked ALKB sideways, but they have recovered so there is some support but plenty of opportunity for profit taking from the recent lows should more weakness creep in. If the DOW holds and recovers , these will come up in sentiment , but could easily go lower on major indices weakness. LSE got scared today over possible regulation creeping into its markets but did see strong support at c.405 , so could recover well if todays news was an over reaction. Re shopping , as I do not live in the UK , no to the Morrisons question but if I did , I would likely do Lidl in the main and a combination of others for the luxury toothpaste and shaving gel if pushed!

STRASBOURG, France, Feb 3 (Reuters) - The European Union will mandate the central clearing of credit derivatives traded off exchanges to cut risk in markets, the bloc's top financial regulator said on Tuesday. EU Internal Market Commissioner Charlie McCreevy told members of the European Parliament that attempts to obtain industry backing for central clearing had failed. 'At the last minute they pulled out of an agreement and now a regulatory approach is necessary,' McCreevy said in a statement after a meeting with the EU assembly's economic and monetary affairs committee. 'I would urge parliament to support an amendment to give effect to this,' McCreevy said. This seems to have really has spooked the market ...

23/01/09 There are reasons to be bullish on the LSE. Yesterday's overall revenue numbers actually showed a 4% hike taking into account foreign exchange movements. While IPO activity has waned, secondary issues are soaring: in the three months to the end of December money raised on the LSE's markets was up 145%, to £29.7bn, the second biggest total ever recorded. The major risk is the ongoing economic malaise and that, frankly, is not likely to improve soon. Cautious hold says the Independent. Clearly the market thought differently , could be a speculative buy for those with deep pockets and a little stomach if stop losses get hit at C.400.

Some 70% of its business comes from the public sector / regulated industries, has a strong order book for the current year (c.85%) of anticipated revenue already secured , cash of c.£165m on its books on first half results - Yes some of their Middle East projects may slow down should the price of oil decide to turn pear shaped? , but governments are focusing on infrastructure development and if they pull key projects , then they will only have to call in WS to re-run the figures again which is a profitable exercise in itself. Big sell off in January / February and should the FTSE and DOW not decide to dive to new lows ? then WS might well be approaching some sought of level of support and could be one to consider, gl

I would also like a link to spot rough diamond prices if anyone has one , this link has some useful behind the scenes info that does not always get printed elsewhere http://www.miningmx.com/diamonds/

Ambrian analyst doubts Gem Diamonds optimism for 2009 and issues 'strong sell' guidance. http://uk.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUKL28026520090202 Interim statement is transparent , they noted c.$60m cash in hand, their (current) assets are worth c.8x market cap , but by mothballing some mines and reducing output and diamond prices falling , they will writedown asset values , which they have stated , they have debt , but not significant. This , like other miners , is not going to perform strongly whilst the downturn continues but , like many shares , will recover strongly when such demand returns, whenever that may be! It has always had a bit of a swing this one , but with a reasonably strong cash position , I think it should see itself through the next year or so , but if demand drops to a standstill and prices of diamonds drops off still further , then I would not be surprised to see it weaken further on sentiment alone.

Boeing is the biggest customer of the mid-cap aerospace engineer (it accounts for about 12 per cent of sales), which means that it is starting to feel the fallout from a strike that has paralysed production at the US aircraft maker for the past six weeks. Senior has already moved to a three-day week at some of its plants but said yesterday that an extension of the dispute until the end of the year would wipe £10 million off sales and £3 million off profits. Russia cancels 15 Boeing Dreamliners http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7859155.stm up and down this share of late - maybe this news has been expected and priced in , maybe further weakness?

I am pretty sure from those in did sell , hope so anyway. As I've mentioned B4 , when they ALKB weakness it is usually quite a hard hit , worth trading the swings , as previously mentioned , good luck.

http://www.cooksongroup.co.uk/cookson/regulatorynews_item.jsp?ref=39200 looks like everything is underwritten , just seeing where cookson wants to settle

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/4375411/Iberia-losses-fail-to-halt-share-rise-as-Walsh-flies-in-for-talks.html looks like both parties are keen to do a deal .. positive reading anyway!